Invest 99S - S. Indian Ocean

[Coredesat]

22/1430 UTC 13.9S 105.1E T1.5/1.5 99S

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 105.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT
ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[MiamiensisWx]

Outflow is better established now, but convection is less intense than previously. It appears to be under shear.

[Coredesat]

Definitely sheared:

[MiamiensisWx]

It is looking much less organized now!

[P.K.]

IDW10900
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WST on Saturday the 24th of December 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST

Tropical Low
Location : near 16S 096E at 11am Saturday
about 440 kilometres south southwest of Cocos Islands
Central Pressure : 1004hPa
Recent movement : west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : low
Sunday : low
Monday : low

REMARKS - The low is expected to continue to move steadily toward the west
southwest and weaken over the next 24 hours. A shipping warning is current for
gales on the southern side of the low as a strong high passes to the south.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **

[Coredesat]

It's dead, Jim:

24/2030 UTC 17.3S 91.9E TOO WEAK 99S