Wave in western Caribbean

#1 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 3:15 am

Looks nice:

But shear around 30kt, only slightly decreasing. The system will go inland before it can develop. But it will bring some heavy rain to parts of central America.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 3:17 am

18/84 has a nice shape to it...If it was not for the shear or landfall I would be watching closely.

mike815 · #3 Postby **mike815** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 6:36 am

yeah but its way to close to land

#4 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:40 am

I was wondering when someone here would notice that wave. If it wasn't January, I'd be quite concerned about tropical development. It's certainly not too close to land to develop - all convection is over water. As I look at a current WV loop, shear doesn't seem to be an issue, either. Checking the 06Z GFS 300mb, winds are 15kts or less over the NW Caribbean. SSTs are warm enough. Heck, maybe we SHOULD keep an eye on it! ;-)

Weatherfreak14 · #5 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:52 am

It is very impressive for this time of year.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #6 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:58 am

Looking pretty good this morning....Needs to be watched.

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 7:59 am

just looked at the latest loop of the system and it continues to look more and more impressive.

#8 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:04 am

Here is an update:

with more convection, seems more concentrated. Development of the system can't completly ruled out before reching land tomorrow or wednesday.

boca · #9 Postby **boca** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:18 am

I don't ever remember waves coming across the Caribbean this time of year.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:20 am

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS CUBA AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING WITH THE DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE ARE
GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF A
LINE FROM 19N80W TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 16N89W. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY
CLEAR.

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 8:32 am

LOOKS NICE IN THE VOID THAT EXISTS IN THE ATLANTIC!

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:05 am

It's actually in a pretty low-shear environment right where it is. Being January, of course, the environment to the north is very hostile - 50 knots shear in the Gulf - so even if it beats the odds and develops a circulation, it's not too likely to threaten anybody.

Fun to speculate about, though. :-)

#13 Postby **Ivanhater** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:10 am

interesting for sure, whether or not it develops, still interesting in late january

boca · #14 Postby **boca** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:01 am

I wonder if the moisture from that little wave will get pulled northward due to the cold front all though a weak one moves across Florida on Tuesday.

Jim Hughes · #15 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 10:23 am

I know it's January but certan variables look very favorable from my perspective and these conditons should only get better during the next 48 hours. So I would not look at this activity to lightly. Remember the cyclical nature of Epsilon and Zeta? So this time frame is right on schedule. Things are identical.

OTOH it only has a small favorable area to work with and the MJO angle looks bleak. Even I would be impressed if this thing got to an Invest.

Jim

#16 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 11:30 am

We are having SE winds sustained at 27.4 kts SE ( 130 deg true )! Pressure is down 2 MB for nearest buoy over 24 hours. Visibles are looking quite impressive; even if it was June.

Coast of Belize winds have shifted from due E yesterday to N and NNW for last 8 hours. more wood on the fire.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

WInds are bascially calm along N coast of Honduras

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:25 pm

here we go again...in January also...what is happening to climatology???

#18 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:33 pm

Amazing. Just popped-in the tropical forum to take a "peek" and in January there is an impressive-looking wave out there. This could be another crazy yeah indeed.

Coredesat · #19 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:54 pm

The disturbance is actually in a small pocket of more favorable upper-level winds:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Most of the convection is in an area of 20 kt or less shear. That shear is on the decrease according to the shear tendency maps.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 23, 2006 1:00 pm

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 82W-89W. FARTHER EAST...TYPICAL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING WESTWARD DRIVEN BY MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. GALE FORCE WIND ARE BLOWING NEAR COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 72W-78W. GFS FORECASTS THE TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR EASTERN CUBA. THIS UPPER
HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W

1 PM EST Discussion from TPC.The only mention of the area is about an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms but nothing about any low pressure.Being January and we are talking about an area in the Caribbean is amazing even if nothing occurs in terms of development.

Wave in western Caribbean

Wave in western Caribbean

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