Don't like the new MM5 one darn bit!

[Scott_inVA]

Builds SubTropical Ridge back over the SE CONUS. Though 72 hours the TC does not recurve and continues north (LA/MS).

At this time, I do NOT believe this verifies but early out the MM5 sometimes "sees" things. Think the front will interact with the TC and steer to the NE...right now my guess would be Big Bend to Tampa. Don't want anyone along north central Gulf Coast to disregard development.

We'll see tomorrow morning what the MM5 has to offer.

Scott

[johngaltfla]

Scott, just curious, what do you think of the VIPIR models? Our local station just posted it on the air and it shows a TS hitting the Big Bend area of Florida.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott, just curious, what do you think of the VIPIR models? Our local station just posted it on the air and it shows a TS hitting the Big Bend area of Florida.

Local TV uses it and from what limited knowledge I have it uses BAMS and COAMPS. Of course, I'm on record Tampa to Big Bend, so if that's the deal and VIPIR indicates that, it's a good product

Seriously, maybe someone else knows more about how/what data is ingested.

Scott

[Stratosphere747]

One of the NO mets is a "viper" fan...

Maybe one of the La folks can give some insight.

[linkerweather]

Scott, just curious, what do you think of the VIPIR models? Our local station just posted it on the air and it shows a TS hitting the Big Bend area of Florida.

Local TV uses it and from what limited knowledge I have it uses BAMS and COAMPS. Of course, I'm on record Tampa to Big Bend, so if that's the deal and VIPIR indicates that, it's a good product

Seriously, maybe someone else knows more about how/what data is ingested.

Scott

VIPIR is a product from Baron's Services located in Huntsville. The model that you would see displayed on VIPIR is baron's services own model and that coincidentially is acronymed as BAMS. Here is a link about their model.

http://www.baronservices.com/solutions/ ... recast.php

By they way, the model we have shown with our VIPIR has been consistent since Thursday morning with a landfall of a fairly potent TS or weak cane mainly early Tuesday morning around Cedar Key.

[HollynLA]

Bob Breck in NOLA used the Vyper on Katrina last year and it gave him an east coast US hit and it showed Dennis coming to Terrebone parish, LA, so no, I don't have any faith in it.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

Bob Breck and Vyper had Katrina east coasting it three days before Gulf landfall, when most of the othe other models had similar tracks. It was that southwest jog in the Gulf that threw all the models off. Breck was the first NOLA meteorologist to predict a landfall at Buras.

He also nailed Rita with that model.

[HollynLA]

From what I was told about the vyper syster from a met that worked at a station with one, was that it works well for short term, 24 hours out, anything further than that, it very inaccurate.

[Sean in New Orleans]

VIPIR is a college model in the works that has had some success and everybody is jumping on those successes. Until it is truly scientifically proven, I find the model to live in computer weather "la-la land." I like mets that follow cloud patterns. This is where the truth lies. Models are computer generated and completely infused with intelligence by "man," pressing computer buttons.

[Nimbus]

I gather that the biggest problem with the MM5 scenario is that as the high builds back in the shear would be less and Alberto would gain greater intensity before making landfall.

Most of the other models seem to show a west coast rain event for Florida with the shear pulling moisture off to the east and inhibiting development.

[Scott_inVA]

As always, "good" models sometimes hock loogies..."bad" models sometimes hit a Home Run. I take every opportunity to remind folks to look at the models while learning as much as you can about downstream weather.

I run models every single day...still don't have one I trust 100%.

Scott

[Scott_inVA]

I gather that the biggest problem with the MM5 scenario is that as the high builds back in the shear would be less and Alberto would gain greater intensity before making landfall.

Most of the other models seem to show a west coast rain event for Florida with the shear pulling moisture off to the east and inhibiting development.

Yes that's the idea with the previous 2 MM5 runs. Ridging over SEUS pumps heights. I am not sold on this but honestly haven't looked back at the MM5 over the past 72 hrs to see if it is in la-la land.

