NAM

#1 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:24 am

The NAM is now being posted at the Cyclone Phase and Analysis page.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

MiamiensisWx · #2 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:27 am

The latest NAM run posted there seems to deepen a weak warmish core at the lower levels while having the system move erratically under a mid-level ridge, eventually hinting to stall it off the east-central Florida coast. That seems to be a plausible scenario, given the synoptics.

#3 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:20 pm

GFS, MM5-FSU and UKMET show nothing. Also the NHC doesn't expect anything at this time. I'll put my money on this.

#4 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:25 pm

Trader Ron wrote:GFS, MM5-FSU and UKMET show nothing. Also the NHC doesn't expect anything at this time. I'll put my money on this.

I will have the crow ready when you pick out the sauce you want.

#5 Postby **Trader Ron** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:27 pm

The same goes for you, and the other folks who think this"blob" will develop.

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:29 pm

Trader Ron wrote:The same goes for you, and the other folks who think this"blob" will develop.

Agreed

Stratusxpeye · #7 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:41 pm

I'll take sweet n sour sauce with my crow if this does not develop. Im giving it 60% overall chance of being something wether it a TD Or wave event for florida given us lots of well needed rain.

#8 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:44 pm

I believe the new name for the new NAM should be the WCS "Worse Case Scenario". We will see so many spurious lows this year that it will soon be ignored.

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:58 pm

Even if nothing develops (most likely at the moment), every computer system deserves to be taken seriously although they may not be the most accurate. By saying "seriously" I don't say that you should put your money on it but keep an eye on the following runs to see persistence which is the key. Remember that CMC is almost never taken seriously and it was the first to detect Alberto.

#10 Postby **terstorm1012** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 2:04 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Even if nothing develops (most likely at the moment), every computer system deserves to be taken seriously although they may not be the most accurate. By saying "seriously" I don't say that you should put your money on it but keep an eye on the following runs to see persistence which is the key. Remember that CMC is almost never taken seriously and it was the first to detect Alberto.

I thought the GFS did when it was spinning up spurious systems in the Gulf, near Belize and off the Carolinas toward the middle and end of May?

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