Abstract Thought: Is a Typhoon Tip Possible in the Atlantic

[mempho]

Basin? Imagine a storm that would provide the entire southeast with gale and hurricane force winds. I just wonder if that's even possible given the smaller size of the Atlantic Basin and other environmental factors.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I think we had this discussion once before. (not trying to be sarcastic--only trying to remember the thread ).. I seriously doubt it for all of the above mentioned reasons... and doubtless some not mentioned.

A2K

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Maybe we will get one this season. I don't know how possible it is but with a faverable upper level enviroment. And a large tropical wave moving off Africa...A Gilbert,Allen kind of system that go out of control. It maybe possible.

[Brent]

Highly unlikely. The only place I could see it happening would be the middle of the Atlantic. The Gulf and Caribbean aren't large enough to support it.

[mempho]

If such a storm formed in the Atlantic and entered the Gulf, what do you think would happen?

[CHRISTY]

THE ONE AND ONLY!

[Cyclenall]

It's funny you post this because I was going to ask the same question or post my thoughts in my first long post here. As many of us know, Tip is a God of Tropical Cyclones and storms in general.

Yes, I believe it is possible in the Atlantic Ocean. I think about this Tip in this basin. However, the chances of it happening would be small. I can't see a reason why not and the size of the ocean is not a issue. On this forum I heard some people say it's a good thing the Atlantic could never hold a storm like Tip. I disagree, it would be super rare but not impossible.

If this happened soon then made landfall, God help us.

[Cyclenall]

If such a storm formed in the Atlantic and entered the Gulf, what do you think would happen?

The outer rain bands of Tip would come into land days before landfall. It would be a nightmare for millions of people. It would most likely weaken before landfall but the size would just be incredible.

Highly unlikely. The only place I could see it happening would be the middle of the Atlantic. The Gulf and Caribbean aren't large enough to support it.

Yes, but the storm may not get smaller when it enters the GOM by itself. Then what?



This is Tip? Why is it un-named? Where did the name "Tip" come from?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yes, but the storm may not get smaller when it enters the GOM by itself. Then what?

According to "official" data, the storm was much larger than the GOM, hence it would have to get smaller if for no other reason than interaction with land. Personally, I will reiterate, I don't think it a probability.... in the absence of adequate records I suppose anything is a "possibility", but doubt the likelihood.

A2K

[P.K.]

This is Tip? Why is it un-named? Where did the name "Tip" come from?

They don't put the names on the official track images either. http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/yohou/typhoon/data/T7920.png

[wxman57]

It depends upon what you mean by "like Tip". From recent banter back and forth among researchers about recon data back then, I believe that Tip's winds were estimated from a wind-pressure relationship. But, as we saw with Katrina and Rita last year, it's the pressure gradient that defines the peak wind, not the absolute pressure. A big storm like Tip might have a lower pressure gradient from core to outside the eyewall than a tiny hurricane like Wilma. Therefore, Tip's peak winds may have been lower than estimated.

Here's an article suggesting that at least supertyphoons may have been stronger than Tip, but there was no recon at the time.

http://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techpr ... _75465.htm

[mempho]

Well, this thought didn't come to me totally out of the blue. I was listening to JB on the Talkin' Tropics show and he was talking about some storms back in other active periods that had a huge breadth of hurricane-force winds and it occurred to me that we don't know a lot about what to expect in "active periods" other than more storms. It could just be me, but it does seem that the breadth of the storms has been larger the past few years leaving me to wonder how big can a storm get in the Atlantic.

[P.K.]

A big storm like Tip might have a lower pressure gradient from core to outside the eyewall than a tiny hurricane like Wilma. Therefore, Tip's peak winds may have been lower than estimated.

140kts only converts to 161kts so when they say 165kts there it is a bit high. It didn't stay this strong for long though.