Scott

[Audrey2Katrina]

Bob Breck and Vyper had Katrina east coasting it three days before Gulf landfall, when most of the othe other models had similar tracks. It was that southwest jog in the Gulf that threw all the models off. Breck was the first NOLA meteorologist to predict a landfall at Buras.

He also nailed Rita with that model.

One thing I distinctly remember about Bob and the tracking of a LOT of the storms once they get into the Gulf--particularly if it's across S. Fla., or through the Fla. Straits... he says the models almost always have it recurving too far to the EAST, (as in Fla. Bend, or Panhandle)... and almost never far enough WEST; I remember him giving us this caution when Katrina first entered the Gulf, and, yes, you're right, he positively said he had a VERY bad feeling about Katrina heading to SE Louisiana, and well ahead of the official projections.

Face it... there are so many variables that these things can be affected by, there is simply no way to tell exactly where these things are going to wind up much more than 3 days out, certainly not beyond 5...JMHO.

Carl Arodando, a local met was on the radio tonight, and said that it would be a "Central Gulf" event, by late in the week, and that "some" models have it pulling to the NE, but that a hit into La/Miss was a distinct possibility--sent chills up and down my spine as I was passing all those trailers

A2K

[TS Zack]

I hate VIPIR.....

Bob did blow Katrina way out the window. VIPIR is not a good model for the tropics, it is something like the NAM/MM5. I work for Bob Breck and I always tell him not to go by the VIPIR but sometimes its right others it isnt. Bob likes to bring the positives out the weather instead of the negatives.

Carl did say that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Bob Breck and Vyper had Katrina east coasting it three days before Gulf landfall, when most of the othe other models had similar tracks. It was that southwest jog in the Gulf that threw all the models off. Breck was the first NOLA meteorologist to predict a landfall at Buras.

He also nailed Rita with that model.

One thing I distinctly remember about Bob and the tracking of a LOT of the storms once they get into the Gulf--particularly if it's across S. Fla., or through the Fla. Straits... he says the models almost always have it recurving too far to the EAST, (as in Fla. Bend, or Panhandle)... and almost never far enough WEST; I remember him giving us this caution when Katrina first entered the Gulf, and, yes, you're right, he positively said he had a VERY bad feeling about Katrina heading to SE Louisiana, and well ahead of the official projections.

Face it... there are so many variables that these things can be affected by, there is simply no way to tell exactly where these things are going to wind up much more than 3 days out, certainly not beyond 5...JMHO.

Carl Arodando, a local met was on the radio tonight, and said that it would be a "Central Gulf" event, by late in the week, and that "some" models have it pulling to the NE, but that a hit into La/Miss was a distinct possibility--sent chills up and down my spine as I was passing all those trailers

A2K

At this point, I would not rule out anywhere along the Gulf coast. Until this thing forms and the exact steering parameters are known; anything is possible. Storms like to surprise us.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

Is that the Zach who used to post on the nola.com forums?

[Audrey2Katrina]

At this point, I would not rule out anywhere along the Gulf coast. Until this thing forms and the exact steering parameters are known; anything is possible. Storms like to surprise us.

Neither would I (rule anything out)... I do recall an earlier model having it track straight N, into the La. coast...it has since changed... and I hope it stays that way.

A2K

[skysummit]

A2K...you must be thinking of the NAM. It had it going into SELA, but now has shifted further west. The MM5 has it getting to the north central gulf, but looks like it stalls. I wouldn't pay too much attention to those two models, but they are fun to look at.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

40 miles south of New Orleans is Barataria Bay. Houma is southwest of New Orleans and is less vunerable than the city.

[skysummit]

40 miles south of New Orleans is Barataria Bay. Houma is southwest of New Orleans and is less vunerable than the city.

LOL...believe me, Houma can easily get under 15 feet of water. For Katrina, locals were warning of 10' in downtown Houma. Less vulnerable??? Please...we are your "barrier island". Thousands of homes just south of Houma went underwater for RITA. Ever flew over Houma? You can see the gulf clearly...it isn't that for away. Studies show a Cat 5 hitting Terrebonne Bay would send the storm surge all the way to Thibodaux. That's the gulf storm surge, not counting the bayous and canals that would be overtopped.