will a weak el nino form due to the SOI??
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willjnewton
will a weak el nino form due to the SOI??
I need someones official answer here and do it right please will a weak el nino form due to this impressive SOI or will the eastern pacific remain neutral???and how will that have an effect on tropical activity for the remainder of this 2006 hurricane season???thankyou for your responses
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MiamiensisWx
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cheezyWXguy
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willjnewton
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AussieMark
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this was the July 27 ENSO wrapup by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is still hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. In addition, the Trade Winds have been weaker than average across much of the Pacific during July, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, with the exception of the far eastern Pacific, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface. Therefore, there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of July showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. A sustained warming beginning at this time of year would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
In Brief
* Equatorial Pacific SST values remain a little above average, and have recently increased in the far eastern Pacific.
* The latest map of weekly subsurface temperatures shows weak warm temperature anomalies above the level of the thermocline across the equatorial Pacific.
* The SOI has a current (24th July) 30-day value of −10.
* The Trade Winds have generally been slightly enhanced in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific during late June to mid-July, and slightly weaker in the far western equatorial Pacific.
* Cloudiness near the dateline along the equator has been largely suppressed during July. Cloudiness along the equator is currently close to average.
* Most computer models predict neutral ENSO conditions during the southern spring and summer.
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is still hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. In addition, the Trade Winds have been weaker than average across much of the Pacific during July, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, with the exception of the far eastern Pacific, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface. Therefore, there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of July showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. A sustained warming beginning at this time of year would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
In Brief
* Equatorial Pacific SST values remain a little above average, and have recently increased in the far eastern Pacific.
* The latest map of weekly subsurface temperatures shows weak warm temperature anomalies above the level of the thermocline across the equatorial Pacific.
* The SOI has a current (24th July) 30-day value of −10.
* The Trade Winds have generally been slightly enhanced in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific during late June to mid-July, and slightly weaker in the far western equatorial Pacific.
* Cloudiness near the dateline along the equator has been largely suppressed during July. Cloudiness along the equator is currently close to average.
* Most computer models predict neutral ENSO conditions during the southern spring and summer.
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Mac
willjnewton wrote:I am sorry if I seem impatient but can someone please tell me will this be a active hurricane season or not???and what is your reasoning behind it???
There is no crystal ball. It's all about atmospheric dynamics. The best anybody can do is watch as the pieces of the puzzle come together and make PREDICTIONS based upon PROBABILITIES.
Only God knows for sure.
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willjnewton
but what am I saying is based on the forecast or based on the CONDITIONS does everything or MOST things look favorable for a above average hurricane season??? and as of right now is everything getting more favorable for tropical development???, like is the dry air and shear relaxing??? someone tell me please thankyou
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Mac
Conditions always tend to become more favorable for development this time of year. The Atlantic air is becoming more humid (moist), which favors development. The SSTs favor development. Presently, the shear does not favor development. However, that can change rather quickly. Watch the jet stream. If it starts tracking more northerly across the U.S. then development would be much more favorable.
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willjnewton
is the jetstream as of right now tracking more northerly across the u.s.??? and is the high pressure along the east coast weaker??? and is every thing looking favorable right now than the last two weeks and does the latest global forecast models indicate anything tropical development across the atlantic???
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Mac
If we truly are going in to an El Nino phase, you would typically see the jet stream making a dip toward the equator in the eastern Pacific (and that is currently happening). If you look at a jet stream map, you'll notice that the jet stream has been dipping toward the equator off the California coast, then coming back up north and tracking across the continental U.S. El Nino is also thought to lead to above average upper level wind shear (and shear has, in fact, been persistent). In El Nino conditions, hurricane activity is generally decreased in the North Atlantic and increased in the Pacific.
Now, whether the El Nino bears out--and how strong it will be--remains to be seen. So nobody is going to be able to answer how the next two months (or even the next two weeks) are going to pan out for hurricane activity.
Edited to add: Watch the jet stream off the California coast. If it starts taking a more northerly track across the U.S. rather than dipping toward the equator off the California coast, I would expect conditions may become more favorable in the upper atmosphere. Of course, that's an amateur's opinion based upon my own observations.
Now, whether the El Nino bears out--and how strong it will be--remains to be seen. So nobody is going to be able to answer how the next two months (or even the next two weeks) are going to pan out for hurricane activity.
Edited to add: Watch the jet stream off the California coast. If it starts taking a more northerly track across the U.S. rather than dipping toward the equator off the California coast, I would expect conditions may become more favorable in the upper atmosphere. Of course, that's an amateur's opinion based upon my own observations.
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Stormavoider
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willjnewton
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rainstorm
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willjnewton
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Derek Ortt
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willjnewton wrote:do you guys really mean that the jetstream is along the equator off the california coast and that a el nino is forming??DAGBLASTED because I hate death and destruction I mean I just love storms and hurricanes though GET MY POINT???
All of us feel the same way about the storms.
Derek just answered your question I believe.
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willjnewton
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