92L invest MidAtlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[TheEuropean]

Here we go:



NRL: 25kts, pressure n.a., position: 341N-490W

[Starburst]

I knew that was coming I looked at is early this morning and even checked for the invest and it was not up yet. Thanks for posting it.

[wxman57]

Right now, it's a giant upper-level low (and surface low). Cold core, but it's forming where many of the Greek storms did at the end of the 2005 season. If it gets enough convection around the center and its core warms a bit, it could get named. No threat at all to any land areas though.

[Thunder44]

Looks very impressive on visible imagery this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20060624 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060624 1200 060625 0000 060625 1200 060626 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.1N 49.0W 34.7N 50.4W 35.0N 52.0W 35.0N 53.6W
BAMM 34.1N 49.0W 34.8N 50.4W 35.4N 52.0W 35.9N 53.6W
A98E 34.1N 49.0W 35.0N 50.2W 35.0N 52.1W 33.8N 53.9W
LBAR 34.1N 49.0W 34.9N 50.2W 35.9N 51.7W 36.8N 53.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060626 1200 060627 1200 060628 1200 060629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.6N 55.6W 33.4N 60.4W 33.1N 65.9W 34.2N 69.3W
BAMM 36.3N 55.4W 36.8N 59.3W 38.0N 64.2W 41.0N 67.0W
A98E 32.1N 55.6W 29.0N 60.1W 27.6N 62.5W 28.5N 60.4W
LBAR 37.5N 54.7W 37.6N 57.4W 35.4N 61.1W 33.7N 63.8W
SHIP 39KTS 33KTS 26KTS 22KTS
DSHP 39KTS 33KTS 26KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.1N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 47.7W DIRM12 = 325DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 32.3N LONM24 = 46.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1019MB OUTPRS = 1025MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


First Model Plots for 92L.

[TheEuropean]

Right now, it's a giant upper-level low (and surface low). Cold core, but it's forming where many of the Greek storms did at the end of the 2005 season. If it gets enough convection around the center and its core warms a bit, it could get named. No threat at all to any land areas though.

These "greek" systems are most fish, but sometimes they get to the canaries like "Delta" or to southern spain like "Vince"...

I like these storms like "Epsilon"...

[wxman57]

Taking a look at the pressure in the area, it's inside the 1024mb surface isobar of the Bermuda High, close to the 1027mb line. But I guess low pressure is relative.

[cycloneye]

This really may become sub or tropical storm Beryl not 91L.

[TheEuropean]

This really may become sub or tropical storm Beryl not 91L.

I agree, this one looks more impressive to me than 91L in its whole lifetime so far.

[Starburst]

Here are the noodle plots:

[TheEuropean]

and the first pressure from NRL: 1019 mb - high, but relative low to the high pressure around.

[Thunder44]

Is this the system some of the models where hinting at developing out in the Atlantic after 91L? It looks further north to me.

[wxman57]

Is this the system some of the models where hinting at developing out in the Atlantic after 91L? It looks further north to me.

I believe so.

[cycloneye]

and the first pressure from NRL: 1019 mb - high, but relative low to the high pressure around.

European,the backup site of NRL has pressure of 1012 mbs.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[clfenwi]

Is this the system some of the models where hinting at developing out in the Atlantic after 91L? It looks further north to me.

Looking at the Cyclone phase page , I would say no The models were hinting at an area around 25° N 60 ° W. This invest is well to the northeast of there.

[Starburst]

I think Derek had mentioned another area to look for as soon as 91L got out of the way that the models were hinting at but it was not that far north.

[Aquawind]

Is this the system some of the models where hinting at developing out in the Atlantic after 91L? It looks further north to me.

The canadian had delopment near the 60W line this is near 50W. Hmm

[TheEuropean]

and the first pressure from NRL: 1019 mb - high, but relative low to the high pressure around.

European,the backup site of NRL has pressure of 1012 mbs.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Hm, that seems a bit low to me with such a strong high pressure area to the north. With a 1012 pressure it must be near storm intensity.

[skysummit]

Is this the system some of the models where hinting at developing out in the Atlantic after 91L? It looks further north to me.

I believe so.

This isn't what the models were showing though. For instance the 00z Canadian shows this low, moving northeast then dissapating while another low (the one from the other thread) forms northeast of Puerto Rico and moves out to sea.

[skysummit]

Here's the 00z NOGAPS at 36 hours showing 92L dissapating while the "new" low tries to form.