Would it be unprecedented to end up with 1 or 2 hurricanes?

[tgenius]

Yes, I know its only August 7th, but imagine the bizarro world polar opposite to last year's storm count... wouldn't it be wild?

[AussieMark]

despite no hurricanes yet

2001 never got the first 1 till early September

and ended the year with 9

[Frank2]

I thought of that last week - that would be something. It's still too early to know for sure, but, it is something to think about, especially since last years totals at this time, were almost equal to an entire hurricane season!

There have been years where there only one or two:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1919.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1977.asp

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at1983.asp

The 1977 and 1983 seasons were El Nino years, but, some believe the 1919 season was affected by more than one large volcanic eruption in 1918...

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey, anything can happen, never know...

[Downdraft]

No it wouldn't be unprecedented and no it won't happen this year either.

[CrazyC83]

1914 was hurricane-free...

[george_r_1961]

1914 was hurricane-free...

In 1914 there was no sattelites. Quite possible there were hurricanes just none close enough to land to be detected.

[tgenius]

1914 was hurricane-free...

But i'd venture to say that there probably was but without radar/satellite imagery its tough to say.

[vacanechaser]

1914 was hurricane-free...

But i'd venture to say that there probably was but without radar/satellite imagery its tough to say.

correct, and to say the other early years had one or two is stretching it as well.... those are just what is known to have existed...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fci]

No it wouldn't be unprecedented and no it won't happen this year either.

And you draw your definitive conclusion from?

[SootyTern]

It's certainly possible to have a slow year after some bad ones; if I remember right 1997 was pretty quiet but surrounded by years like 95,96, 98 and 99 which were very active. It is also WAAAY too soon to write 2006 off on Aug 7th!

[Deputy Van Halen]

The 1977 and 1983 seasons were El Nino years, but, some believe the 1919 season was affected by more than one large volcanic eruption in 1918...

If this season were a repeat of 1977 or 1983, us folks near Houston wouldn't rest easy. 1983 was the year of the last major direct strike (Alicia). The big storm of 1977 was Anita, which developed around the same unusual area as Alicia (northern Gulf) but luckily executed the even more unusual manuever of going SOUTH, into Mexico.

[EDR1222]

I remember the all the reports coming out of Texas. 1983 was an extremely slow year overall, but don't tell that to the people of Texas. Alicia caused some major problems and extensive damage.

There is a long way to go this year!

[bob rulz]

I just have one thing to say:

1992 season: 4 hurricanes
And what was one of those hurricanes?
Hurricane Andrew.

So even if there's just 2 hurricanes, you never know if 1 of those hurricanes will turn into the next Andrew or Katrina.

[richtrav]

Hmm, 1919 was a horrible year for the central Texas coast, that's when THE storm hit Corpus Christi. Like people say it only takes one.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/resear ... tory/1919/

[AussieMark]

even some active years didn't have any hurricanes by this point in time or had their first around this time

1964: Cleo became a hurricane on August 21 (season ended with 7)
1969: Blanche became a hurricane on August 11 (season ended with 12)
1980: Allen became a hurricane August 3 (season ended with 9)
1981: Dennis became a hurricane on August 20 (season ended with 7)
1998: Bonnie became a Hurricane on August 22 (season ended with 10)
1999: Bret became a hurricane on August 21 (season ended with 8)
2000: Alberto became a hurricane on August 6 (season ended with 8)
2001: Erin became a hurricane on September 9 (season ended with 9)
2004: Alex became a hurricane on August 3 (season ended with 9)

[AussieMark]

1914 was hurricane-free...

But i'd venture to say that there probably was but without radar/satellite imagery its tough to say.

correct, and to say the other early years had one or two is stretching it as well.... those are just what is known to have existed...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

1983 and 1997 only had 3 and it took major el nino events to do that