Low Pressure in NW Gulf, Thoughts?

[HouTXmetro]

I know most mets forecasted this low to originally not make from Texas to the GOM. Now that the Low is well into the Gulf, what are your thoughts? Why or Why not, does it have little chance at development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

I know most mets forecasted this low to originally not make from Texas to the GOM. Now that the Low is well into the Gulf, what are your thoughts? Why or Why not, does it have little chance at development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Ummmm....at least 20 - 30 kts of shear maybe?

[HouTXmetro]

I know most mets forecasted this low to originally not make from Texas to the GOM. Now that the Low is well into the Gulf, what are your thoughts? Why or Why not, does it have little chance at development?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Ummmm....at least 20 - 30 kts of shear maybe?

Thanks, I did not know that. Is it still forecasted to move SW into North Eastern Mexico?

[Frank P]

I'm finding the little blow of convection south of the AL coast a little interesting this afternoon.... isn't this the area that the GFS was going to drop da bomb???? could it be a bomb a brewing? GFS..... I think not, but still a nice little blob that causing some home brewing perhaps in the back yard...

[drezee]

The little piece S of Mobile is starting to remind me of TS Beryl from 1994. It was a "pop-up" homebrew as well.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

One of our mets said this swirl in the GOM is an area we should watch for TD formation. It looks kinda promising but right now its just a swirl.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

One of our mets said this swirl in the GOM is an area we should watch for TD formation. It looks kinda promising but right now its just a swirl.

I heard there was a surface reflection while the low was over Texas, however the mets also said something about the low weakening when over water.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't say it is well into the GOM, in fact it is on land in Matagorda County. It's pretty apparent on radar and that's where the NWS Houston placed it in their PM discussion. The low is now an open trough and is forcasted to move SW as a ridge builds in. I haven't seen any pro mets actually call for development - in fact several have said quite the opposite.

Here is what Jeff said about it yesterday:
"As far as the upper low goes...it appears to be slightly warm core now, but is forecast to weaken as it shifts southward into the Gulf later Thursday. In fact the low really weakens by Friday and is barely notice in the models anymore as upper ridging builds southward over the low. There will be no tropical development."

Source: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=160

[drezee]

The little piece S of Mobile is starting to remind me of TS Beryl from 1994. It was a "pop-up" homebrew as well.

ZCZC MIAWRKAP3 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 1994

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...
...MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT, SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A POORLY DEFINED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND DIFFUSE. HOWEVER, AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT IS NOW AFFECTING THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY TURN TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN
SQUALLS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO LAND.

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SEVERAL WATER SPOUTS
IN THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO TODAY
AND TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT FROM SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. SEE LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS IN YOUR AREA.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1012
MB...29.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...29.5 N... 87.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

MAYFIELD

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.

[White Cap]

I didn't realize when I was reading the TWS above that it was an old 1994 post and I was started to freak out a bit...saying "What...a depression in the Gulf...and nothing is even on the news!!" I even plotted it on my hurricane map..87.5 / 29.5! I was ready to send an email out to the office alerting them...oh my gosh...I am so glad I reread it and saw the date!

[HouTXmetro]

:( I didn't realize when I was reading the TWS above that it was an old 1994 post and I was started to freak out a bit...saying "What...a depression in the Gulf...and nothing is even on the news!!" I even plotted it on my hurricane map..87.5 / 29.5! I was ready to send an email out to the office alerting them...oh my gosh...I am so glad I reread it and saw the date!

LOL, it got me at first also.

[White Cap]

Glad I am not the only one. That would have been quite embarrassing if I had told everyone in the office that there is a depression in the Gulf! They would have never believed me again!

[HurricaneHunter914]

I almost beleived it too, but I thought drezee was doing that to scare us and I was about to report hime.

[stormtruth]

:lol: Glad I am not the only one. That would have been quite embarrassing if I had told everyone in the office that there is a depression in the Gulf! They would have never believed me again!

Especially if you had to say ooops that was actually a depression from 12 years ago I was looking at.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Okay guys we had our fun, but lets get back on topic.

[White Cap]

Ok what is the topic? Is something about to develop in the Gulf?

[HurricaneHunter914]

No but there is a low in the Gulf right now that looks like its trying to organize.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

This swirl that is in the Gulf is the topic of this thread.

[White Cap]

What are the chances of any development? Any shear?

[no advance]

So here we are again watching an ULL When will the trend be broken?