New Vortex

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

New Vortex

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:37 am

has 85KT FL winds in northern semi-circle; however, pressure has risen to 1004mb. Thus, this likely will not be upgraded to a hurricane at 5 a.m. and these winds may be somewhat transient as the system begins to feel the effects of the shear
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:
Contact Colin

#2 Postby Colin » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:16 am

Thanks for the update, Derek...but I think it'll be upgraded to a Hurricane sometime today. ;)
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#3 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:42 am

I believe I can speak with great confidence that there is no way that will happen today. No way, no how. It will remain a TS as long as the LLC remains...but no hurricane today...and probably not tomorrow if it doesn't slow down to less than 15 kts.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:41 pm

Future vortex messages did prove the transitory nature of those winds. Similar events have occurred in previous tropical cyclones (Barry, 1995, Debby 2000, Chantal 2001 are good examples). Usually, with the very high pressures (>1000mb), if there are 80+ 850mb winds, these are local, transient events and will quickly weaken back to more reasonable values, as happened with this one
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:46 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I believe I can speak with great confidence that there is no way that will happen today. No way, no how. It will remain a TS as long as the LLC remains...but no hurricane today...and probably not tomorrow if it doesn't slow down to less than 15 kts.
With all due respect..nothing so far this season has followed the parameters of tropical cyclone genesis and tracking for that matter..so It is a guessing game..even for those with superior knowledge and understanding. Take a step back and look..guidelines are being rewritten this season and you don't have to be a "pro" to see that :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], pepecool20, USTropics and 41 guests