95E Invest at EPAC

[cycloneye]

Doesn't look like a big candidate for being Bud but you never know.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[The Hurricaner]

Link not working.

[Coredesat]

If there was something here earlier, it's gone now:

[CrazyC83]

Bud, you'll have to wait. This blob isn't going nowhere. Chance of development IMO: 2%.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152258
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[HurricaneHunter914]

Earlier it had some sort of banding features with it but now its just a mess.

[P.K.]

ABPZ20 KNHC 160339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201000
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OR
SOO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART



After being almost dead,this disturbance is much more alive right now and may be the third tropical depression of the EPAC season.



95E invest

[mtm4319]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201000
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL APPEAR SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY OR
SOO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART



After being almost dead,this disturbance is much more alive right now and may be the third tropical depression of the EPAC season.



95E invest

It's running out of room to develop though.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/epacpot.png

At 15°N, SSTs fall below the 26.5° threshold west of about 117.5°W. This disturbance is at 14/115 and moving westward. If this were closer to 12°N, then it might have a shot at some decent development.

EDIT: NRL puts it at 11.4°N and 113°W... kinda hard to judge the center based on the IR images, I guess. So maybe it has a shot... but it'd need to stay going west or just north of west. Heat content is still fairly low all around though.

[HURAKAN]

TD 3-E???

[HURAKAN]

TWD:

LOW PRES 1010 MB 11N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND AS THE LOW
MOVES WWD CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

[Yarrah]

Any idea why NRL doesn't mention it?

[cycloneye]

Any idea why NRL doesn't mention it?

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The backup site of NRL has it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

HOLY CRAP! This Invest looks good!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[CHRISTY]

925 MB VOR





LOOP(24-frame)


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_TROPEPAC/animir.html

SST OVERLAY...

[stpeteweathergal]

Not sure if this storm just caused this breaking news.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13438622/

[Stephanie]

This storm looks too far away to cause waves to affect Central America.

[AnnularCane]

This storm looks too far away to cause waves to affect Central America.

I think the storm that actually caused those waves is even further away, in the South Pacific. Not sure exactly where it is.

That invest is beautiful!

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 201623
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



[RattleMan]

Any idea why NRL doesn't mention it?

This invest has died twice (went on NRL, went off, went on, went off, and now is back on again). Is this the craziest invest or what?