SW Pacific: TD 13F (Invest 92P)

[Coredesat]

This bulletin's from last night, but a new one should be posted a little later this morning:

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 19/2325 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1003HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 11S 166E AT
192100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS, MTSAT/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS
ABOUT 30C.

13F IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH, WHILE A DEVELOPING
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOIST TROPICAL AIR
INTO THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION IS DISORGANISED AT THIS STAGE AND LIES TO
THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL OVER
13F. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY, AS WELL AS PRESENCE OF A
MID TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO AID THE GROWTH
OF THE DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] HAVE
PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTARDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

FQPS01 NFFN 200600
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180
and EQ to 25S between 180 and 120W
issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Feb 200800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGNIL.


PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 210600 UTC.

WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1003 HPA] NEAR 11S 166E SLOW MOVING.

TROPCAL DISTURBANCE TD2 [1004HPA] NEAR 19S 165W SLOW MOVING.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ1 05S 160E 10S 167E 13S 172E SLOW MOVING. POOR
VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CZ1.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ2 10S 176E 10S 180 11S 170W 14S 160W 17S 150W 25S
144W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 MILES OF CZ2.

CONNVERGENCE ZONE CZ3 10S 150W 09S 140W 07S 130W 05S 120W SLOW
MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 100 MILES OF CZ3.

CONVERGENCE ZONE CZ4 16S 160E 15S 170E SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY
IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CZ4.

TROUGH T1 13S 160E TO 13F TO 13S 170E 14S 180 17S 170W TO TD2 TO 20S
165W 25S 156W SLOW MOVING. POOR VISIBILITY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 MILES OF T1.

A MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 20S IN THE AREA BETWEEN
180 AND 160W.

WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS IN SQUALLS NEAR CONVERGENCE ZONES. ROUGH
SEAS.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 20/2339 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1001HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 14S 169E AT
202100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS, MTSAT/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST
IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 30C.

13F IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH, WHILE AN ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE NORTH IS SPIRALING MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE LLCC IS DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION
PRESENT IS DISPLACED ABOUT TWO DEGREES TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN
AN AREA OF GOOD DIFFLUENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. A 250HPA TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 13F IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 13F AND IT IS
UNLIKELY TO GROW AS A TRULY TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE. GLOBAL
MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE IT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS 13F DIGS INTO A
SLOW MOVING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB!

[Coredesat]

For whatever reason, it's gone from NRL.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 21/0836 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1000HPA] RELOCATED NEAR 14S 170E AT
210600UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/IR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
30C.

13F IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS STONG
OVER THE SYSTEM. A 250HPA TROUGH TO THE WEST OF 13F IS THE MAJOR
INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF 13F AND IT IS UNLIKELY TO GROW AS A
TRULY TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC,
NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE IT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS 13F DIGS INTO A SLOW MOVING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 21/2248 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 15S 169.5E AT
212100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
30C.

13F IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
REMAINS STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER 250HPA TROUGH TO THE WEST OF
13F INFLUENCES ANY DEVELOPMENT AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS STAGE. GLOBAL MODELS
[ECMWF, UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE IT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS 13F DIGS INTO A SLOW MOVING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 22/0935 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16S 169.5E AT
220600UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/IR, AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29C.

13F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEVELOPING MONSOONAL TROUGH IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
250HPA HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM. A MID TO HIGH
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDLATITUDES AND LIES SLOW MOVING IN
THE VICINITY OF 13F. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WARM
CORED AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS A HYBRID SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. AS THE
MONSOONAL TROUGH AND 13F DRIFT SOUTHWARDS A SQUASH ZONE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM SOUTH OF VANUATU AND THE NEW CALEDONIA REGION AND BETWEEN A
SLOW MOVING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WARM
CORED AND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS A HYBRID SYSTEM.

That would explain why this is gone from NRL. The JTWC doesn't number subtropical cyclones, right?

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 22/2304 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 168.9E AT
222100UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/VIS, AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29C.

13F REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A RATHER WEAK MONSOONAL TROUGH IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A MID TO HIGH LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDLATITUDES AND LIES SLOW MOVING WEST OF 13F
SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE HYBRID SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF,
UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH
AND 13F DRIFT SOUTHWARDS, PUSHING INTO A SURFACE RIDGE, THE FORMATION
OF A SQUASH ZONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF VANUATU AND THE NEW
CALEDONIA REGION.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

ropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 23/0915 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 173.4E AT
230600UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/VIS, AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT
29C.

13F APPEARS SHEARED AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOONAL TROUGH. DEEP
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A MID TO HIGH LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDLATITUDES AND LIES SLOW MOVING WEST OF 13F
SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE HYBRID SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF,
UKGC, NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. GALE FORCE WINDS RESULTING FROM THE
SUQASH ZONE REMAINS SOUTH OF 13F, DETACHED FROM CENTRE.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

[senorpepr]

TD Thirteen (13F / 92P) advisories are on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page:

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm

[P.K.]

FQPS01 NFFN 232000
MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA
5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W.
ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Feb 232000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING GALE WARNING 037 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 23/1924
UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Depression 13F [998 HPa] centre was located near 20.2S
175.4E at 231800 UTC. Position poor. Depression moving southeast 10
knots. Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots in area bounded by 25S
170E 22S 170E 21S 174E 21S 176E 20S 177E 20S 179E 25S 180 25S 170E.
Area of gales moving with the system.

This warning cancels and replaces Gale Warning number 036.


PARTS 2 AND 3 : SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST VALID UNTIL Feb 241800 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] NEAR 20.2S 175.4E MOVING SOUTHEAST
10 KNOTS. APART FROM GALE WARNING ABOVE, EXPECTS CLOCKWISE WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE.

[HURAKAN]

24/0133 UTC 21.9S 176.6E T1.5/1.5 93P -- South Pacific Ocean


DON'T KNOW WHY BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM NRL.

[senorpepr]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 24/0245 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 20.8S 175.9E AT
232100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.

13F IS SHEARED 70NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
SOUTHEAST OF 13F. A MID TO HIGH LEVEL TROUGH LIES SLOW MOVING WEST OF
13F. SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL NW
FLOW. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 28C. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC,
NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINS SOUTH OF 13F,
DETACHED FROM CENTRE.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 24/1148 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 22.4S 177.2E AT
240900UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON
MTSAT/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.

13F IS SHEARED 70NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
SOUTHEAST OF 13F. A MID TO HIGH LEVEL TROUGH LIES SLOW MOVING WEST OF
13F. SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL NW
FLOW. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 28C. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC,
NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINS SOUTH OF 13F,
DETACHED FROM CENTRE.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

6pm GMT surface chart: http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/0640.gif

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/1122 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F [998 HPA] LOCATED NEAR 24.9S 177.2E AT
250900UTC MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION.

13F IS SHEARED 70NM OF DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR
SOUTHEAST OF 13F. A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH LIES SLOW MOVING WEST OF
13F. SYSTEM IS BEING SHEARED SOUTHEAST BY A STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL NW
FLOW. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 28C. GLOBAL MODELS [ECMWF, UKGC,
NOGAPS, GFS] MOVE THE DEPRESSION SOUTHEAST. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAINS
SOUTH OF 13F, DETACHED FROM CENTRE.

POTENTIAL FOR 13F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Gone

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Feb 25/2331 UTC 2006 UTC.

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.