GFS..Early season storm?

[Vortex]

Looks like the trough along the east coast will dig with a frontal boundary setting up along the east coast the next few weeks. Gfs(6z) takes a peice of this energy on the southern end over the western carribean and have a look...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Never take anything into account 16 days in advance. It's too uncertain.

[jimvb]

This still says the potential for such a storm will be there. The seas are warm enough for it. There could be a storm 16 days out as the model says, or it could be 14 days, or 18 or 20 or 10 days from now, or it could hit the Gulf Coast, or it could hit Cuba or go fish, or it could vanish in future runs and possibly other storms take its place. But the fact that GFS would indicate a storm says that in two weeks the tropics will be ready.

[Evil Jeremy]

2 weeks ago, the GFS saw a front in the west coast and it said that it would devolop in the gulf in 10 days. never happened, so dont count on this happening.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This still needs to be watched for a trend...It will put us right at the begining of the season..

[Evil Jeremy]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 11N E OF
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. DRY UPPER AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTRED TSTMS ARE AFFECTING THE
EASTERN SECTOR OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING
ALSO THE MONA PASSAGE. REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL BRINGING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR
SO. THIS COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED CLOSE TO LAKE
MARACAIBO AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA.

[weatherwindow]

FWIW...the gfs does spin up some spurious vort maxs, that said...the scenario has some climatological weight....stalled/decaying fronts are common precursors to early/late season development in the western caribbean...lets not dismiss it out of hand, stranger things have happened ........rich

[jlauderdal]

FWIW...the gfs does spin up some spurious vort maxs, that said...the scenario has some climatological weight....stalled/decaying fronts are common precursors to early/late season development in the western caribbean...lets not dismiss it out of hand, stranger things have happened ........rich

My fellow fort lauderdale resident vortex had way too much exhaust from the airshow last weekend here, gfs verifying in this case is extremely unlikely and thus i am dismissing it now.

[no advance]

Come on juderal you are usually bullish on potential develpment. Vortex good find.

[jlauderdal]

Come on juderal you are usually bullish on potential develpment. Vortex good find.

bullish would be cristy and dixie. i would consider myself extremely bearish based on the gfs predicting anything beyond 5 days.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Is always possible, but to far out (at least right now) to guess.

[no advance]

I am bullish on this develping. It has been so dry and hot this yr so far. Seems feasible. Also climatology possible. There is so much smoke in the air right now this area sure could use a good dumping See you

[CHRISTY]

I think its possible if conditions are right for it....but no doupt there's alot of extra fuel this year then previous years in the gulf of mexico with those warm SST'S.Well see what happens!

[nbean]

I think its possible if conditions are right for it....but no doupt there's alot of extra fuel this year then previous years in the gulf of mexico with those warm SST'S.Well see what happens!

quite possible, but highly unlikely.

[jlauderdal]

I think its possible if conditions are right for it....but no doupt there's alot of extra fuel this year then previous years in the gulf of mexico with those warm SST'S.Well see what happens!

quite possible, but highly unlikely.

imagine if nhc rolled out a discussion where they said quite possible but highly unlikely...

[WeatherEmperor]

I think its possible if conditions are right for it....but no doupt there's alot of extra fuel this year then previous years in the gulf of mexico with those warm SST'S.Well see what happens!

quite possible, but highly unlikely.

imagine if nhc rolled out a discussion where they said quite possible but highly unlikely...

I think a better way to say that would be: "it is possible, but not probable."

<RICKY>

[jlauderdal]

I think its possible if conditions are right for it....but no doupt there's alot of extra fuel this year then previous years in the gulf of mexico with those warm SST'S.Well see what happens!

quite possible, but highly unlikely.

imagine if nhc rolled out a discussion where they said quite possible but highly unlikely...

I think a better way to say that would be: "it is possible, but not probable."

<RICKY>

hows the smoke in miramr, i am just down the road in miami lakes and its hazy but not as bad as yesterday. watched out for the alligators, that jogger was eaten alive in sunrise by a gator. damn thing attacked her when she was on the bank.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have been watching the GFS for the last 5 runs and it has been developing this type of scenario towards the end of the run but, should we really put any stock into this being so far out?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... sc&start=0

I haven't been bullish enough to start a new thread about it but, lets continue to see what gfs does with this. But, this is 300+ Hours out.

[Ivan14]

That is interesting that the GFS keeps developing some kinda tropical system. Maybe it is picking up that we will have a late May storm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

They really need to calm it down. For the past few weeks the GFS keeps on showing development from a system.