Percent of Chance For TC Development (D4SDI)

[Dean4Storms]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Called the..... D4S Development Index (Special Thanks to Stormavoider)


I'm going to apply this formula and give the chance once daily to all invests/disturbances in the Atlantic Basin only and track its results for the rest of the season. All Probabilities apply for the next 24 hours or until the next days post. Any comments are more than welcome.

91L on 8-8-06 at 12noon EST

Percent of Chance 40%
Parameters met- C, E, F, G, H


RESULT- No Development



Percent of Chance For TC Development

Basis for Development and Percent

A) Convection @ 20%
1) Persistent Deep Convection near apparent center/Low as seen on Sat. imagery for at least 24-36hrs.
2) An apparent counterclockwise movement of convection toward the apparent center.

B) Winds @ 20%
1) Counterclockwise Winds Recorded at the surface by Buoy, Ship, Land Obs. In all Quadrants. .
2) Satellite support and Qscat or Devorak support.

C) Upper Level Conditions @ 20%
1) Divergence aloft moving out in a Clockwise movement, UL High.
2) Wind shear within favorable limits under 20kts.

D) Model Support @ 20%
1) At least 2 Global Models supporting development

E) Sea Surface Temperatures @ 5%
1) SST’s at 80 degrees or higher.

F) Motion @ 5%
1) Forward motion under 25kts.

G) Climatology Support @ 5%
1) Favorable areas for development climatologically.

H) Time @ 5%
1) Ability to remain over Warm Water for at least 24 hrs. at beginning of convection persistence.


EDIT: Added disclaimer -senorpepr

[Dean4Storms]

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.


8-8-06 12noon est

Percent of Chance- 15%
Parameters met- E, F, G


RESULT- No development.

[Dean4Storms]

Invest 92L........

8-13-06 12 noon est

Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- C, E, F, G, H

8-13-06 7:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 20%
Parameters Met- E,F,G,H

8-14-06 5:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 20%
Parameters Met- E, F, G, H

Result No Development

[Dean4Storms]

Invest 93L

8-13-06 12 noon est

Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- D, E, F, G, H


8-13-06 7:00pm est


Percent of Chance- 60%
Parameters Met- C, D, E, F, G, H (Adding C. due UL winds appearing to be favorable, 10kt. shear.)


8-14-06 5:00pm est.


Percent of Chance- 60%
Parameters Met- A, D, E, F, G, H (Dropped C. due to higher UL winds over area trying to organize.


8-15-06 5:00pm est
Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- D, E, F, G, H (Dropped A. due to lack of convection)


8-16-06 9:00am est
Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, B, C, E, F, G, H (Dropped D. due to lack of model support.)


8-17-06 5:00pm est
Percent of Chance- 60%
Parameters Met- A, B, E, F, G, H (Dropped C. due to increase in Shear)


RESULT- No Development

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Excellent Scale.

[StormScanWx]

Excellent Scale.

I agree! That is excellent.

Does anyone know what the real parameters are for an area to be classified as an INVEST?

Thanks,

SSW

[JonathanBelles]

wow excelant!

[Dean4Storms]

Thanks Guys for the comments, any suggestions are welcomed also.

[mtm4319]

You may want to compare your percentages to the map shown here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/current/xyrfpr.gif
No area in the Atlantic currently has more than a 4% chance, but I'm not sure whether each square is to be taken individually, or if they should be combined to get the total percentage for a more general area.

[CrazyC83]

Using those for 94L here is my estimate at this point:

Criteria met: A, C, E, F, G, H (too early for D, all are 12-16 hours old) - 60/80 - 75% chance

[CrazyC83]

As for 93L based on my view:

Criteria met: D, E, F, G, H - 40% chance

[Robjohn53]

Excellent,very nice

[Dean4Storms]

Invest 94L

8-14-06 5:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 60%
Parameters met- A, C, E, F, G, H


8-15-06 5:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 20%
Parameters Met- E, F, G, H


RESULT- NO DEVELOPMENT

[Deputy Van Halen]

You may want to compare your percentages to the map shown here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... xyrfpr.gif
No area in the Atlantic currently has more than a 4% chance, but I'm not sure whether each square is to be taken individually, or if they should be combined to get the total percentage for a more general area.

What time period do the probabilities on this map apply to? The next __ hours??

[CrazyC83]

My current estimated chances:

93L - meets D, E, F, G, H - 40% chance

94L - meets B, C, E, F, G, H - 60% chance

97E - meets A, C, E, F, G, H (too soon for D) - 75% chance

[Jim Cantore]

Good stuff

[CrazyC83]

Here are my current assessments:

93L - B, E, F, G, H - 40% chance

Former 94L - E, F, G, H - 20% chance

LC blob - C, E, F, G, H (too soon for D) - 50% chance

[Dean4Storms]

You may want to compare your percentages to the map shown here:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... xyrfpr.gif
No area in the Atlantic currently has more than a 4% chance, but I'm not sure whether each square is to be taken individually, or if they should be combined to get the total percentage for a more general area.

What time period do the probabilities on this map apply to? The next __ hours??

I should have stated that, sorry. I'm going with 24 hours or at least till the next days post.

[Dean4Storms]

Invest 95 L

8-16-06
Percent of Chance- 20%
Parameters Met- E, F, G, H


RESULT- NO DEVELOPMENT

[StormScanWx]

*BUMP*