Maximum Alberto Intensity

[StormScanWx]

Was it possible that Alberto was a hurricane at peak intensity? I guess the better form of that question would be 'Will the NHC upgrade Tropical Storm Alberto to a hurricane in post-storm analysis?'

I'm very interested to hear what the everyone thinks, but I'd like to hear the professional meteorologists opinion, too.

Thanks,

StormScanWx

[arcticfire]

I doubt it , there was only one night where it had any realy strength and they flew all over it during it's strengthening. I don't think it ever made it beyond strong TS.

[CrazyC83]

Same here. There is no evidence of hurricane force winds. Cindy was making landfall at the time of peak intensity last year (so it had radar data to prove it), and Emily had clear evidence of Category 5 strength to back it up.

My estimate of actual peak intensity: 70 mph, 993 mb (a slight drop to take in account some variable estimates).

[Audrey2Katrina]

Went through Cindy and was convinced it was always only a TS... so I guess anything's possible; but I doubt seriously that Alberto made it.

A2K

[CrazyC83]

Went through Cindy and was convinced it was always only a TS... so I guess anything's possible; but I doubt seriously that Alberto made it.

A2K

That's because only a few square miles of Plaquemines saw hurricane-force winds.

[Audrey2Katrina]

That's because only a few square miles of Plaquemines saw hurricane-force winds.

I'm well aware of what areas might have received the "hurricane" winds, and didn't imply I did... but only that all along I was convinced it was only a TS. Actually, I slept through the whole thing.

A2K

[Stratusxpeye]

I do not belive alberto ever made huricane status. He was merely a TS. A good burst of convection that morning and he was done. Thats all

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would say that it was likely a 70mph storm at peak intensity and only a 40-45mph storm at landfall.

[Cyclenall]

I was thinking this. I'm just going to say I don't know. No comment or opinion.

[CHRISTY]

Here are a couple of VISIBLE images of TS ALBERTO....









Here's a link to ALBERTO'S WIND ANALYSES...


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/alberto2006/wind.html

[gatorcane]

nope I would be floored if they did, most of the stronger winds were not even at the surface and it was poorly organized from the beginning.

[wxman57]

I seriously doubt Alberto had any 70 mph sustained wind. Recon was flying without SFMR (per Derek). With a core as tilted as Alberto's due to shear, it was very difficult to drop dropsondes in the max wind area. Recon was using a 0.9 FL to surface conversion, which was likely way too high given the dry air entrainment and hybrid low status. Plenty of buoys and ships in its path, and the maximum I saw reported from a buoy was 40 kts. One ship reported a 50 kt wind, but that ship was reporting consistently a good 10 kts higher than other observations around it. They may not have been adjusting for ship movement properly.

Bottom line, there's no data to support hurricane strength. With Cindy, there were actually a few (or one) surface report of 74 mph wind plus other measurements that indicated 74 mph at the surface. Not so with Alberto.

[gatorcane]

I seriously doubt Alberto had any 70 mph sustained wind. Recon was flying without SFMR (per Derek). With a core as tilted as Alberto's due to shear, it was very difficult to drop dropsondes in the max wind area. Recon was using a 0.9 FL to surface conversion, which was likely way too high given the dry air entrainment and hybrid low status. Plenty of buoys and ships in its path, and the maximum I saw reported from a buoy was 40 kts. One ship reported a 50 kt wind, but that ship was reporting consistently a good 10 kts higher than other observations around it. They may not have been adjusting for ship movement properly.

Bottom line, there's no data to support hurricane strength. With Cindy, there were actually a few (or one) surface report of 74 mph wind plus other measurements that indicated 74 mph at the surface. Not so with Alberto.

maybe they should downgrade it to max winds of 40mph...when it came ashore the effects were very minimal as far as wind - there is no way it was even a strong TS...

[StormScanWx]

I seriously doubt Alberto had any 70 mph sustained wind. Recon was flying without SFMR (per Derek). With a core as tilted as Alberto's due to shear, it was very difficult to drop dropsondes in the max wind area. Recon was using a 0.9 FL to surface conversion, which was likely way too high given the dry air entrainment and hybrid low status. Plenty of buoys and ships in its path, and the maximum I saw reported from a buoy was 40 kts. One ship reported a 50 kt wind, but that ship was reporting consistently a good 10 kts higher than other observations around it. They may not have been adjusting for ship movement properly.

Bottom line, there's no data to support hurricane strength. With Cindy, there were actually a few (or one) surface report of 74 mph wind plus other measurements that indicated 74 mph at the surface. Not so with Alberto.

I suppose the NHC CANNOT upgrade Alberto, because of the reasons you mentioned, correct?

I appreciate EVERY comment in this thread.

This is very useful information as I do my post-storm information with Alberto, basically I'm doing a post-storm analysis like the NHC does, but before the season is over.

EDIT: Does the NHC have reasons to downgrade Alberto like boca_chris said?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though not a hurricane, one thing the NHC might need to change is the fact that I think Alberto was a tropical or subtropical storm just off the coast of NC. There were reports of wind gusts as high as 62mph in parts of NC within the western bands of the then "TD" Alberto, and there was even some tree damage. JB talked about this yesterday and today in his column as well.

[wxman57]

I seriously doubt Alberto had any 70 mph sustained wind. Recon was flying without SFMR (per Derek). With a core as tilted as Alberto's due to shear, it was very difficult to drop dropsondes in the max wind area. Recon was using a 0.9 FL to surface conversion, which was likely way too high given the dry air entrainment and hybrid low status. Plenty of buoys and ships in its path, and the maximum I saw reported from a buoy was 40 kts. One ship reported a 50 kt wind, but that ship was reporting consistently a good 10 kts higher than other observations around it. They may not have been adjusting for ship movement properly.

Bottom line, there's no data to support hurricane strength. With Cindy, there were actually a few (or one) surface report of 74 mph wind plus other measurements that indicated 74 mph at the surface. Not so with Alberto.

maybe they should downgrade it to max winds of 40mph...when it came ashore the effects were very minimal as far as wind - there is no way it was even a strong TS...

No, not 40 mph. There were several reliable buoys in it's path reporting 40kt winds, and it's possible there were a few pockets of 45 or 50kt winds. But 60kt winds is probably an exaggeration based solely upon a 90% FL to surface wind conversion.

[Coredesat]

Though not a hurricane, one thing the NHC might need to change is the fact that I think Alberto was a tropical or subtropical storm just off the coast of NC.

Tropical storms don't get labeled subtropical if they're becoming extratropical.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Though not a hurricane, one thing the NHC might need to change is the fact that I think Alberto was a tropical or subtropical storm just off the coast of NC.

Tropical storms don't get labeled subtropical if they're becoming extratropical.

I don't think it was extratropical yet at that point.

[AJC3]

Though not a hurricane, one thing the NHC might need to change is the fact that I think Alberto was a tropical or subtropical storm just off the coast of NC.

Tropical storms don't get labeled subtropical if they're becoming extratropical.

I don't think it was extratropical yet at that point.

Aside from the fact that the convection was well north of the surface center, by the time NHC had declared Alberto XTROP, it already had well defined surface temperature and dewpoint gradients (which was mentioned in the last TCD IIRC) - enough to where the surface analyses were showing both warm and cold frontal boundaries extending from the center of circulation. By definition, neither a TS nor an STS has frontal boundaries.

[StormScanWx]

Just out of curiousity, does anyone out there think we had a hurricane at some point?

Don't be afraid to speak up!