What happens when this gets into the GOM?

[Stormcenter]

What happens when the mess that was over Houston gets into the GOM, if anything?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[WindRunner]

Nothing much. Pressures aren't really that low in the area - lowest pressures at the surface are down near Brownsville/Corpus area, so unless the ULL that is moving with these storms stalls over the Gulf, I wouldn't expect much out of it.

[dwg71]

I believe it is forecast to move SW and stay over land. I dont think this is a tropical cylcone threat. It did help with rainfall totals in our area though.

[gatorcane]

Nothing much. Pressures aren't really that low in the area - lowest pressures at the surface are down near Brownsville/Corpus area, so unless the ULL that is moving with these storms stalls over the Gulf, I wouldn't expect much out of it.

nothing at all - its very unusual thunderstorm complexes blowing off a land area in the GOM develop - you need to go over to Africa or the SW Caribbean for that

[Extremeweatherguy]

If the MLL/ULL can move over the Gulf (which it is not expected to), then I would say that there is a slight chance it could develop. Alicia in 1983 started out as a complex of storms over Houston, moved into the Gulf off LA, and became a Cat. 3 Hurricane just days later. Also, Allison in 2001 had weakened to considerably over land into a similar-type low, and was able to become a subtropical storm in the Gulf. Nothing is impossible, and with pressures down in the 1012mb range already, I would say that there is a 25% chance of development if this can move offshore. Either way though, this will be as damaging as a TS or TD. Already it looks like millions in damages have been done by flooding, and with more rain later today, we could see even higher damage tolls. I would not be surprised to see deaths from this either.

BTW: The circulation of the precip. is becoming more visible on radar.

[Dean4Storms]

Something to keep an eye on if it moves out into the Gulf for sure.

[southerngale]

The low isn't in Houston right now...it's in Liberty. It's not moving much either, but I haven't heard anyone mention it getting into the GOM and/or that being a problem.

Then again, I didn't expect to wake up to school closings and flooding here either. I just heard Gov. Perry is sending emergency state resources to help Southeast Texas respond to today's flooding.

[HoustonTexas]

From what I've heard, it's supposed to make a loop and make a NE to SW path later tonight following the low.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The low isn't in Houston right now...it's in Liberty. It's not moving much either, but I haven't heard anyone mention it getting into the GOM and/or that being a problem.

Then again, I didn't expect to wake up to school closings and flooding here either. I just heard Gov. Perry is sending emergency state resources to help Southeast Texas respond to today's flooding.

your right, this is not in Houston right now and it is barely moving, but if the forecast is right then this will move through Houston this evening and drift SW of the city getting danergously close to the Gulf. I doubt this will develop tropically, but as past storms have shown...there is always a chance.

[Diva]

So, southerngale, from what you're hearing will it get worse here before it gets better? We're in Orange and the water is getting dangerously close to the house.

[HouTXmetro]

Turkey Creek in Southeast Houston has spilled over into my neighborhood. I had to wade through THIGH DEEP water to make it home and leave my car on higher ground. . Forecasters are predicting more rain

[Dean4Storms]

You guys be careful over there.

[bbadon]

Guys, this circulation is getting pretty pronounced. I recall with Allison some pro mets said that surfaces lows can actually deepen over land given the right conditions. As I recall Allison deepend 1 mb over land. Could get very interesting if this thngs gets closer to the gulf. Pro Mets chime in here please.

[Johnny]

Where can I get some close in visible satellite loops for Southeast, Texas?

[Stratosphere747]

Where can I get some close in visible satellite loops for Southeast, Texas?

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.1kmvis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

The scary thing would be if this moved offshore, developed, and then moved back toward TX. What a disaster that would be.

[Stratosphere747]

It does not even have to do that. If this low tracks just far enough west and does it slow enough, than we could have something similar to Allison, if not worse...

The abundance of tropical moisture this thing is tapping into is something else.

[HouTXmetro]

The scary thing would be if this moved offshore, developed, and then moved back toward TX. What a disaster that would be.

I know that the Upper Low is onshore, any chance some type of low could develop at the surface on the GOM? It's some big storms out there.

[GalvestonDuck]

I remember severe training rain and storms coming in on the Sunday before Allison (I remember so well because a power surge killed my computer that day). But I'm pretty sure Allison developed over the water and was NOT the same system that started on land just two days before her.

Then again, I wasn't a storm forum reader back then and it wasn't until Allison that I joined. So I don't recall all the meteorological details about what happened.

[Stratosphere747]

Allison's low was still considered tropical in nature, while this is a mid-level low.

Looking at radar over the last few hours though...