Could It Be ?????

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

CARIBBEAN SEA...


THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MDL FORM A SUBTROPICAL/
TROPICAL LOW NR THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY TO MID PD AS A CLOSED
CYCLONE DVLPS AT THE BASE OF A DEPARTING UPR TROUGH. THE UKMET AND
GFS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN... BUT ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM-CORE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATL IS QUITE SUMMERLIKE... CLOSER TO JUNE
THAN JAN. WHILE THE CAN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DVLPG TOO MANY TROP
CYCS...ANALOGS FOR THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD ARE INTRIGUING.
THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH CORRELATION IN THE ANTICIPATED D+8 UPR
PATTERN TO MID JAN 1951...MID-LATE JAN 1989...AND EARLY FEB 1999
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. A TROP CYC HAS BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE
HRCN REANALYSIS PROJECT FOR INCLUSION INTO THE DATABASE WHICH
DVLPD NE OF PUERTO RICO IN EARLY JAN 1951 WHILE A COUPLE FEEBLER
ATTEMPTS AT SUBTROP CYCGNS OCCURRED IN LATE JAN AND FEB THAT YEAR.
MORE RECENTLY IN MID-FEB 1989...THERE WAS A STRONG ATTEMPT AT
SUBTROPICAL CYCGNS NR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE THE SYS SHEARED
OUT AND MOVED SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE ATL
SUBTROPICS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SINCE NOVEMBER...THIS PSBL DVLPMT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. FOR NOW...AM HANDLING THIS WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND A SPOT LOW EARLY IN THE PD...WHICH RETROGRADES INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEK.

ROTH
$$


Source: http://meteora.ucsd.edu/climate/extended.discussion

[wxmann_91]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 57&start=0

[cycloneye]

There is a thread already about the same theme.