Bill's inland future ...

[Stormsfury]

The system based on radar trends, and satellite imagery has apparently slowed and maybe caught up in the environment across the U.S., the global models are taking the system northeast, some through the Carolinas, and others a little further north into Virginia ... however, with the system appearing to be slowing a bit, a sharper turn towards the ENE could result in a further south track than depicted by the overall global consensus ...

On the 18z runs of the GFS and the ETA ... the GFS retains the structure of Bill quite well and basically floods the Southeastern States, particularly in Northern Al., and GA., along with the Western Carolinas, particularly the Appalachain Mountains due to enhanced lift by upsloping winds ...
The 18z ETA has Bill spreading out and becoming quite extratropical quite rapidly and spreading a frontal trough, which basically focuses the moisture along the Gulf coast in the next 2 days ...Where I've stood with the EURO/ETA solution and those two models were the primary reasoning with my call of Louisiana late last week with the tropical low ... this is where I announce that I part ways with the EURO/ETA ...

The UKMET and the NOGAPS are a little bit aggressive in retaining Bill's structure such as Danny did in 1997, and in reality, this looks eerily similar ... and in fact, if the UKMET/NOGAPS solution verifies, reformation of Bill is quite possible once it exits the Carolina coast ... The EURO is furthest north but ends up dropping "Bill" from east KY (Day 2) back into South Carolina on Day 4, around a flat ridge across the Gulf ... Unfortunately here, since the EURO was run at 12z, and when Bill was still a tropical storm over water and still, at that time, moving quite briskly, I will not be using the EURO's solution at present in regards to Bill ... too many changes have occurred since 12z and is obsolete ...

The 18z ETA's solution seems a little suspect to me as well (since Bill has actually became better organized just before landfall earlier tonight and in fact, looks like a convective bursting as the center passed very near Lake Ponchatrain (sp)) ... anyway, the ETA wants to rapidly decay Bill into a extratropical and baroclinic system too rapidly considering now Bill's overall structure looks very healthy ...

Currently, my current prognostics will go with Bill moving NE, then ENE, fairly slowly with a large area from Central AL, North and Central GA, the Carolinas with the potential for excessive rainfalls, especially where bands or cells train upon themselves... with the track somewhere continuing through Central AL/GA and into Western South Carolina and North Carolina ...

I'm not forgetting about folks in Southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, and Florida, but I know KOW is keeping everyone posted here ...

SF