Convective Thunderstorm Complex in Western Caribbean

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drezee
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Convective Thunderstorm Complex in Western Caribbean

#1 Postby drezee » Sat Jun 24, 2006 2:39 pm

Nice flare-up in Caribbean

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12
Last edited by drezee on Mon Jun 26, 2006 6:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:22 pm

It looks pretty good to me Drezee:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#3 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:25 pm

This caught my eye as well today. If this blow up of convection persists it could be a problem down the road.
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#4 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:33 pm

Watch it become a mitch-like storm in the next 24 hrs. haha
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:51 pm

Drezee, you may have a point with this one.

1# The east side of the upper level Anticyclone is over this area. Which has 5 to 10 knot shear. But shear just north of it increases fast.

2# Moisture seems to be in place. So it may have some chance if it doe's not move or moves eastward.

But overall the models do not show any development with this. In fact if it where to develop it would more likely be over the eastern pacific. Also area's poping up like this have to be around at least 12 to 24 hours before any concern needs to be shown. Why because these things pop up in go down all the time.
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#6 Postby rockyman » Sat Jun 24, 2006 5:14 pm

Seems to be a low level vortex overland near the Belize/Guatemala/Honduras borders...appears to be stationary...

The low level flow is very weak in this area, but would generally steer any system to the NW over the Yucatan then into the SW Gulf/BOC

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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#7 Postby CajunMama » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:18 pm

Ditzy me...I thought you meant S. Carolina!
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#8 Postby southerngale » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:25 pm

CajunMama wrote:Ditzy me...I thought you meant S. Carolina!


It's your birthday...uh-oh...too many already? Image
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#9 Postby CajunMama » Sat Jun 24, 2006 8:32 pm

Too many boiled crabs maybe!!!!!!!
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#10 Postby caribepr » Sat Jun 24, 2006 9:14 pm

I thought it meant South Carolina too...and happy birthday! I'm jealous of the crabs!!
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 25, 2006 9:41 am

convection is looking good but firing north of where it was yesterday - but it looks to be maintaining though...

Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jun 25, 2006 11:25 am

boca_chris wrote:convection is looking good but firing north of where it was yesterday - but it looks to be maintaining though...

Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


Looks like this may be the one to watch after all.
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#13 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 25, 2006 12:33 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
boca_chris wrote:convection is looking good but firing north of where it was yesterday - but it looks to be maintaining though...

Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg


Looks like this may be the one to watch after all.


climatologically speaking it has the highest chances of anything we are tracking in the Atlantic Basin....

I put my money on this one before the others.
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#14 Postby drezee » Sun Jun 25, 2006 12:39 pm

I changed the name from the boredom of yesterday
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#15 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jun 25, 2006 12:40 pm

drezee wrote:I changed the name from the boredom of yesterday


Great because I don't think it is out of boredom anymore....lets see what happens to it.

Here is the latest IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
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#16 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:08 pm

drezee wrote:I changed the name from the boredom of yesterday


:lol: Wondered what happened to that thread. Better title now and worth watching.
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#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:17 pm

it does look good. We will need to watch it as it heads toward the NW Caribbean.
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#18 Postby conestogo_flood » Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:18 pm

Is this a BOC or Pacific system?
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#19 Postby rockyman » Sun Jun 25, 2006 1:31 pm

Steering currents are extemely weak right now...this could be a BOC system or it could move toward the Yucatan Channel...or into Pacific Ocean...it's really gonna depend on where (and when and if) the system forms. :)
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#20 Postby Tampa_God » Sun Jun 25, 2006 4:27 pm

I see a very very slow movement to the NNW. It does have a circulation,maybe low/mid level. This is another one to look after.
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