91L invest Bahamas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Post away here all about 91L.

[Stratusxpeye]

Watch the board roll now! I bet this was due to those naked swirl first visibles of the day this morning around 7:30 or so eastern time. You can see a An LLC there very exposed and naked but it's there. here we go again let's see if Beryl can come visit.

[wxman57]

Here's a visible shot with sfc plots. I can see at least 3 eddies rotating around the upper-level low center. Upper low appears to be drifting southward. Heaviest convection is in the southeast quadrant of the low, as would be expected. This convection is refiring southward as the low moves to the south. No focus for development with such a broad area of low prssure (no inflow into one area).

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/bahamas3.gif

[bucman1]

Cyclone,

You don't know me but this is my 2nd season on the site and you do a hell of a job in what you do.

Craig

[wxman57]

Watch the board roll now! I bet this was due to those naked swirl first visibles of the day this morning around 7:30 or so eastern time. You can see a An LLC there very exposed and naked but it's there. here we go again let's see if Beryl can come visit.

See my post above. Actually, there are 3 naked swirls, possilby another hidden by storms east of the upper low.

[cycloneye]

Cyclone,

You don't know me but this is my 2nd season on the site and you do a hell of a job in what you do.

Craig

Thank you.Well that is what I do as a moderator,to keep the forum running smoothly and providing the latest information as soon it is available.I guess many sites still does not have the information about the invest posted as we have at 8:29 AM EDT.

[drezee]

NRL PIC

[caneman]

I'm noticing alot more of those popcorn type Thunderstorms that you see in a developing system.

[Coredesat]

From the 8:05 AM TWO:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 20N TO
34N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THIS PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WHICH AT ONE POINT IN TIME MORE THAN A
FEW DAYS AGO WAS PART OF A TROUGH. THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT
OFF NEAR 26N74W ABOUT 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY A POSSIBLE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN FLORIDA.

[Nimbus]

I would vote for the swirl near 26.5N 73W. In the later visibles you can start to se some inflow at the lower levels. The sun works its way down from the cloud tops to the surface at sunrise.

[bucman1]

Are conditions favorable for developement?

[Aquawind]

Are conditions favorable for developement?

485
ABNT20 KNHC 230859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI


Not yet..but getting better.

[drezee]

Believe it ot not, but it is better developed at the surface than yesterday. The convection of the West side is more associated with the interaction with an upper feature. It is near 27N and 73.5W.

NRL is using the exact Lat/Long I used yesterday morning...guess it hasn't moved

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I remember a system could td 4 of 2000 which developed like this. So its always possible. I will have a long update when ever I wake up.

[skysummit]

My bet is that one of these swirls will win the battle over the next couple days. Who thinks???

[Coredesat]

According to the shear maps on CIMSS, there's only light to moderate upper- and mid-level shear over this system. There's quite a bit of dry air around, too.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Reminds me of that system that developed earlier this month that had many. Maybe these kinds of systems will be the norm this season?

[HURAKAN]

TD 4 2000:

[Nimbus]

These multiple swirl systems are typical for storms spawned from broad low level survace troughs under shear. Dominent center could get classified any time.

Cycloneye will post if the NHC decides on any recon requirement.

Sounds as though the models are steering more west than northwest.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060623 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060623 1200 060624 0000 060624 1200 060625 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 73.5W 27.3N 74.9W 27.7N 76.7W 28.3N 78.4W
BAMM 27.0N 73.5W 27.3N 74.9W 27.7N 76.7W 28.2N 78.3W
A98E 27.0N 73.5W 27.2N 73.8W 27.5N 75.1W 28.5N 76.7W
LBAR 27.0N 73.5W 27.2N 74.2W 27.7N 75.0W 28.6N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060625 1200 060626 1200 060627 1200 060628 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.9N 80.2W 30.9N 82.8W 35.8N 82.6W 42.3N 80.9W
BAMM 28.8N 79.9W 30.6N 82.4W 34.2N 82.3W 38.7N 80.3W
A98E 29.2N 78.3W 31.9N 79.9W 37.1N 77.7W 46.4N 74.4W
LBAR 29.5N 76.7W 32.6N 77.4W 37.8N 76.1W 47.3N 72.8W
SHIP 40KTS 55KTS 61KTS 59KTS
DSHP 40KTS 31KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First model plots for 91L.