Tropical cyclone forecast for 2006...
3-15-2006
The Eastern Atlantic has cooled off greatly. WIth -3 or so degrees below normal. The rest of the central into the western Atlantic is normal to slightly below normal...0 to -.5...The only place that is above normal is the gulf of Mexico with a strong loop current.
A cooler eastern Atlantic/western Atlantic/Caribbean will mean higher pressures in the tropics. So less tropical cyclone development will occur. Even with a la nina in the Eastern Pacific=Less wind shear over the tropical Atlantic expect a cape verdes only slightly more active then last year. More in line with 2000 with out strong shear.
The Azores high should be weaker then normal from June through October with higher pressures in the tropics=lower pressures in the subtropics. With a avg to slightly stronger then avg Bermuda high. So troughs should rule the eastern Atlantic making more recurvers.
The cooler then normal sst's might keep some waves from developing...Which once they get into the gulf of Mexico need to be watched...But will there be Katrina/Rita most likely not...
I expect 3 tropical cyclones to devlelop into tropical storms east of 40 west...
There will be about 2 or 3 extratropical systems going subtroipcal or tropical.
Also to note after the 1933 season some of the quitest season on record happen. So it could easly be less active then forecasted.
Also the Eastern Pacific should be about normal or slight above normal. Even so theres a La nina...
Forecasted numbers
13 named storms
5 hurricane
2 Major hurricanes
Forecaster Matthew
Most likely a better forecast then your finger in the air type?
Yes the Atlantic has warmed...But I don't expect a season much more active then a 2003,2004 like.
