BAHAMA Disturbance Thread #2

[drezee]

Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85849

[Derek Ortt]

in regard to Chir's question from the previous thread

not heading by the NHC this week, unfortunately... but I can always send john a quick e-mail

[wxman57]

in regard to Chir's question from the previous thread

not heading by the NHC this week, unfortunately... but I can always send john a quick e-mail

Could you do that? Tell him I'd really like to get out on my mountain bike and get some miles in this weekend rather than work 12-16 hours each day.

[CHRISTY]

in regard to Chir's question from the previous thread

not heading by the NHC this week, unfortunately... but I can always send john a quick e-mail

Derek can u make a map showin were u think a LLC may form .thanks chrisy.

[Derek Ortt]

just sent him an e-mail... told him I want to be at Marathon on Saturday, lol

[Derek Ortt]

I only do graphics when there is a classified TC

[drezee]

Hey, it might not mean much...but I think both of you deserve so R&R...you will likely wish for it even more later in the hurricane season

I am starting to get interested in the convection over Central American and the interaction of the Upper Low over the Bahamas. From the picture you posted wxman, it looks like it would have a nice upper environment in the East Pac and less of one in the NW Caribbean.

[drezee]

Interesting Quote Rainband

I think calling the NHC "alarmists" sets a dangerous precedent coming from a "pro" met. Imho it was a bad choice of words. In My opinion after last year we saw how bad complacency was/is. A comment from a "pro" Met like that only serves to increase that complacency and diminish the authority and effectiveness of this Official Organization.

It does play on the point of the pro mets having pressure on them, because of the weight of their opinions versus regular users. I completely understand his point, but as with all non-human interactive communication....there is always the possiblity of misinterpretation.

[Rainband]

Interesting Quote Rainband

I think calling the NHC "alarmists" sets a dangerous precedent coming from a "pro" met. Imho it was a bad choice of words. In My opinion after last year we saw how bad complacency was/is. A comment from a "pro" Met like that only serves to increase that complacency and diminish the authority and effectiveness of this Official Organization.

It does play on the point of the pro mets having pressure on them, because of the weight of their opinions versus regular users. I completely understand his point, but as with all non-human interactive communication....there is always the possiblity of misinterpretation.

Which is why I made mine Point that is

[bvigal]

OK, I'm going to BEG that someone PLEASE answer this question. If I'm reading these sheer maps wrong, and being stupid, I want to resolve that problem ASAP!!

**************
wxman57 wrote:

It's already on the southwest side of the Bermuda High. With an upper-level low to its southwest, a WNW to NW motion is most likely. Shear still looks to be very strong, though, as strong as yesterday or stronger.


I've a question, too wxman57.

Am I misinterpreting this map, from 2100UTC:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
which shows shear at 5kts over this thing?
********************
I've now saved that shear map from CIMSS on imageshack, at:
http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/3263/w ... sys3nb.gif

Can anyone tell me what this map shows for shear over this area in question, about 27N 75W?

[curtadams]

I've a question, too wxman57.

Am I misinterpreting this map, from 2100UTC:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
which shows shear at 5kts over this thing?
********************
I've now saved that shear map from CIMSS on imageshack, at:
http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/3263/w ... sys3nb.gif

Can anyone tell me what this map shows for shear over this area in question, about 27N 75W?

You are interpreting the map correctly BUT shear maps are not always right. IMO they underestimated the shear around Alberto, as well as this thing, on several occasions - shear maps would show very low shear but satellite would show high clouds whizzing on through. YMMV

[AJC3]

OK, I'm going to BEG that someone PLEASE answer this question. If I'm reading these sheer maps wrong, and being stupid, I want to resolve that problem ASAP!!

**************
wxman57 wrote:

It's already on the southwest side of the Bermuda High. With an upper-level low to its southwest, a WNW to NW motion is most likely. Shear still looks to be very strong, though, as strong as yesterday or stronger.


I've a question, too wxman57.

Am I misinterpreting this map, from 2100UTC:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
which shows shear at 5kts over this thing?
********************
I've now saved that shear map from CIMSS on imageshack, at:
http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/3263/w ... sys3nb.gif

Can anyone tell me what this map shows for shear over this area in question, about 27N 75W?

To answer your question, the area of shear AOB 5KT, as one would expect, is at the center of the upper low. Keep in mind the surface trough is quite elongated and extends north-south about 10 degrees of latitude between 23N-33N and 73W-75W (give or take a degree or two).

In addition to the convection being displaced to the east of the surface trough axis, keep in mind the thermodynamic environment above it is less than ideal. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of dry and stable air aloft, which is typical for the northern and western quadrants of TUTT-type troughs.

[spinfan4eva]

I really & seriously dont expect this system to develop because....

....... its June and systems dont form in the Bahamas in the month of june according to this map: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/june.gif It does show color farther north but that is because June storms have formed in the Carribean and moved northeast across the gulf stream off Ga/N FLA

This Graphic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pastprofileAT.gif shows that our second storm climatologically forms around august 1st. June sees a Named storm about once every 2 years and in the past 2 years we have seen 3.

This link http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Shows that there is model support for nothing more than a broad-weak area of low pressure off the southeast coast and at least one model would be screaming deep Low pressure if there was even a remote chance. With Alberto, the Canadian was showing a strong TS/Weak hurricane days before the NHC even mentioned it. Models are bad about sounding false alarms and forming spurious cyclones, not missing cyclones entirely.

[bvigal]

Thank you both, that was very informative!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

systems do occassionally develop off of the U.S. East Coast in June. In fact, 1996-1997 had 3 June systems off of the East Coast

[wxman57]

I think we also have to consider some "political aspects" as far as TS potential here. If this system were by Africa, I have no doubt that it would not get the attention that it will be getting just off the coast of Florida (by the NHC). So the forecasters at the NHC may be more inclined to name a somewhat questionable storm this weekend because of the potential immediate threat to the U.S. than they would the same system 1500 miles offshore. I'm not saying that it's wrong for them to do so. Those NHC forecasters must be under tremendous pressure by just about everyone to get watches/warnings out ASAP if there is any possible threat. But the proximity to land is something to consider when trying to outguess whether or not the NHC will name something.

Plus, Derek and I have weekend plans and don't want to spend the weekend working. The NHC guys like to screw up our weekends.

[Aquawind]

I hope it does soak somebody. Interesting Low out near 9N as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

I hope it does soak somebody. Interesting Low out near 9N as well.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Interesting stuff ...

[CHRISTY]

[shannon]

No offense to the pro mets, I always look for your responses first when I am browsing the forms, however, it has been reiterated time and time again in the past posts about "having to work the weekend when you were scheduled off," believe me when I say that I sympathize w/ that, BUT isn't that part of the job that you were trained and should be prepared for at this time of year??