Caribbean Thread June 21+ (Discussion, models, etc)

[rockyman]

Our little wave-that-could is now getting close to the Western Caribbean...so I thought I'd start a new thread to discuss this feature...

There seems to be tons of cyclonic turning in the southwest Caribbean...and our tropical wave could add fuel to the fire

Right now, the only place in the Caribbean where shear is less than 20knots is just north of Panama and Colombia:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

The 8am TWD had this to say:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. STRONG
WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS NOT ORGANIZED
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA/PANAMA FROM 75W/77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N67W-18N75W-
15N80W.

[cycloneye]

No problem at all to make a new thread for this wave because the Atlantic Tropical Waves,comments,sat pics thread is for waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

[rockyman]

Vorticity in the lower levels is pretty high NW of Colombia...but non-existent in the upper levels (which is conducive for development):


Realtime Atlantic Winds at 850mb (lower levels)

Realtime Atlantic Winds at 200mb (upper levels)

[rockyman]

Doesn't this indicate an upper high over the SW Caribbean?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

If you watch this water vapor loop carefully, you can see the heavy convection (bright white clouds) turning counter-clockwise, while light cirrus clouds turn clockwise over the southwest Caribbean:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[cycloneye]

rockyman,I took out the large graphics that you posted and made hypertext links.

[O Town]

Been watching that area above Panama for a day or two. Could indeed get interesting with our little wave.

Close up of that area.
Click to enlarge.

[Tampa_God]

could this get cauht with the tropical wave and move into the Carribean?

[rockyman]

The CMC 850mb Vorticity 00z shows the wave possibly pulling some energy from the SW Caribbean northward as the system crosses the Yucatan and ends up on the north coast in 5 days....in 5 days, the Canadian is also showing a major weakness in the central Gomex caused by the system now east of the Bahamas...which would likely cause the Caribbean system to recurve toward the US beyond 5 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


The GFS shows the first piece of energy continuing into the Pacific, with another piece staying behind, then coming ashores in Belize by Day 5.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

The MM5 shows the wave moving close to Nicaragua, then a piece of energy getting pulled north into the Gulf of Honduras and intensifying a little:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

NOGAPS shows the system crashing into Central America, with possibly something emerging the BOC on Day 5:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[HurricaneHunter914]

Shear is decreasing around this system, which might help enchance development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[Stormcenter]

The area in the central Carribean is looking just as interesting as the Bahamas mess.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

you're right, its looking as interesting as the Bahamas system. Neither are very interesting at all and pose no threat of any development in the near term

[rockyman]

Does Derecho still post on this board?

[Stormcenter]

you're right, its looking as interesting as the Bahamas system. Neither are very interesting at all and pose no threat of any development in the near term

What is "your" definition of near term.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Derek Ortt]

3 days

[Stormcenter]

3 days

Thanks for the clarification.

[Dean4Storms]

You guys are overheating the servers around here.