Anyone ready to go out on the limb?

[Steve]

I still need until maybe 1pmCDT tomorrow before I make the call. I busted on a Texas storm last year, so I'm hesitant to go with what I think I've been seeing (generally along with JK in PCB, StormsFury, ETA, Euro, and maybe the Independent team). Just about every model is bullish on ridging from the east. And there is sat. evidence that a big push is coming. Mid-point of the 18z models is around SC LA. If they hold (which I don't necessarily think they will), rain problems anywhere from Cocodrie-Pensacola.

Arguing for an eastern bias is the general flow across the eastern Gulf (S-SW) and a weakness out ahead of the NW Gulf trof. Shear-wise, the Gulf is a mixed bag. But the NC Gulf States (LA, MS, AL) have a strong westerly jet across the area (>60k).

A key tomorrow is where the LLC or CoC develops in relation to 20N/90W. If it were to reform further north, you'd have to seriously consider a MS/AL/FL rain event. The heaviest rains in that scenario might stretch from Bay Co. to Leon Co., FL and across the peninsula (who everyone knows doesn't need any more rain).

I'm looking for resolutions on 2 other things tomorrow: does the punch behind the Gulf States trof start to lift out, and how fast does the ULL in the BOC move SW.

Hmmmmm.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

Steve, I haven't seen the trough in Texas coming any further south today, that's for sure ... the EURO tonight is bullish now on a tropical low 1007 mb with 33.9 kt winds at 850mb and the ETA is also (Tropical Storm --- 37.9 kts at 850mb) around Central/Western LA) ... the other models are coming to a consensus of that area as well ...

Right now, thunderstorms are over Lower SC (here) and also over Florida with new convection developing over the Yucatan now ...

My call still stands from the past few days..

[southerngale]

I have no idea at this point. This is what a local met had to say Saturday afternoon. I must point out though, that out of the 3 mets at this station, he is usually the most dramatic.

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADED FOR THE GULF!! THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IT DEVELOP OR STAY A STRONG WAVE??

Nice day today with light northeast winds behind our front from last week. This will change though as deep tropical moisture works this way from the Yucatan. THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND A DEPRESSION MAY FORM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. The system will be over water by tonight. OUR FORECAST WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GULF! Satellite shows good inflow to the system from the east. As the weak upper low moves southwest out of the way a ridge of high pressure aloft will build Sunday which should allow for development. The question now is will it develop or stay a strong wave? If it doesn't develop we'll see rain as early as Monday along the coast. If it DOES DEVELOP then the rain will probably hold off until Tuesday. One thing is for sure MODELS ARE TOO FAST WITH THE SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS!!!! And is always the case models are all over the place with location and where the system goes. Personally I think that the system will develop and move toward the north and northwest as the mid level high builds west through Florida. I'll go with showers approaching the coast Monday with a better coverage of heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Once again stay tuned to Channel 6 on this developing tropical weather event!!

Forecasted By: Kerry Cooper
Last Updated: June 28, 2003 - 3:16PM

[wxman57]

The upper low over the BOC is driving the moisture straight NNW toward Southeast LA now. Since last night, the convection has made it all the way from the northern Yucatan to halfway to Metairie. I'd say you're likely in line for some significant rain there by tonight/tomorrow. But there's currently too much shear out there for any TD to develop today.