This has to mean something! GOM History

[drezee]

Greetings,
I was bored so I thought, "what can I do that has something to do with weather." I poured over buoy history data and found something very interesting. Buoy 42001 is one othe most great meteorological data collectors in history. It is stable...has been in about the same spot for over 30 years...is in the middle of the GOM deep water. I took all the data for April 20th for 30 years and compared it. SST's are in bold.

1976 04 20 15 999 05.7 99.0 00.90 99.00 04.00 999 1013.2 23.2 23.1 999.0 99.0
1977 No Data
1978 04 20 12 029 06.2 99.0 00.70 99.00 03.70 999 1012.6 23.1 22.5 999.0 99.0
1979 04 20 12 154 03.8 99.0 01.00 99.00 04.00 999 1016.9 23.2 22.9 999.0 99.0
1980 04 20 13 030 07.1 09.8 01.00 05.60 04.60 999 1019.2 19.8 23.5 999.0 99.0
1981 04 20 13 999 99.0 99.0 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1018.0 23.9 24.0 999.0 99.0
1982 04 20 13 152 08.4 09.3 01.00 04.80 04.00 999 1014.8 26.7 24.3 999.0 99.0
1983 04 20 13 095 04.4 04.7 01.00 05.90 04.60 999 1010.4 24.2 23.0 999.0 99.0
1984 04 20 12 148 10.6 13.1 01.80 06.70 04.80 999 9999.0 23.3 22.5 999.0 99.0
1985 04 20 13 119 06.5 07.2 00.60 04.80 04.00 999 9999.0 25.3 25.1 999.0 99.0
1986 04 20 13 158 10.8 12.4 01.70 06.30 05.40 999 1012.5 23.5 23.6 999.0 99.0
1987 04 20 13 077 04.3 04.8 00.20 04.80 03.50 999 1017.3 21.9 21.9 999.0 99.0
1988 04 20 13 033 05.4 06.1 00.90 06.70 05.30 999 1014.3 21.2 21.9 999.0 99.0
1989 No Data
1990 04 20 13 114 07.2 08.6 01.50 08.30 05.60 999 1021.6 24.3 23.5 999.0 99.0
1991 04 20 13 340 03.8 04.6 00.70 05.90 04.30 999 1011.6 24.3 25.1 999.0 99.0
1992 No Data
1993 04 20 13 144 05.4 06.1 01.50 06.20 05.20 999 1013.9 22.9 21.9 999.0 99.0
1994 04 20 13 274 01.2 01.8 00.40 05.00 04.40 999 1017.8 20.5 24.2 999.0 99.0
1995 04 21 13 150 08.2 09.7 02.00 06.70 05.60 999 1011.4 24.8 24.5 999.0 99.0
1996 04 21 12 121 10.8 12.9 1.62 5.00 4.27 999 1015.0 23.8 23.8 999.0 99.0
1997 04 20 13 150 4.8 5.8 .28 9.09 4.72 128 1013.6 23.1 24.4 999.0 99.0
1998 No Data
1999 No Data
2000 04 20 13 131 6.7 7.8 0.47 3.85 3.66 93 1016.3 23.9 24.2 18.6 99.0
2001 04 20 13 132 6.5 8.4 1.21 5.26 4.70 94 1022.6 23.0 25.5 14.3 99.0 99.00
2002 04 20 13 109 7.9 9.4 1.16 6.67 4.85 134 1018.0 24.8 25.4 19.6 99.0 99.00
2003 04 20 13 118 5.4 6.4 99.00 99.00 99.00 999 1015.6 24.2 23.2 21.9 99.0 99.00
2004 04 20 13 132 9.0 10.9 1.10 6.25 4.84 100 1019.7 23.4 23.1 13.9 99.0 99.00
2005 04 20 13 00 142 4.2 5.0 1.25 6.67 4.94 113 1016.7 23.8 24.2 19.9 99.0 99.00
2006 04 20 13 50 140 9.0 10.0 1.1 6 MM MM 1014.0 25.9 26.7 23.4 MM +2.4 MM

The water temp has been over 25C only 4 times in the previous 30 years. The 5th being this year. The previous high was 2001 at 25.5. This buoy is at 26.7 (+1.2C) than the previous record! The 30-year average 23.6C (-2006: +3.1C)!

[skysummit]

WOW. You're right, this has to mean something! It's getting too warm too early! I noticed yesteray a buoy in the GOM was at 84 degrees. I'm looking forward to see if that'll be the case again today.

Nevermind...it will be. Here's this mornings 12Z GOM plot. It's at 83 degrees.

[dixiebreeze]

Good job Drezee! I like than kind of info.

[drezee]

