ITCZ looks perfect in East Pacific

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

Why no develpment? I read a thread about certain gases being released along the Mexican coastline is their any validity to that.

[WindRunner]

Well, I haven't heard anything about a massive fiesta down there . . . but I know some of the bean burritos can be potent in rather small amounts.

[WindRunner]

Sorry, couldn't help it . . . but it does look nice down there.



There is 96E which should be classified at any time, but I haven't heard anything about anything being released into the air down there. It is pretty strong ITCZ convection, though.

[wxmann_91]

GFS has hinted at some development down in this area.

[boca]

This was the post by Mike Duran.

Posted: Sat Jul 01, 2006 12:03 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You know, Guy, I don't think 'shear' has anything to do with it. And I hope I am not stumping on anyone's religion when I say that.

For those of you who have questions for me on Thursday, here is a bit of a tease:

http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... id=1714858

I have had long conversations with Professor Dendy Sloan, an expert on methane hydrates. One of the interesting things he talks about is how gas escaping from hydrates which unform in the deeps of the oceans don't go necessarily straight into the atmosphere. There is a living earth part--where life slurps up the methane and quickly metabolizes it to CO2 . . .

What does that have to do with the EPAC and inactivity? There are significant methane hydrate fields all along the Mexican coast leading up to the Gulf of California. I suggest there is a connection between EPAC tropical storms and methane hydrates--and the description of 'shear' confuses the mechanism.

[AnnularCane]

Well, I haven't heard anything about a massive fiesta down there . . . but I know some of the bean burritos can be potent in rather small amounts.

Apparently more than I thought.

[HurricaneBill]

Basically, the EPAC is in an inactive period, like the Atlantic was from the 1970s to mid 1990s.

[Mike Doran]

The Bates et al Nature 1999 study of decarbonation and Hurricane Felix was also extended to ENSO. Turns out that El Nino causes decarbonation.

Here is my question: What CONDUCTIVITY meaning is there when CO2 comes out of solution from a surface low and its corresponding winds? Think about cracking open your beer after you have shaken it. What happens to the carbonation of your beer? The next question is--what happens to where the 'ions' from the beer occur? How about on the skin of the surface of the ocean when there is a surface low?

If hurricanes cause a displacement current, or a capacitive coupling, how does that movement of carbonation change those electrical fields?

What is then the role of life in this dance?

[chadtm80]

Hey Mike.. No disrespect, but if you are going to ask questions about what ever it is your saying.. You might want to find another way to explain it. I understood you up through the word "the" in your first sentence.. After that. Germen

[WindRunner]

OK, you were referring to that . . . well, unfortunately, that's one of many very lightly explored areas of meteorology that could possibly turn out to be significant in the future, but I'm afraid that I don't know anything about that right now . . . and probably won't anytime in the near future if that post is a sign of anything.

[Mike Doran]

Runner,

This is a very complex area and describing it and getting it communicated in one paragraph isn't likely to happen. However, the electrical aspects of weather are no longer lightly explored. There are a NUMBER of papers that have come out. Mike Watkins mentioned when I was on the show last month that the National Hurricane Center research division have scientists on this subject doing research. I did a search and found several papers, and, of course have seen several papers outside of the NHC. For instance, there have been a number of papers on cosmic ray flux and cloud behaviors, even correlated glaciations. But NONE of these papers address the conductivity meaning of carbonation. So that is the point I am trying to make in this politically uptight atmosphere. Carbonation holds CONDUCTIVITY meaning.

Chad,

The other complexity I like to talk about is the global biosphere. This too causes political reaction, particularly with conservative meteorologists. I think it causes extreme reactions for two reasons. The first is the global biosphere reacts to climate inputs in a symbiotic manner, which is an anathma to those who hate socialism, those who profess a sort of social darwinism. The second is that it presupposes that climate feedbacks are dampening . . . modulating, and most meteorologists work professionally with the math of chaos, or chaotic oscillators. It is a much different mindset of problem solving, or to use your metaphor, a different language.

What I hope to communicate here is difficult and I will do my best to communicate the biological and electrical complexities I am presenting.

[Mike Doran]

http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/vie ... &aid=14087

I think that there is a cycle of warming and cooling temperatures in the Atlantic. However conductivity is more than just temperature. But it includes temperature. For each degF there is about a one percent drop in resistance.

Not to go all over the place with this temperature discussion, but there is a type of circulation called a Walker circulation associated with ENSO. Larger circulations off east tropical Pacific is associated with El Nino, while smaller circulations are associated with La Nina. This, too, I look at from a conductivity standpoint. The warmer the tropical Pacific, the more conductive it becomes. Then, when there are lightning strikes in the Americas, and a displacement current is created therefrom, along relatively warmer tropical waters cloud microphysics are impacted farther from the coast. During La Nina, the impact is smaller as the ocean is more resistive. However, that displacement current follows pathways of least resistance, and so the current remains more local. That is why I think that La Nina associates with hurricanes and severe weather--the displacement currents that power cloud changes to make these events don't leak away far into a more conductive Pacific.

However, the conductivity discussion does not stop with SSTs. Decarbonation also is important, just as decarbonation is required for any tropical storm to form. Studies along the same lines as the Bates et al notion support this, and you can look at just about any measure of global CO2 and note how the global CO2 levels correlate with ENSO patterns. More specifically, the SOI index is about pressure differnces between Tahiti and Darwin, and when the ENSO pattern shifts to one side, outgassing or decarbonation from the surface low activity to that side is reflected in this SOI index.

So, again, I think aloud, why has the EPAC been so quiet? My view is that the ecologies of hydrate fields along the coasts have been impacted by extreme hydrology changes to the major river that feeds the ecologies that support the hydrate fields--namely a project called 'CAP', or the Colorado Arizona Project. You can search the term yourelf on the net. Similar active season then regional drought followed the changes to the Colorado in the early 1930s when the Colorado was diverted to build Hoover's dam . . . these changes ultimately resulted in a reduced ability for decarbonation, for surface lows to cause CO2 to move in the oceans and momentarily change conductivities that feedback favorable electrical conditions.

[clfenwi]

1605Z TWD

SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 11N122W. A SWIRL NEAR
12N125W MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE BANDING LAST NIGHT BUT THE
CONVECTION HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. IN THE
MEANTIME...A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR 10N120W IS BEGINNING SHOW SIGNS
OF BANDING. BUT...AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION IS NOTED
NEAR 11N115W ASSOCIATED WITH A RE-LOCATED TROPICAL WAVE. ALL OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND ADJUSTMENTS
TO GRAPHICS AND TEXT FORECASTS ARE LIKELY WHEN ONE OF THESE
CYCLONIC SWIRLS BECOMES THE DOMINATE FEATURE...POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM OUR MARINE FORECASTS.

sounds like 97E is coming soon...

[Mike Doran]

There have been 56k+ strikes the past 3 hours as seen at http://www.lightningstorm.com -- and south of the Texas blob in the EPAC ITCZ there is some good looking convection. However, this is not based on the conductivity of the EPAC but rather the power level of the displacement current proximate to it.