Northwest Carib. Disturbance

no advance · #1 Postby **no advance** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:05 pm

Looks more impressive than our system in the Bahamas. Any thoughts tonight as it moves WNlW or NW.

#2 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:06 pm

I don't see any disturbance in the NW Carribean...just the wave that's moving inland over Central America.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:07 pm

skysummit wrote:I don't see any disturbance in the NW Carribean...just the wave that's moving inland over Central America.

I agree

CHRISTY · #4 Postby **CHRISTY** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:08 pm

That disturbance seems to moving west so iam not expecting much.

#5 Postby **hriverajr** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:37 pm

CHRISTY wrote:That disturbance seems to moving west so iam not expecting much.

I have to agree with no advance. I think it is going advance into the BOC. At least part of it is .. and their seems to be high pressure aloft.

#6 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 8:39 pm

NHC indicates in the TWD graphic that a Tropical Wave is approaching that area...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THAT AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE W CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 82W-86W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

24 Hour Forecast - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

#7 Postby **hriverajr** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:09 pm

What could possibly happen is a piece of it breaks off or/and you have a moisture surge to the north. I give that about a 50/50 chance of that h appening. As far as any development is whole other story contigent on the first prediction happening.
I have seen it happen before.

rolltide · #8 Postby **rolltide** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:20 pm

hriverajr wrote:What could possibly happen is a piece of it breaks off or/and you have a moisture surge to the north. I give that about a 50/50 chance of that h appening. As far as any development is whole other story contigent on the first prediction happening.
I have seen it happen before.

I agree that the northern part of the wave may split off heading NW while the southern part heads west in the EPAC. We see in the next few days I guess.

Extremeweatherguy · #9 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:22 pm

If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

#10 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:22 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

Is that the trough he is refering to?

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:24 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:If JB is right, then a trough split combined with a more north-tracked wave train will lead to the possibility of something developing toward the middle to later part of next week in the Gulf (west of 90W).

Is that the trough he is refering to?

No, I don't think so, but the waves that are down there now may be a sign of what to expect entering the gulf and meeting up with the trough split he is expecting next week.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:27 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast. I think the trough JB may be talking about is the one dipicted in the central Gulf (or it could be the one further west over TX as it moves east?). Also, take a look at the two impressive waves on the map...one in the Caribbean and one east of the islands. Looks like as this all meets up in 4-8 days, there could be a chance of development.

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast. I think the trough JB may be talking about is the one dipicted in the central Gulf (or it could be the one further west over TX as it moves east?). Also, take a look at the two impressive waves on the map...one in the Caribbean and one east of the islands. Looks like as this all meets up in 4-8 days, there could be a chance of development.

good stuff thanks for answering my question.

no advance · #14 Postby **no advance** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 9:39 pm

Is this the wave that went through the leewards about five days ago. Looks like it has really flared up. Thankfully it is near land. Water is warm could be a epac storm. ASP surf tour is near Puerto Escondido right now hopefully they continue to get excellent weather. http://www.aspworldtour.com/ripcurlpro/ The waves for the tournament have been incredible courtisey of a south pac winter storm.

HurricaneHunter914 · #15 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:26 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

If this does make its way into the EPAC without getting detereorated, could it have the chance to become a TD or possible TS?

Northwest Carib. Disturbance

Northwest Carib. Disturbance

I Agree

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