Will Alberto regenerate?

[CrazyC83]

Since the waters of the Gulf Stream are moderately warm (although 23-26C is certainly not tropical), I think there is a chance that should the now-extratropical cyclone move back over those waters, it could regain some tropical characteristics and once again become a tropical or subtropical storm. Anyone else see that happening?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Sorry, its already making the extratropical transition. It would take a miracle for Alberto to regenerate.

[NBCintern]

Sorry, its already making the extratropical transition. It would take a miracle for Alberto to regenerate.

Dunno about that. Ivan in 2004 spat off a piece of its aggression, which in turn spun back towards Florida and into Lousiana/Texas border, so anything can happen..Of course that occurred later in the season..

sorry yes, 2004..

[StormScanWx]

Sorry, its already making the extratropical transition. It would take a miracle for Alberto to regenerate.

Dunno about that. Ivan in 2003 sapt off a piece of its aggression, which in turn spun back towards Florida and into Lousiana/Texas border, so anything can happen..Of course that occurred later in the season..

You mean Ivan in 2004?

[WindRunner]

No, it won't. It's only going to be spending about 12 hours over the northern edge of the warm part of the Gulf Stream . . . no where near enough time or heat to make it tropical again.


Gulf Stream region SSTs:
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gs/averages/06jun/gs_06jun14_0338_mult.png

[Audrey2Katrina]

Doubt it seriously, for all the above cited reasons

A2K

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Alberto will not regenerate at least not tropically, however his circulation may merge with a Short wave, becoming a slow moving powerful gale center in the North Atlantic, at least that is what some of the models like the Gem (Canadian) are starting to hint at.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sorry, its already making the extratropical transition. It would take a miracle for Alberto to regenerate.

Dunno about that. Ivan in 2004 spat off a piece of its aggression, which in turn spun back towards Florida and into Lousiana/Texas border, so anything can happen..Of course that occurred later in the season..

sorry yes, 2004..

Also, I think Ivan had become a TD before hitting FL the second time. I was stuck in the remnants on a cruise and we had 30-45mph winds, 12+ foot seas, etc. Didn't seem like just a "remnant low" to me. Also, when we arrived back in Port Canaveral it looked very much like a TD or weak TS was hitting. Very windy, very choppy seas. IMO, Ivan was an organized system again right after reemerging into the Atlantic.

[george_r_1961]

Not likely...if not impossible. SST's are too cool and the upper winds will not be favorable.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Not likely...if not impossible. SST's are too cool and the upper winds will not be favorable.

Actually the NHC expect a strong TS winds from Extratropical Storm Alberto once it gets back over the open waters.

[tropicana]

POST-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 JUNE 2006.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... THE INTENSE STORM THAT FORMED FROM ALBERTO BATTERS NOVA SCOTIA...

AT 3.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 42.6 N AND LONGITUDE 63.9 W... ABOUT 140 MILES
OR 220 KM SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65MPH ...55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. ALBERTO IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 29MPH...25 KNOTS... 46 KM/H.

HEAVY RAIN AND STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE BUFFETING PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 10 MM PER HOUR WERE REPORTED
OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING WHILE WINDS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WERE GUSTING TO MORE THAN 60MPH 100 KM/H.

THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.



THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS FOR MANY MARITIME AND NEWFOUNDLAND MARINE AREAS AND WILL
BE EXTENDING THE STORM WARNINGS TO AREAS SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE ATLANTIC STORM
PREDICTION CENTRE.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOR CONTINUITY WE ARE CONTINUING TO REFER TO THIS STORM AS POST-
TROPICAL ALBERTO HOWEVER IT HAS NO TROPICAL CHARTACTERISTICS LEFT
WHEN LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IT IS SIMPLY A MATURE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FACT THAT IT IS THIS DEEP IN JUNE IS
QUITE RARE AND LIKELY OWES ITS STRENGTH... IN PART... TO THE RIPE
INGREDIENTS THAT IT INGESTED FROM ALBERTO OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM CONTINUES DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
AROUND 970MB AT FORECAST TIME. THE GEM INITIALIZED TOO HIGH...
AS DID OTHER MODELS... HOWEVER ALL MODELS RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTENSE
LOW IS IN MARITIME WATERS.

DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS
BEEN EVIDENT FOR MANY HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE LOW. LIGHTNING
CONTINUES BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE LOW CENTRE OVER THE MARINE
DISTRICT.

THE GEM REGIONAL APPEARS REASONABLE REGARDING THE TRACK AND PRESSURE
TENDENCY FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE... APART FROM INITIALIZING TOO HIGH.
BETWEEN A GOOD SATELLITE AND MARINE DATA FIX ON THE LOW CENTRE AT
15Z AND THE GEM PROG WE ARE CONTENT TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR TRACK TO
WHAT WE ISSUED EARLIER.

NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 17Z INCLUDE 41 MM AT LUNENBURG AND
WESTERN HEAD.. AND 38 MM AT YARMOUTH. THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS
REPORTED HAVE BEEN PEAK WINDS OF 119 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT...
MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE. WE EXPECT THAT 40-60 MM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL HAVE OCCURRED BY THE TIME THAT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE BOOKS.

STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE GEORGES BANK BUOY WERE REPORTED WELL BEHIND
THE STORM SO IT CONTINUES DEEPENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO REACHED 7 M
AT THAT LOCATION BEFORE THEY STARTED DROPPING. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE STORM IS BEING EXACCERBATED BY STRONG ISALLOBARICS SO
STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS.


-justin-

[tropicana]

POST-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
THURSDAY 15 JUNE 2006.


... INTENSE STORM PASSING NEAR SABLE ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...

AT 9.00 PM ADT... POST-TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.0 N AND LONGITUDE 60.7 W... ABOUT 35 MILES
OR 55 KM WEST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 65MPH... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 970
MB. ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29MPH... 48 KM/H.


NUMEROUS NOVA SCOTIA LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED ABOUT 50 MM OF RAIN (2 inches)
UP TO FORECAST TIME AND WERE STILL RAINING. IT IS LIKELY THAT TOTAL
ACCUMMULATIONS IN SOME PLACES COULD BE 60-70 MM. STORM FORCE WIND
GUSTS BLEW ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES OF 119 KM/H (74MPH) BEING REPORTED FROM BACCARO POINT.

NUMEROUS PUBLIC REPORTS FROM THE HALIFAX REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY
INDICATE MANY TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES DOWN AND EVEN A FEW
TREES. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO TREES BEING IN FULL LEAF AND THE GROUND
BEING WET.

THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE IS MAINTAINING WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WIND WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN... THIS STORM IS AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT GOT JUICED BY THE TROPICAL INGREDIENTS
FROM ALBERTO LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR CONTINUITY IN COMMUNICATION WE
ARE CALLING IT POST-TROPICAL ALBERTO. IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT SOME
CYCLOGENESIS WOULD HAVE OCCURRED ANYWAY HOWEVER THE INTENSITY AND
DEPTH HAVE CLEARLY BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.

PT ALBERTO MAINTAINED INTENSITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE AROUND 970 MB AND STORM FORCE WINDS REPORTED FROM ALL
QUADRANTS.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUED WRAPPING AROUND THE STORM AS IT WOUND UP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SABLE ISLAND COMING UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHILE
EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY GALES. NEARING SUNDOWN THE VISUAL IMAGERY
SHOWED ONE OF THE BEST LOOKING COMMA STRUCTURES LIKELY TO BE SEEN
IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.

MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A LOT OF CONSISTENCY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE OUR PREVIOUS TRACK. NONE OF
THE MODELS INITAILIZED THE STORM DEEP ENOUGH SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED
THE BASIC TRENDS FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE BUT CALIBRATED TO THE REAL
INTENSITY OF THE STORM.


-justin-

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[JonathanBelles]

[george_r_1961]

Yet another surprise. I have to admit I busted Albertos forecast from birth till transition to cold core. Expected at the worst a moderate gale center, NOT an extratropical monster. Nor did I expect the rain we were treated to here yesterday. Goes to show you that Mother Nature does as she pleases.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Even though things are calm in my own area, I'm still covering Alberto on my Weather Blog:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

Check out the surface charts, showing a 32 mb drop in 24 hr for the new combined gale center

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

BTW The storm next target is Newfoundland Island. It should score a direct hit there, but should also be weakening by then. Stay tuned.

[CrazyC83]

Is that an EYE I see in it?

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have a map of the track up to now?