African Dust Suppresing Tropical formation

[caneman]

This from the 8:00 discussion.

AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.


How long will it hang around. Chime in please. I know there have problems with the dust in years past but not sure if this much or this far into season. Post your thoughts.

[Derek Ortt]

well... dust really does not affect convective activity. However, the very dry air... now that will result in descending motion and kill off anything

[Jim Cantore]

well... dust really does not affect convective activity. However, the very dry air... now that will result in descending motion and kill off anything

just like last year, thats why the waves couldn't get going right away.

[abajan]

well... dust really does not affect convective activity. However, the very dry air... now that will result in descending motion and kill off anything

just like last year, thats why the waves couldn't get going right away.

And we all know how last year eventually turned out! I wouldn't give a second thought to the dust.

[Jim Cantore]

And once they get under the Bermuda high and start forming then we have a problem

[HouTXmetro]

And once they get under the Bermuda high and start forming then we have a problem

Right, less likely to recurve.

[Swimdude]

It seems like a bunch of things are suppressing development this year.

Dust
Shear
NHC obsession with pointless invests... [Kidding, kidding.]

[Jim Cantore]

here we go with the season cancel stuff

W-E H-A-V-E A L-O-N-G W-A-Y T-O G-O

[HurricaneHunter914]

A very long way and even though there is shear and dry air that doesn't mean this season is a bust.

[SouthFloridawx]

A very long way and even though there is shear and dry air that doesn't mean this season is a bust.

You have no idea how many people said season was over. There were also many threads started about that topic. I don't think this is a thread about the season being over. There is lot's of shear and dry air being caused by SAL but, as we have seen in the past conditions can change very quickly and should be always be watched.

[bvigal]

There is so much I will never understand about weather. I so admire those who complete all those difficult college courses to obtain a degree in meteorology! Wow!! So, I can only speak from the perspective of just a plain ole citizen observer/enthusiast, lacking much knowledge.

After 6 years in one place, paying close attention every day to both forecasts and actual conditions, it's becoming impossible for me to deny what I see. And that is countless real live examples of high-confidence forecasts with every meteorological indicator for plenty of rain, only to have dry haze and no precipitation. Time and time again, when we are supposed to get rain and don't, the one thing that is present in every case is haze. It can happen when other islands less than 100 miles from us have no haze, and it's literally "raining all around us". When there is no haze, we always get the rain that is forecast, at least SOME.

Over the last 3 years I've read everything I could find about African dust. In the last 6 months, I have been reading a lot more about volcano emissions, smog, suspended fine particles, etc. When we (rarely) get big ash from the volcano, that almost always causes thunderstorms, a perfect example being the burst that buzzed through here a few hours after the last dome collapse. It sounds like the effects of 'dust' on convection may very much depend upon how fine, how high, and what type of gases are included.

Is what we get SO2? (Sometimes we can smell the sulpher odor.) That gas is one monitored at Montserrat, so I know the volcano emits SO2. It sure seems as if there is some factor here that falls outside the usual weather equation... whatever is the truth, folks here who worry about stormy weather are beginning to feel quite fond of whatever causes our haze!

Sorry to drift off subject a bit here.

[Stormcenter]

This from the 8:00 discussion.

AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.


How long will it hang around. Chime in please. I know there have problems with the dust in years past but not sure if this much or this far into season. Post your thoughts.

Greats news for now but we all know it won't last.

[gatorcane]

This from the 8:00 discussion.

AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.


How long will it hang around. Chime in please. I know there have problems with the dust in years past but not sure if this much or this far into season. Post your thoughts.

Greats news for now but we all know it won't last.

I know we had a topic about this dust sometime in mid August of last year then suddenly a couple weeks later...boom

[SouthFloridawx]

This from the 8:00 discussion.

AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.


How long will it hang around. Chime in please. I know there have problems with the dust in years past but not sure if this much or this far into season. Post your thoughts.

Greats news for now but we all know it won't last.

I know we had a topic about this dust sometime in mid August of last year then suddenly a couple weeks later...boom

Personally I don't take it as good news. Normally the waves can develope and be pushed out into the atlantic by the westerlies. With the SAL creating mid-level dryness and not allowing the waves to pop until they get into the caribbean may be a bad thing. I believe we saw this several times last year with the waves coming off of Africa.