Discussions by Avila

[bigmoney755]

Why are Avila's discussion so short? I remember all of last year he had the shortest discussions. I always look forward to discussions from Stewart. They are 10 x better than Avila's.

[HURAKAN]

Sorry, but I have to disagree. There's no need to make a long discussion in the TWO when there is nothing with a chance to develop.

[Derek Ortt]

There is no need to write something very long, when a mere few sentences can state the same thing. That is why I perfer Avila's discussions (and the fact that mine are also usually short also is part of the reason I perfer short ones)

[NONAME]

I like your's Derek there pretty good i think you give a good analyst of the tropics when it has a chance to develop.

[TS Zack]

I like Stewart's because he doesn't just tell you it isn't or is going to develop. He tells you why it will occur. Anybody can look at a few maps and say it won't develop but to give reasoning in the discussions makes a pro.

[bigmoney755]

Sorry, but I have to disagree. There's no need to make a long discussion in the TWO when there is nothing with a chance to develop.

I'm talking about all of last year. Especially in Katrina, Wilma, Rita, and Dennis. His discussion were just horrible.

[Aquawind]

Hey now.. no dissin here..

They are indiviuals..hence the styles vary. Some just like to elaborate more. Stacey is one of those but the others do as well just not as often. Avila has the facts straight though no doubt. He just gets to the point without the fun stuff many of the weather fans like.. imo

[mf_dolphin]

When Avila writes a long discussion then you'd better pay attention.

[OuterBanker]

I agree. Avila has always been a bit curt. Stacy Stewart on the other hand is the complete opposite. I think the main difference is that Stacy is not afraid to give his opinion on things. Something all the others seem to hold back on which I think is a shame. I don't know whether it's fear of being wrong or reliance on modeling that is at the root of it, it just seems most NHC forecasters no longer give a "gut" feeling anymore. Maybe it's just safer to blame error on a computer program than to admit to "human" error. Don't get me wrong, I think that computer modeling is a wonderful useful tool. But I would much rather base my decision on an experienced meteorologist opinion than a computer program. Or maybe I'm just getting old

[fci]

I agree. Avila has always been a bit curt. Stacy Stewart on the other hand is the complete opposite. I think the main difference is that Stacy is not afraid to give his opinion on things. Something all the others seem to hold back on which I think is a shame. I don't know whether it's fear of being wrong or reliance on modeling that is at the root of it, it just seems most NHC forecasters no longer give a "gut" feeling anymore. Maybe it's just safer to blame error on a computer program than to admit to "human" error. Don't get me wrong, I think that computer modeling is a wonderful useful tool. But I would much rather base my decision on an experienced meteorologist opinion than a computer program. Or maybe I'm just getting old

I'm with you.
One of the best tools, besides S2K; is the discussion from the Pros themselves and when they simply put in a line of two we can feel a bit cheated.
For instance, NWS Melbourne seems to have more interesting AFD's than Miami.
Stewart is good to read because he tosses in more opinion than others.
So what if he ends up wrong, big deal!

(fci climbs onto the soapbox...)

BTW, to be critical of a forecaster doesn't always have to be interpreted as "dissing".
Can't we be honest without having to worry about being so politically correct all the time?

(fci climbs back off the soapbox......)

[artist]

some people enjoy writing while others don't - thus the flair, I think.

[Cyclenall]

There is no need to write something very long, when a mere few sentences can state the same thing. That is why I perfer Avila's discussions (and the fact that mine are also usually short also is part of the reason I perfer short ones)

Well that should only be if nothing much is happening in the tropics. If there is something like Hurricane Wilma when she was at peak, they should write very long discussions about everything and make it very formal. I would enjoy that a lot.

[x-y-no]

As time has gone by, I've come to appreciate Avila's succinct style more and more. But I'll agree Stewart is often a more entertaining read.


I'm looking forward to reading that Cangialosi guy, though.

[Ziplock]

When Avila makes mention of a particular model, it has more significance, at least in my interpretation of his Discussions, since he is so spare with his language.

Last year, in the 5:00 PM (forcast) Discussion on Category One Katrina (approaching S florida from the Atlantic), Avila appended a last sentence, "The GFDL has been showing a SW on recent run(s). I didn't save the discussion, and I'm quoting from memory.

Avila had been liking the GFDL's performance in 2004 (if my memory is still in service) and in 2005. The fact that he added this onto the END of the discussion/forcast, had a lot of significance for me...I'd been thinking SW, SW, and here he was, with good evidence to back up the prediction...and all those people in South Florida who cried, "Foul! nobody even warned us it could come this way" didn't read the 5:00PM, and didn't have the experience we Storm2k'ers have in interpreting the information or data that is available.

As you may remember, Katrina took that SW turn and came ashore as a strenghthening Cat 1 and struck on the far south side of the cone of terror. The Southern eyewall had the most intense winds and also the heaviest rains, dumping near 20 inches right on top of my house. My GRLevel3 radar was up and running, and I could track ikndividual cells as they blasted right over my head. Off topic a bit, but the point being, Avila felt strongly enough about the GFDL run to include it in his discussion.

Like all human endeavors, with our own complexity, the ability to "read between the lines" is essential. Even in fields that are evidence based, hard science, the human element can never be excluded, and therefore, our individual abilities to interpret the information, come into play.

I was NOT caught offguard, thanks to all I have learned here, and also for closely reading Avila's writing.

Just my TWO (get it?) sense. Sorry, I couldn't resist.
Zip

[fci]

Ziplock:
Your differing opinion is what helps make this board click.
There should always be room for us to state what we feel and why.

I must admit that the SW turn of Katrina caught me by surprise, a pleasant one I must add; since I live in Palm Beach county and it ended up being a non-event for us.

Nice "TWO" pun!!

[Derek Ortt]

may have to wait a while to read TC discussions from Cang, he's not yet a hurricane specialist

As for if discussions should be long when there is a storm, I would say the exact opposite. A discussion should just state the facts in a very succinct manner, and spare the fluff. Just state your forecast reasoning and thats that. A storm like Wilma speaks for itself

[bigmoney755]

A discussion should just state the facts in a very succinct manner, and spare the fluff. Just state your forecast reasoning and thats that. A storm like Wilma speaks for itself

So what do you think of Stacy Stewarts discussions?

[Thunder44]

may have to wait a while to read TC discussions from Cang, he's not yet a hurricane specialist

As for if discussions should be long when there is a storm, I would say the exact opposite. A discussion should just state the facts in a very succinct manner, and spare the fluff. Just state your forecast reasoning and thats that. A storm like Wilma speaks for itself

I actually like the "fluff". Usually when I read Avila discussions, I don't get a full understanding behind his forecast reasoning and leaves open questions to me. If his discussions are longer, it's usually that he spends more time talking about what this model says and that one says. As if he is forecasting by the model, although I'm sure he really isn't. I've find Stewart and Beven discussions much more informative.

[Derek Ortt]

I perfer Avila's

[The RAT]

I know Avila and he is not a man of many words, but when he speaks you understand