79101018 002 5 140 1403 920 090 90055 0055 90200 0200
79101100 002 5 142 1393 900 130 90070 0070 90225 0225
79101106 002 5 145 1393 900 130 90120 0120 90250 0250
79101112 002 5 151 1393 900 130 90120 0120 80300 0250
79101118 002 5 160 1388 895 120 90120 0120 80300 0250
79101200 002 5 165 1381 875 120 90120 0120 80350 0250
79101206 002 5 168 1376 870 140 90150 0150 80350 0300
79101212 002 5 169 1370 890 125 90150 0150 80450 0325
79101218 002 5 169 1368 900 125 90150 0150 80450 0350
79101300 002 5 167 1362 905 110 70200 0150 70600 0250
79101306 002 5 167 1358 905 110 70250 0150 70600 0300
79101312 002 5 168 1352 910 110 70250 0150 70600 0300
79101318 002 5 169 1346 915 110 70225 0175 70600 0300
79101400 002 5 170 1340 920 100 90200 0200 70600 0300
79101406 002 5 172 1334 920 100 90200 0200 70600 0300

[wxman57]

Well, this thought didn't come to me totally out of the blue. I was listening to JB on the Talkin' Tropics show and he was talking about some storms back in other active periods that had a huge breadth of hurricane-force winds and it occurred to me that we don't know a lot about what to expect in "active periods" other than more storms. It could just be me, but it does seem that the breadth of the storms has been larger the past few years leaving me to wonder how big can a storm get in the Atlantic.

Here's a graphic I made that might help out. Now the data from before the late 1980s is not very extensive, but I think you can see that Gilbert and Carla probably define fairly well the peak size in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico. The graphic also shows that Ivan, Katrina, and Rita really weren't so big when compared to some of the big names of the past. Sure, they were larger than average, but not unprecedented.

Generally, though, I think that the peak size may be somewhat limited by the relative size of the Atlantic Basin with respect to the Pacific. There may not be as much "room to grow" in the Atlantic as defined by expanse of water and pressure fields.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/gulfstorms.gif

[wxman57]

A big storm like Tip might have a lower pressure gradient from core to outside the eyewall than a tiny hurricane like Wilma. Therefore, Tip's peak winds may have been lower than estimated.

140kts only converts to 161kts so when they say 165kts there it is a bit high. It didn't stay this strong for long though.

79101018 002 5 140 1403 920 090 90055 0055 90200 0200
79101100 002 5 142 1393 900 130 90070 0070 90225 0225
79101106 002 5 145 1393 900 130 90120 0120 90250 0250
79101112 002 5 151 1393 900 130 90120 0120 80300 0250
79101118 002 5 160 1388 895 120 90120 0120 80300 0250
79101200 002 5 165 1381 875 120 90120 0120 80350 0250
79101206 002 5 168 1376 870 140 90150 0150 80350 0300
79101212 002 5 169 1370 890 125 90150 0150 80450 0325
79101218 002 5 169 1368 900 125 90150 0150 80450 0350
79101300 002 5 167 1362 905 110 70200 0150 70600 0250
79101306 002 5 167 1358 905 110 70250 0150 70600 0300
79101312 002 5 168 1352 910 110 70250 0150 70600 0300
79101318 002 5 169 1346 915 110 70225 0175 70600 0300
79101400 002 5 170 1340 920 100 90200 0200 70600 0300
79101406 002 5 172 1334 920 100 90200 0200 70600 0300

140kts converts to 161 kts in a hurricane with an average pressure gradient. Could have been significantly less in Tip.

[P.K.]

Another thing, the other TYs they mention were not analysed as strong as they say there. Tip was 20kts stronger than the most intense TY they list.

Yuri (Nov, 1991) - 120kts converts to 138kts
Gay (Nov, 1992) - 110kts converts to 126kts
Angela (Nov, 1995) - 115kts converts to 132kts

[wxman57]

Another thing, the other TYs they mention were not analysed as strong as they say there. Tip was 20kts stronger than the most intense TY they list.

Yuri (Nov, 1991) - 120kts converts to 138kts
Gay (Nov, 1992) - 110kts converts to 126kts
Angela (Nov, 1995) - 115kts converts to 132kts

Not sure what you mean. The author of the paper Karl Horrau, thinks that Yuri, Gay, and Angela may have peaked at 170 kts based on Dvorak. Here's a quote from his paper:

"Among the strongest TCs in the WPAC since August, 1987, we found three candidates which had ODT numbers higher than Tip, between 8.3 and 8.5, and for a longer time period. These TCs are: Yuri (Nov, 1991), Gay (Nov, 1992) and Angela (Nov, 1995). These typhoons reached manual Dvorak T-numbers of 8.0 without a spiral band and which persisted for six to twelve hours. A remarkable and common feature of these three cyclones was that the ODT and manual Dvorak T-numbers peaked at the same time. The peak MSW of Yuri, Gay and Angela have been estimated at 150 knots, 160 knots and 155 knots, respectively (1991, 1992 and 1995 ATCRs). In addition, in 1997 three TCs were estimated to have peaked at 160 knots: Ivan (Oct), Joan (Oct) and Paka (Dec). If the analysis of these latter typhoons justified 160 knots, this would strongly suggest that Yuri, Gay and Angela were even more intense. So, in conclusion, we believe that these three TCs could be classified at the top of the Dvorak scale with the MSW near 170 knots."

