Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:59 pm

First I want to credit AirforceMet who pointed this out. You can clearly see the low level center moving west while the Mid level center is moving Southwest. I just wanted to start a new thread where everyone could see what AirforceMet pointed out, before it gets buried. Also credit AJC3.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:01 pm

AJC3 also had pointed it out as a possibility.

mobilebay · #3 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:03 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:AJC3 also had pointed it out as a possibility.

I edited to credit him.

Normandy · #4 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:03 pm

Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

Recurve · #5 Postby **Recurve** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:03 pm

The latest discussion mentions a midlevel spin and the surface at low at different positions, as you all know by now. Anyone care to chime in with analysis -- is Chris getting torn apart or only wobbling slightly?

#6 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:04 pm

Normandy wrote:Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

actually that could be MUCH better for him

mobilebay · #7 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:04 pm

Pro mets. Is northwesterly shear causing this?

Normandy · #8 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:04 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

actually that could be MUCH better for him

Elaborate please.

mobilebay · #9 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:05 pm

Normandy wrote:Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

Franklin never had Chris no where near this intensity.

Extremeweatherguy · #10 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:07 pm

Normandy wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:
Normandy wrote:Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

actually that could be MUCH better for him

Elaborate please.

The LLC could enter a better environment and reform convection around the center (a.k.a. Alberto).

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:07 pm

mobilebay wrote:
Normandy wrote:Heh go figure.
Franklin was right (I think he was the one who forecasted dissipation intially) was right after all....

Decoupling = not good for Chris

Franklin never had Chris no where near this intensity.

yeah, not by a long shot.

cheezyWXguy · #12 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:08 pm

Yeah..the LLC has a better chance of developing than the MLC, although the MLC moving to the south could form into Debby...Couldnt it?

#13 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:09 pm

mobilebay wrote:Pro mets. Is northwesterly shear causing this?

yes.

Normandy · #14 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:11 pm

Well how is the LLC moving into a more favorable environment? ITs only getting closer to the ULL and the NW shear is still there.

Like I said, this = bad for Chris

mobilebay · #15 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:12 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:
mobilebay wrote:Pro mets. Is northwesterly shear causing this?
yes.

Thanks. It just looks to me that the outflow is pretty good. I don't see any high cloud fragments blowing by or anything. Thanks for your response. Makes sence now!

#16 Postby **KFDM Meteorologist** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:12 pm

Look at it close on Satellite

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:12 pm

wind shear where the LLC is going is very low right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

#18 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:13 pm

It appears that the NW shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC this evening. Even makes it look like Chris is moving SW when in acuality it is probably a temporary unstacking of the centers. This will probably bring Chris a little closer to PR and Hispaniola once the shear abates later tonight, but overall I think it is too early to rally for his death as some are doing.

As much I would like to see Chris do a Debby from 2000, I just don't see it happening. The ULLs are still where they are expected to be and the ridge is as strong as ever.

Stormavoider · #19 Postby **Stormavoider** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:13 pm

If it looses its convection, it will be left alone in a real dry environment.

Extremeweatherguy · #20 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:14 pm

vbhoutex wrote:It appears that the NW shear is decoupling the MLC and LLC this evening. Even makes it look like Chris is moving SW when in acuality it is probably a temporary unstacking of the centers. This will probably bring Chris a little closer to PR and Hispaniola once the shear abates later tonight, but overall I think it is too early to rally for his death as some are doing.

As much I would like to see Chris do a Debby from 2000, I just don't see it happening. The ULLs are still where they are expected to be and the ridge is as strong as ever.

it actually looks like the LLC is at or north of the current forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go back to the FL straits forecast if Chris gets reorganized.

Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center

Low level center is decoupling the Mid level center

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