If nuetral conditions then why all the shear in Atlantic

[boca]

I'm hearing everyone say neutral conditions are present than why is their so much shear and unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic. Now that its August what is the excuse,its no longer just the beginning of the season were into the meat and potatos of the season now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think just like hurricanetrack said on the SOI thread that this year is acting alot like a El nino year. Because of the neg numbers. Overall I think a el nino will really form later this year. I expect maybe 3 or 4 hurricanes but I think my 15 is in trouble.

[Normandy]

I think you all are gonna pray shear is here in September/October.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not me...

[boca]

I think here in Florida if this turns out to be an EL Nino year then our winter time rainfall will exceed our summer rainfall which currently is down 11".

[Stormavoider]

It's Global cooling! We are destroying the climate by putting-out forest fires and not compensating with sooty factory emissions.

[Cyclenall]

I'm hearing everyone say neutral conditions are present than why is their so much shear and unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic. Now that its August what is the excuse,its no longer just the beginning of the season were into the meat and potatos of the season now.

I have a shear map from Hurricane Katrina's time and this is how much shear was in the Atlantic at the time:

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archi ... -large.gif

Yeah.... look at that.

[Normandy]

Im telling you.
People won't be happy until a Cat5 forms in the gulf.
If not, the season is a dud.

[boca]

Cyclenall good post didn't know that and I don't think the seasons a dude I'm wondering why the shear is still as strong as it was in June. I've heard the neg SOI which can cause EL Nino like symptoms. I have to read up on SOI since I know nothing about it.

[Cyclenall]

Cyclenall good post didn't know that and I don't think the seasons a dude I'm wondering why the shear is still as strong as it was in June. I've heard the neg SOI which can cause EL Nino like symptoms. I have to read up on SOI since I know nothing about it.

I don't know why the shear is still strong, but IMO we are normal currently when it comes to shear. The shear map I posted was from 2005 and it looks like there was way more shear then right now. I found it today.

[EDR1222]

I didn't think it was that uncommon to have strong wind shear through July and early August, even during neutral years. Usually it begins to calm down a bit by the middle of August if I am not mistaken. Generally La-Nina conditions lead to longer periods of light shear in the Atlantic basin I believe.

[wxmann_91]

I'm hearing everyone say neutral conditions are present than why is their so much shear and unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic. Now that its August what is the excuse,its no longer just the beginning of the season were into the meat and potatos of the season now.

I have a shear map from Hurricane Katrina's time and this is how much shear was in the Atlantic at the time:

Link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/archi ... -large.gif

Yeah.... look at that.

Here's the thing though, Katrina was so large that much of the shear in the Caribbean, along with some in the western Atlantic and EPAC, was associated with it. We all know the eastern Atlantic was unfavorable during much of the year.

The shear this year has been associated with TUTT's. This year the TUTT's have been excessively dominating. (This is NOT what usually happens with El Nino's, BTW, IIRC.) I think we're just in a stagnant pattern in which TUTT's pinch off from the stronger mid level flow to the north, and then stay and meander for weeks on end. Just imagine how an oxbow lake forms.

[Cyclenall]

Here's the thing though, Katrina was so large that much of the shear in the Caribbean, along with some in the western Atlantic and EPAC, was associated with it. We all know the eastern Atlantic was unfavorable during much of the year.

So your saying all/most of that shear in the Atlantic displayed on that map was caused from Katrina? If so, then that is a massive area of shear Katrina caused. I guess I need a map when no large storms were occurring in 2005.

[clfenwi]

It is worth remembering that it was shear from an upper level trough that killed off Tropical Depression 10 last year ***.

Here is what the average shear is in each of the sub-basins relative to climatological norm:

A little bit above normal in the tropical Atlantic(area east of 60° W and south of 20° http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatshr.gif

Below normal in the western Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/wcashr.gif

Below normal in the eastern Caribbean:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/ecashr.gif

Below normal in the Gulf:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/gmxshr.gif

Ever so slightly above normal off the east coast:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/ecoshr.gif

And below normal in the sub-tropical Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/satshr.gif

Looking at the image from last year ( http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/shear2005.gif ), I would estimate that average shear in the tropical Atlantic is about 5 knots higher than it was at this time last year.

*** And the demise of TD10 started a round of skepticism about the prospects for the balance of the season:

"If you think about it, the past three/four weeks the entire Atlantic Ocean has been hostile for tropical development. I'm a little surprised by this considering the peak of hurricane season is less than a month away. What gives? What's causing these atmospheric problems? "

"It's very possible, in reference to the initial comment here, that the season will remain unfavorable for the development of "healthy" tropical cyclones through the remainder of the season. Considering that Franklin, Harvey and Irene were all "unhealthy" (or weak) tropical storms, this seems to possibly be the case."

"This year reminds me of an El Nino year, no letup of shear. Or this active cycle might be coming to an end with increasing shear???"

" I'm getting the feeling that the 2005 season is winding down"

There was though, one comment that was exceptionally on the mark:

"I think in a couple of weeks we will be drinking tons of coffee and praying a lot." - written Aug 15 2005

[vacanechaser]

i think the shear is more a product of the upper lows at this point... i could be wrong, but there seems to be a good deal of them at any given point, and they are very large as of late.... i think it is about to turn around though... looks like a season that will be more typical in time frame...

JMO

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

As one local OCM said last night - last year's total was 8/3/2, and, as of the same date this year, it's 3/0/0, so, something is making a difference, that's for sure...

Frank

[MiamiensisWx]

As one local OCM said last night - last year's total was 8/3/2, and, as of the same date this year, it's 3/0/0, so, something is making a difference, that's for sure...

Frank

Yes, something is making a difference. 2005 was an anomalous year in many respects and synoptic factors, including unusually lower (more favorable) pressures in the Caribbean and Atlantic Basin/Gulf of Mexico, unusual extensive propagation of African waves (allowing more chances for development due to greater quantity of well-organized waves), a weaker Bermuda-Azores High resulting in somewhat lower shear to some degree, and other factors. You can't expect those and other anomalous factors present in 2005 to be the norm in many years. This year can't be compared to 2005. Period. 2005 was THE epitome of an anomaly.

[Steve]

>>Cyclenall good post didn't know that and I don't think the seasons a dude

It's a chick for sure.

Steve

[x-y-no]

>>Cyclenall good post didn't know that and I don't think the seasons a dude

It's a chick for sure.

Steve

[Jim Cantore]

Im telling you.
People won't be happy until a Cat5 forms in the gulf.
If not, the season is a dud.

Then they'll be praying that something kills it