[Audrey2Katrina]

Katrina, and Rita really weren't so big when compared to some of the big names of the past.

I respectfully disagree. I've read current sources stating that both of these storms were huge, and that Katrina might well have been the largest "hurricane" to hit North America, in sheer size. I'm not going to agree with that; but to say she wasn't that big compared to some of the storms of the past is a bit of a stretch to say the least. I would point out 2 things:

1.) In the "past" they didn't have satellite imagery to give us an adequate concept of the size of the actual storm. And we can get into the semantics of what is, or is not actually associated with that storm.

2.) If you'll look at my avatar, that is a NASA satellite image of Katrina in the GOM, if you look at all the outflow, the feeder bands, and areas clearly associated with this storm, you'll see cloud layers extending east completely over the peninsula of Florida and into the Atlantic... west, she had clouds associated with her all the way to Texas/Mexico border, and North, well inland almost to the Tennessee state line with Mississippi/Alabama, and South, well over the Yucatan. That, by any standard is a huge storm and completely encompassed the GOM and most of the BOC. Yes, you can justifiably contend that the actual "storm" is only that area of brightest white, and/or hurricane/TS wind fields... in which case hurricane winds extending up to 120 miles from the center still fits the "huge" category in my book.

I know we've had this discussion before, Wxman57, and I'm not going to begin another Carla-vs-Katrina discussion because it serves no purpose. I respect your professional opinion, very much; but I respectfully disagree with your concluison on the not "so big" size of Katrina. And I think quite a few other mets would agree with me. I guess "huge" is in the size of the beholder.

A2K

[CHRISTY]

[gatorcane]

Katrina, and Rita really weren't so big when compared to some of the big names of the past.

I respectfully disagree. I've read current sources stating that both of these storms were huge, and that Katrina might well have been the largest "hurricane" to hit North America, in sheer size. I'm not going to agree with that; but to say she wasn't that big compared to some of the storms of the past is a bit of a stretch to say the least. I would point out 2 things:

1.) In the "past" they didn't have satellite imagery to give us an adequate concept of the size of the actual storm. And we can get into the semantics of what is, or is not actually associated with that storm.

2.) If you'll look at my avatar, that is a NASA satellite image of Katrina in the GOM, if you look at all the outflow, the feeder bands, and areas clearly associated with this storm, you'll seed cloud layers extending east completely over the peninsula of Florida and into the Atlantic... west, she had clouds associated with her all the way to Texas/Mexico border, and North, well inland almost to the Tennessee state line with Mississippi/Alabama, and South, well over the Yucatan. That, by any standard is a huge storm and completely encompassed the GOM and most of the BOC. Yes, you can justifiably contend that the actual "storm" is only that area of brightest white, and/or hurricane/TS wind fields... in which case hurricane winds extending up to 120 miles from the center still fits the "huge" category in my book.

I know we've had this discussion before, Wxman57, and I'm not going to begin another Carla-vs-Katrina discussion because it serves no purpose. I respect your professional opinion, very much; but I respectfully disagree with your concluison on the not "so big" size of Katrina. And I think quite a few other mets would agree with me. I guess "huge" is in the size of the beholder.

A2K

Actually I respectfully disagree with you because once Katrina and Rita got north of about 30N they weakened and shrunk in size dramatically - so they were not the "biggest" to hit the US. Even Wilma weakened as it gained lattitude. I don't think the GOM or the Western Atlantic north of 30N can support storms like Gilbert, Andrew, Isabel, etc. However, the southern 1/3 peninsula of Florida has the highest potential of getting hit by a mammoth storm in the US for geographic reasons. In addition the Western Caribbean, the NW Caribbean, the Florida Straits through the Bahamas, and southern half of the GOM south of 30N has the highest chances of supporting a CAT 5.