Florida Straits Disturbance.......

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:25 pm

The Tropical Wave seems to be getting enhanced by the ULL to its NW, much like Chirs lived off of for awhile until the ULL to his east caught up with him. Convection grew this evening between Cuber and the Bahamas, lets see if it persists overnight. Could be something that BEARS watching if it does so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Lifesgud2 · #2 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:29 pm

Dean,

You think this is more than an open wave??? Yes there is convection, but strong shearing hear...What are you saying?

Acral · #3 Postby **Acral** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:30 pm

Well, it would not have to hang on too long to escape the shear, then it could become something.

Stormavoider · #4 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:33 pm

I was just getting ready to post a topic about the convection north of central Cuba. I was wondering if our resident experts were monitoring this huge blob of convection.

rainstorm · #5 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:34 pm

absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

boca · #6 Postby **boca** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:35 pm

Chris was in the same position and it went poof. This will also go poof by tomorrow morning. Everything so far in the tropics go poof because of shear thats why I'm a firm believer that were facing an El Nino this winter. It might be neutral conditions but the symptoms are there before the full blown cold breaks out sort of speak.

Lifesgud2 · #7 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:35 pm

Hmmmm...we shall see.

Lifesgud2 · #8 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:37 pm

rainstorm wrote:absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

How do you want it served? Crow that is

#9 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:38 pm

Right now the ULL is helping divergence aloft, thus the convection. But at the same time a recurrence of TStorms over the same area can develop a low and in those warm SST's it might not take much. If a low can develop from persistant convection the ULL may move away and give it a more favorable environment in time. Continued convection here is what is needed. If it dissapates forget it. But it is worth mentioning at this point.

#10 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:41 pm

rainstorm wrote:absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

Who said anything about the Gulf?

boca · #11 Postby **boca** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:47 pm

This is exactly what Chris went thru.Their was an ULL in the NGOM venting Chris and because of the shear it dissipated. We need the rain down here so I hope it forms into a depression,but like Chris poof by tomorrow am.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:49 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:
rainstorm wrote:absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

Who said anything about the Gulf?

according to Houston AFDs and models, this system will eventually be coming to TX.

#13 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:51 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
rainstorm wrote:absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

Who said anything about the Gulf?
according to Houston AFDs and models, this system will eventually be coming to TX.

Hopefully in the same condition "Chris" was today when he came ashore!!!

#14 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:53 pm

boca wrote:This is exactly what Chris went thru.Their was an ULL in the NGOM venting Chris and because of the shear it dissipated. We need the rain down here so I hope it forms into a depression,but like Chris poof by tomorrow am.

No, Chris got overrun by an ULL coming in from the east behind him, that is why his top got blown to the south over PR, e.t.c...

You look at this WV loop and you'll see a high to the east of this area, this could go generally northward as the ULL pulls away if it was too develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

#15 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:53 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
rainstorm wrote:absolutely no chance. massive northeast shear in the gom

Who said anything about the Gulf?
according to Houston AFDs and models, this system will eventually be coming to TX.

Yes, the ULL will head for Texas.

#16 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 9:57 pm

Don't get me wrong, I have not said that it is going to develop, but that if the convection we see currently was too persist we MIGHT have a player. Like I said, it is worth mentioning and watching.

#17 Postby **tgenius** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:02 pm

So is that the system thats supposed to bring rain to us tommorow?

#18 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:12 pm

tgenius wrote:So is that the system thats supposed to bring rain to us tommorow?

Yes, as that ULL that is currently over south Florida pulls to your west you will be on the moist side of it allowing ample moisture to flow in from the SE thus enhancing lift and giving you guys some rain.

#19 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:14 pm

Well I don't think it's in the Fla. straits yet but take a look! Possible MLC forming.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif
And if you look at the IR loop on the GHCC site, speed it up alittle seems like there is some rotation there.

#20 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 08, 2006 10:22 pm

Yep, you can make out a rotation from Miami radar long range, but it ain't the best being that far away.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Florida Straits Disturbance.......

Florida Straits Disturbance.......

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