10AM Discussion NHC

[wrkh99]

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 12, 2003



with several little cloud swirls prancing about...it is still
difficult to pinpoint a center from either recon or satellite
data...but the cyclone overall appears to be basically on track.
There is some indication that the forward speed is beginning to
slow...and the initial motion is estimated to be 310/10. Convection
remains restricted to the northeast quadrant due to southwesterly
shear...although in the past few hours some has developed closer to
the circulation center. Aircraft reports of 55 kt winds at 1000 ft
northeast of the center indicate that the intensity remains near 45
kt.
There is no significant change to the official forecast or synoptic
reasoning. Claudette is already west of the trough axis in the
northern Gulf of Mexico...and with mid-level northeasterly flow
forecast to develop from Louisiana westward...the current
northwestward track should begin to Bend to the west within 36
hours. The upper-level flow is expected to remain southwesterly
for the next couple of days...which would tend to weaken the
overall steering current. Thus a slower motion is expected after
the storm turns to the west.
The upper-lever southwesterlies should also maintain Claudette in a
shearing flow that should limit intensification. In addition...
there is not a lot of deep warm water in the western Gulf at this
time. This would also tend to limit the intensification of a
slow-moving system. One remaining concern is that the upper-level
southwesterlies could relax some after 48 hours and provide more of
an opportunity for strengthening just prior to landfall.
Special note...although the official forecast appears to no longer
call for Claudette to become a hurricane...this is because the 72
hour forecast point is inland. Claudette is still expected to be
at or near hurricane strength at the time of landfall.
Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/1500z 24.1n 91.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 13/0000z 24.8n 92.2w 45 kt
24hr VT 13/1200z 25.5n 93.3w 45 kt
36hr VT 14/0000z 25.8n 94.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 14/1200z 26.0n 95.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 15/1200z 26.0n 98.0w 60 kt...inland
96hr VT 16/1200z 26.0n 100.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 17/1200z 25.5n 102.5w 20 kt...dissipating inland