The subsequent Aug 9th (or thereabouts):
76 08 09 21 999 02.1 99.0 00.40 99.00 04.00 999 1012.4 29.9 29.8 999.0 99.0
1977 No April Data
78 08 09 21 174 04.2 99.0 00.90 99.00 04.00 999 1017.3 24.9 29.0 999.0 99.0
79 08 16 22 058 06.3 99.0 00.70 99.00 03.70 999 1016.8 29.0 29.6 999.0 99.0
80 08 08 21 140 18.2 21.5 07.30 12.50 08.40 999 1005.2 28.7 28.5 999.0 99.0
81 08 09 21 079 01.0 02.0 00.30 04.50 04.20 999 1017.5 30.9 31.2 999.0 99.0
82 08 09 21 107 03.8 04.1 00.70 04.80 04.10 999 1016.6 30.9 29.8 999.0 99.0
83 08 09 20 143 02.8 03.3 00.10 05.00 03.20 999 1016.3 30.2 31.6 999.0 99.0
84 08 09 21 112 03.8 04.8 00.60 09.10 05.70 999 1016.5 27.0 29.5 999.0 99.0
85 08 09 21 324 02.4 03.2 00.20 04.80 03.80 999 1015.4 29.7 31.2 999.0 99.0
86 08 09 21 118 03.3 04.1 00.40 05.60 04.10 999 1015.8 29.2 30.2 999.0 99.0
87 08 09 21 175 07.2 08.4 01.50 06.20 05.20 999 1014.6 29.9 30.1 999.0 99.0
88 08 09 21 999 99.0 99.0 01.10 05.90 04.30 999 1012.3 28.3 29.4 999.0 99.0
89 No April Data
90 08 09 21 322 03.6 04.5 00.30 04.00 04.70 999 1016.4 29.0 30.0 999.0 99.0
91 08 14 21 206 01.8 02.7 00.40 08.30 04.00 999 1015.7 29.3 30.5 999.0 99.0
92 No April Data
93 08 08 21 058 04.3 05.3 00.50 07.70 04.90 999 1019.0 29.1 30.5 999.0 99.0
94 08 09 21 053 03.0 03.7 00.20 05.30 04.10 999 1017.3 28.8 29.9 999.0 99.0
95 08 09 21 055 03.8 05.0 01.10 06.20 04.50 999 1011.8 25.8 28.7 999.0 99.0
96 08 09 21 14 1.8 2.8 .43 5.56 4.38 999 1017.2 29.8 32.1 999.0 99.0
97 08 09 09 174 4.5 5.4 .40 9.09 4.31 126 1016.2 28.9 30.3 999.0 99.0
1998 No August Data
1999 08 09 21 8 2.2 3.1 .19 5.26 3.56 87 1013.7 29.4 30.6 23.9 99.0
2000 08 09 20 65 7.6 8.9 1.17 6.25 4.87 108 1017.9 29.6 30.0 23.2 99.0 99.00
2001 08 09 21 82 4.6 5.3 0.60 5.88 4.38 125 1019.0 28.8 29.7 22.9 99.0 99.00
2002 08 09 21 15 2.4 3.1 0.86 6.25 5.32 58 1014.4 29.6 32.0 22.0 99.0 99.00
2003 08 09 21 315 2.9 3.8 0.40 4.55 3.47 281 1013.7 29.6 30.7 22.4 99.0 99.00
2004 08 09 21 84 2.4 3.4 0.61 6.25 5.15 43 1015.6 30.3 32.5 24.5 99.0 99.00
2005 08 09 21 00 329 1.9 2.7 0.24 7.14 4.18 127 1015.6 29.9 31.1 23.4 99.0 99.00

The average temp for Aug 9th or thereabouts was 30.3C. So for the last 30 years, the temperature rose on average 6.7C over the period of time from April 20th to ~August 9th. If you use that average for this year, you can see that the temp would average 33.4C or 92F. That would be absolute madness...

[GeneratorPower]

The depth is at 1 meter below the sea surface.

[drezee]

[x-y-no]

Very good catch, drezee.

That's a pretty compelling statistic there. If you feel like doing this maybe once a month or so as the season goes on, that would be really worthwhile information, IMHO.

[SouthFloridawx]

wow that's some really good use of microsoft excel...

I didnt' even think to chart that.

Good job on your research.

[southerngale]

Very good catch, drezee.

That's a pretty compelling statistic there. If you feel like doing this maybe once a month or so as the season goes on, that would be really worthwhile information, IMHO.

Ditto. Nice job, drezee.

[SouthFloridawx]

any chance we could get you to do that on other buoys? Perhaps like 2 in the gom and 2 in the carib?

[drezee]

I will see what I can do

[canetracker]

That is a great job!
It is also interesting to note that on April 20, 2001, 2002 and 2006 were the warmest temperatures in the 30 years of data. I hope it does not keep up this warming trend.

[southerngale]

Watch out drezee....South will work you to death!

[Jim Cantore]

Watch out drezee....South will work you to death!

[SouthFloridawx]

Watch out drezee....South will work you to death!

Ha ha ha sg! It's true though LOL

[decgirl66]

Very interesting statistics indeed!

[benny]

Greetings,
I was bored so I thought, "what can I do that has something to do with weather." I poured over buoy history data and found something very interesting. Buoy 42001 is one othe most great meteorological data collectors in history. It is stable...has been in about the same spot for over 30 years...is in the middle of the GOM deep water. I took all the data for April 20th for 30 years and compared it. SST's are in bold.
cut

The water temp has been over 25C only 4 times in the previous 30 years. The 5th being this year. The previous high was 2001 at 25.5. This buoy is at 26.7 (+1.2C) than the previous record! The 30-year average 23.6C (-2006: +3.1C)!

What is the correlation between the Apr 9 and the Aug 9 SSTs? Is there persistance? Very interesting to say the least.. 3C warmer than the average is pretty much up there. some years were pretty good on the high side... eg 1985.. of course 1991 was that warm as well.. now i'd be interested to see a super warm gulf.. but the probability that all the cold fronts are done seems small.. but if so...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

drezee, can you go back and do an xy-scatter plot of that data with April SSTs as the x value and August SSTs as the y-value. After doing that, right click on one of the points, click on "Add Trendline" make sure type is linear, and on the Options tab, click "Display equation" and "Display R-squared value on chart"

Thanks

[GeneratorPower]

Each day can vary somewhat, so I have an idea. What I mean is that April 20 might be a bit different than April 21 and 19. If you wanted to reduce the "spread" and give better results, take the AVERAGE of, say, a five-day time period. Then plot those averages versus other years. I say this because individual days are subject to oddities whereas a five-day average is much less so.

That's just a suggestion for improvement. But the trend line clearly shows a meaningful, well, trend.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The trend line on the above chart shows absolutely nothing but an average