Will Bill make it to hurricane?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:08 pm

Close call because of the warm waters 84*F-88*F in GOM but I say the it wont get to hurricane status but it will be a strong storm with 65-70 mph winds.

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:16 pm

A conditional No vote ...

The overall environment of Bill is slightly improving ... but it still has more of a subtropical look to it than tropical ... meanwhile, it will become purely tropical in nature, but the structuring will take some time ... slow intensification is likely right now ... but until the storm can become less lopsided (or top-heavy), the chances of Bill becoming a hurricane are very slim ...

My initial forecast intensity is 50-60 mph T.S. at the time of landfall ...

OtherHD · #3 Postby **OtherHD** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:18 pm

Moderate TS

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:41 pm

The storm as has at least another 24 hours before it makes landfall, it continues to get better organized and high pressure ridge is building over the storm. Also the gulf is nortourious for rapidly intensfying Tropical Cyclones, just within a few hours before landfall. I think minimal hurricane status, is likely.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 12:46 pm

Nope ..No cane. :wink:

JetMaxx · #6 Postby **JetMaxx** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 1:00 pm

IMO if T.S. Bill isn't a hurricane by landfall, he'll be very close (65-70 mph); and a minimal hurricane won't surprise me.

The biggest threat I see from Bill is the potential for severe, life threatening flash floods....along and east of the storm track from Louisiana/ Mississippi to Georgia and the Carolinas, where rainfall has been well above normal since early May (24.02" at my location near Atlanta, GA).

PW

#7 Postby **wx247** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 1:41 pm

I agree... close call, but like Stormsfury mentioned it looks as if this thing has a lot to overcome before it can really get going. Probably winds of 65 mph or so.

Colin · #8 Postby **Colin** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 2:03 pm

No for me... but only time will tell. If conditions somehow become more favorable, it's possible... but I seriously doubt that it will become anymore than a TS, but if it does manage to become a 'Cane, I think it will be a Minimal Cat 1.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 2:08 pm

Conditions are not unfavorable for tropical development... so this system can easily intensify some more before landfall along the Gulf coast.

Colin · #10 Postby **Colin** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 2:08 pm

Yes Tom, I understand that, but I don't know if it'll have the time to intensify into a Hurricane before it makes landfall!

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 2:44 pm

It will be a close call for sure. Since latest recon is now picking up 42 mph se of the center I have to go with possible just at hurricane strength at landfall even though I voted no. I saw the recon ob after I voted. :roll:

Looks like LA gets this one and unfortunately Perry you are probably rignt about the flooding!!!
:cry:

PTrackerLA · #12 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 3:17 pm

We only had 2 storms last year! Commercials are still running on TV about people getting their roofs fixed and now we have the threat of another storm.

Toni - 574 · #13 Postby **Toni - 574** » Sun Jun 29, 2003 3:29 pm

Most likely a strong TS, not totally out of the question for a min.cat 1, but very unlikely.

You guys stay safe over there, and keep us informed!