Relocation of center very possible...

[Vortex]

Hi-Res IR indicates that the LLC has become better defined. Surface and satelite images indicate that the surface circulation has reforemed near 20.1 and 85.2 with a movement towards the n/nne near 9 mph. Latest imagery also indicates deeper convection forming about 35 NM north of the center. This system is gradually becoming better organized.

[boca]

Vortex please show link.

[beachbum_al]

I was going to say that too boca. I want link. Now I will go back to thinking about how i am going to drink tons of coffee to stay up tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hi-Res IR indicates that the LLC has become better defined. Surface and satelite images indicate that the surface circulation has reforemed near 20.1 and 85.2 with a movement towards the n/nne near 9 mph. Latest imagery also indicates deeper convection forming about 35 NM north of the center. This system is gradually becoming better organized.

i noticed that too

[rockyman]

Not infrared again...didn't we go through this last night?

[BigA]

I was going to say that too boca. I want link. Now I will go back to thinking about how i am going to drink tons of coffee to stay up tonight.

I actually like going to bed, because I get excited: Its the only time that almost "instantly", the system can change dramatically.

If the center is reforming at that point, it may be that this system may be getting ready to become a TS, but with its disorganization at this point, i can hardly say.

[cycloneye]

If you are going to create a new thread,you have to have something solid to support what you are saying such as links,data etc.

[Opal storm]

How can it be moving nne already?The trof is not here yet.

[rockyman]

Hey, Luis! Personally, I'd prefer that all infrared speculation regarding "center relocation" be in this thread...last night was a nightmare with everyone "seeing" centers on infrared, which we all know (or should know) is a terrible way to spot an LLC.

Not to mention that all of the "centers" were proven to be way too far east and, by morning, so many people had been brainwashed into believing the Cayman Island MLC trumpeters that it came as a "big shock" that the center was actually waaaay west of where it was "supposed" to be

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[boca]

Vortex you can't do this to people leave us hanging please show your findings.

[Vortex]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

It's very evident now on imagery that a new center has likely formed. Run the animation. It's due south of western most cuba.

[Nimbus]

Triangulate the surface winds to find the LLC.

Cozumel Airport
http://tinyurl.com/rt96n

Cozumel Mil civ
http://tinyurl.com/lmjxx

Yucatan channel east of Cozumel
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[cheezyWXguy]

hahahahahahah i posted 4 times! my computer froze up

[Air Force Met]

Hi-Res IR indicates that the LLC has become better defined. Surface and satelite images indicate that the surface circulation has reforemed near 20.1 and 85.2 with a movement towards the n/nne near 9 mph. Latest imagery also indicates deeper convection forming about 35 NM north of the center. This system is gradually becoming better organized.

I don't don't think that is it. First...that is a mid-level vort max. The sfc obs from there are from 85.1 west and have a wind of 20 knots...gusting to 29 knots...given the broad center...those winds are WAY too high to have a center at the sfc anywhere near there. You would only get winds like that close to the center in a very tight storm...which this is not. What you are seeing is at the mid-levels...and maybe even above there.

[cheezyWXguy]

thats weird because convection is wrapping around it and bands ar forming around it

[rockyman]

I dug this up from my old 12 step book:

Repeat after me...I (I) now know (now know) that it is bad science (that it is bad science) to proclaim a low level center (to proclaim a low level center) based only on infrared satellite (based only on infrared satellite).

My name is rockyman and I am a quasi-scientist (Hi! Rockyman!)

[rockyman]

By the way, this is the same MLC that I tracked on visible satellite imagery before dark, and on visible it was obviously NOT an LLC. It's moving NNE because it's circulating around the true center to its north.

[boca]

Rockyman what do you use at night for sat on ill defined centers.

[Air Force Met]

thats weird because convection is wrapping around it and bands ar forming around it

Convection has been wrapping and banding around the MLC over Cuba all day...but that wasn't where the LLC was...

Convection and wrap and band around a MLC. Look at the SWIR...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

You can still see much turning over the channel.