Uh oh....Check out the N. Central Caribbean....

[dixiebreeze]

Nice surge of convection this early morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[Scorpion]

Doesn't look like anything worth watching yet.

[dixiebreeze]

Another view:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just convection blowing up as energy is being flown northwestward on the northern side of the central American Anticyclone. Which is forecasted to slowly move into the gulf durning the next 24 to 36 hours. Nothing really yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well I was reading in a post that wxman57 posted I believe in the 93L thread but, I could be wrong either way.. the basics of it was watch out as this wave moves towards the western caribbean and the yuck as it could fire up again. Looks like this is already starting to happen.

You can see the position of the wave and the area of convection that is associated with it.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

[southerngale]

There's a tropical wave in that area, the old 93L I believe.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes here it is... however he does say on monday but, timing could be off.

I have seen similar situations of tw splitting with potentional develpments down the road. This northern section of the tw needs to be watched. Looks like the tw is moving WNW. Toward S Car area. Bad news if so.

Ding! Ding! Ding! You win the prize! Many people just follow the latest "blob", thinking that the strongest thunderstorms now have the greatest chance of development. But 93L is behaving precisely as expected (by me, anyway). Convection flared up as it passed the upper trof (and enhanced lifting) but is just about gone now. But the wave remains intact along about 70-71W this evening. It's quite hard to find, but it's there.

If I were to pick the system with the best chance of development over the next 3-5 days (94L, 95L, or poor old 93L), I'd pick what's left of 93L. Both 94L and 95L may be fighting a losing battle with shear in the coming days, but 93L will be moving into a prime area for development by Monday. Remember, easterly trade winds are very strong in the central Caribbean, too strong to allow for much convection with the passing wave. But once the wave nears the Yucatan, I think it'll flare up significantly and pose a much greater chance of developing than will 94L. 94L is leading the way, sacrificing itself so that 93L may develop in its wake, so to speak.

Now, that said, I don't think that the chances of 93L developing are great, but I would go as high as maybe 20-30%. Still, a better than not chance that nothing will come of it. But of all the disturbances out there, it's 93L that has me most concerned. By concerned, I mean that it may have a chance of developing, not that it might become a major hurricane, though. I think a Bret or Gert of 2005 track would be most likely.

[dixiebreeze]

It may be worth more than a passing glance

[Stormcenter]

It may be worth more than a passing glance

I agree.

[Stratosphere747]

*Little too much World Cup enjoyment*

57 mentioned 93 having better conditions, though I'd be surprised that the wave would have made it this far along..

If so, at that pace it would be over the Yucatan quite quickly...

[southerngale]

Strat...

The image is kinda big so I didn't post it, but just click on it here. It shows the wave in that area.

[CHRISTY]

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm....

Nice map. Does show the wave in the general area of this latest convection. Never thought it would had made it this far already.

Last thing I want to think about with the impending rainfall SE Texas could see over the next 3/4 days is a "true" tropical system making its way into the Gulf.

[southerngale]

Yeah, no kidding Stratosphere. I hope we don't get as much rain as they're forecasting. Pine Island Bayou just crested last week from the flooding rains before and on June 19th.

Anyway, this just came out in the 2:05 am tropical discussion:

HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL IS ALONG 84W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT.
LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN... SEE ABOVE. ALL CONVECTION NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE HAS NOW DISSIPATED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
20N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W.
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 14N65W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE W AT 20 KT. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Stratosphere747]

Very impressive SG, for this early in the morning....

Does peak the intrest level a bit, though it is zipping along at a good clip and *the wave* should be in the Yucatan soon.

Not far of 57's ideas though...

[SouthFloridawx]

Should get pretty interesting as this wave passes near the yuck in about 24-48 hours as there will be less upper level shear.

GFS 00Z 300mb hgt/winds hour 30
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

[canegrl04]

That disturbance along the Texas coast is even going to bring much needed rain to North Texas.We've got a good chance of it over the next 2 or 3 days

[Bane]

Looks like it'll move inland before it could ever have a shot at development.

[Opal storm]

Looks like it'll move inland before it could ever have a shot at development.

I agree.It could have a small window of opprotunity in the BOC before heading into Mexico.

[vbhoutex]

Hopefully, and I mean no disrespect to anyone, that wave will just continue on West into Mexico. If our forecasts pan out over the next few days, we won't need any rain in Texas coastal areas for quite a while!!!