Bahamas Wave

[Stormavoider]

This wave has been discussed in the "Lesser Antilles wave" thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87876

I thought I'd post a new topic since the wave has moved.
I know development is not expected. It's real close to the US and convection is firing up. There may be some turning or I may be seeing things again.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Rainy day coming for FL tommorow...Thats about it

[jusforsean]

oh bother....said pooh

[tailgater]

Maybe this thread should be called Chris's Remnants round two. Stands about as good a chance of developing, probably better, should flare up nicely today.

[Stormavoider]

As more visibles come in, I'm more convinced there is rotation at about 23.5N 73W.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[TheEuropean]

Maybe this thread should be called Chris's Remnants round two. Stands about as good a chance of developing, probably better, should flare up nicely today.

No, this system is not related to the remnants of "Chris", it's a new system, known here before as caribbean wave (could someone close the other thread, please?).

[jasons2k]

I think he just meant this has a good of a chance of developing as Chris' remnants - not that THIS was somehow a remnant of Chris.

[tailgater]

Maybe this thread should be called Chris's Remnants round two. Stands about as good a chance of developing, probably better, should flare up nicely today.

No, this system is not related to the remnants of "Chris", it's a new system, known here before as caribbean wave (could someone close the other thread, please?).

I know this isn't part of what Chris or what is left of it, is along Texas coast. I should have worded it differently, it is just that this wave reminds me of Chris as it is in almost the exact same location and should ride along the upper Cuba coast.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Don't see the low level circ on this. Looks like convergence, with a hint of MLC

[TheEuropean]

I know this isn't part of what Chris or what is left of it, is along Texas coast. I should have worded it differently, it is just that this wave reminds me of Chris as it is in almost the exact same location and should ride along the upper Cuba coast.

Ok, sorry, I see what you mean.

[tailgater]

I know this isn't part of what Chris or what is left of it, is along Texas coast. I should have worded it differently, it is just that this wave reminds me of Chris as it is in almost the exact same location and should ride along the upper Cuba coast.

Ok, sorry, I see what you mean.

No problem, like I said I should have worded it differently. While we have you reading on this thread though, could you tell me why you think that the Upper level winds seem to so hostile this year with a near neutral ENSO?
Thanks in advance

[tgenius]

So is this wave going to bring rain for Miami tommorow? My shutters are beginning to get installed today so it would be nice to know.

[Brent]

So is this wave going to bring rain for Miami tommorow? My shutters are beginning to get installed today so it would be nice to know.

Yep. 60% chance tomorrow vs. 20% today.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... 1&map.y=79

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 080735
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND
CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA WHICH SHOWS PWATS AT FLL AND MIA DOWN TO
THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE AND FALLING. SO WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...AM EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20 POPS EVERYWHERE
TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A MARKED TRANSITION IN AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. GFS
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS MOIST SURGE WILL BE BROUGHT ON BY TWO
FACTORS...ONE BEING THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO
THE GULF WITH SOUTH FL BECOMING POSITIONED ON ITS MOIST/EAST SIDE...AND
THE OTHER BEING THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS NOW
ALIGNED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA AT AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE SE
COAST...EXPOSED TO THE SE FLOW. HOWEVER...LAND COOLING AFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP GULF COASTAL AND INTERIOR AREAS DRY
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT MINIMAL POPS THERE. COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS...BUT STILL THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE
LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD RESULT IN "LOUD" THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY...SO INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP STORMS OF THE ORDINARY VARIETY
ON WEDNESDAY...UNLESS THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS VERY DRY
AIR ALIGNED ALONG 24 NORTH LATITUDE...WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES...RATHER REMARKABLE FOR AUGUST. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE WEEK. FOLLOWED GFS MOS POPS CLOSELY
THU-SUN WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE COAST AND CHANCE
POPS INTERIOR.

GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SENDS A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND EVEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRETTY AMAZING FOR
AUGUST. TROPICS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS WELL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 080735
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
THE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND
CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA WHICH SHOWS PWATS AT FLL AND MIA DOWN TO
THE 1.5-1.7 INCH RANGE AND FALLING. SO WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...AM EXPECTING NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH 20 POPS EVERYWHERE
TODAY.

TONIGHT WILL SEE A MARKED TRANSITION IN AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. GFS
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS MOIST SURGE WILL BE BROUGHT ON BY TWO
FACTORS...ONE BEING THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO
THE GULF WITH SOUTH FL BECOMING POSITIONED ON ITS MOIST/EAST SIDE...AND
THE OTHER BEING THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH IS NOW
ALIGNED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AREA AT AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE SE
COAST...EXPOSED TO THE SE FLOW. HOWEVER...LAND COOLING AFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP GULF COASTAL AND INTERIOR AREAS DRY
OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT MINIMAL POPS THERE. COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS...BUT STILL THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER COLD CORE
LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD RESULT IN "LOUD" THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN EXTENT OF TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY...SO INHERITED LIKELY POPS
STILL LOOK GOOD EVERYWHERE. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD KEEP STORMS OF THE ORDINARY VARIETY
ON WEDNESDAY...UNLESS THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSER TO THE AREA WHICH
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEEPEST MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. GFS SHOWS VERY DRY
AIR ALIGNED ALONG 24 NORTH LATITUDE...WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES...RATHER REMARKABLE FOR AUGUST. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE WEEK. FOLLOWED GFS MOS POPS CLOSELY
THU-SUN WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THE COAST AND CHANCE
POPS INTERIOR.

GFS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND SENDS A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND EVEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PRETTY AMAZING FOR
AUGUST. TROPICS ARE LOOKING QUIET AS WELL.

Exactly like in 04 with Charley...