will everything get more favorable???

[willjnewton]

I understand that things our really UNfavorable in the atlantic for cyclone development due to too much trough's along the east coast and so on, but any way come late august and september if someone looks at the conditions in the atlantic will everything change and be just right for many east coast hurricane threats for this 2006 hurricane season OR gulf coast threats???please explain, thankyou

[Bane]

Within th enext 10-15 days, more favorable conditions should develop. Look for possible development off the southeastern US coast during this time frame.

[Steve]

>>I understand that things our really UNfavorable in the atlantic for cyclone development due to too much trough's along the east coast and so on, but any way come late august and september if someone looks at the conditions in the atlantic will everything change and be just right for many east coast hurricane threats for this 2006 hurricane season OR gulf coast threats???please explain, thankyou

I agree will.

Steve

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, what we are seeing across the tropics in terms of wind shear is quite "normal" for early August. What isn't normal is that we've already seen 3 named storms (not counting that one which formed off Nova Scotia last month that the NHC called a "frontal low" where there was no cold front.

Climatologically, the shear across the tropics starts to drop off rather sharply after mid August, and I think that this year won't be too different from climatology. Once the large area of sinking air currently over the Atlantic Basin moves out in 10-15 days, I think we'll see quite an increase in activity. Probably 6-9 straight storms through early October, including 2-3 major hurricanes. That'll bring us up to 9-12 named storms for the season by early October. Could see 1-3 after that. Very much normal activity for August-November.

Any of you who guessed 20 or more named storms for 2006 want to change your estimates yet?

[willjnewton]

so you guys are saying that it is normal to have this much wind shear, and that things will change come mid august???, and if you look at the steering current patterns in the atlantic, will this hurricane season of 2006 likely be a east coast threat or a gulf coast threat???

[willjnewton]

can someone please respond I just asked a question

[rainstorm]

if you want my opinion, i feel threats to any part of the coast will be limited this season. lets see if the pattern does change

[WXBUFFJIM]

Shear is quite abundant and so is dry air, which keeps the atmosphere stable, lacking thunderstorms, and whatever thunderstorms try to develop get ripped apart away from any center of circulation that forms. Hence little tropical development up to this point in the season, which is actually quite typical for this time of year. It's usually after mid August when conditions become more favorable for tropical development as we see more moisture, less shear, and warmer sea surface temperature combined as we approach the climotological peak of the hurricane season around September 10th.

This season has been an average season so far relative to the 30 year average.


Jim

[ConvergenceZone]

can someone please respond I just asked a question

No disrespect, but didn't ya create another thread earlier where you asked this same questin? just worded differently? Or maybe I"m thinking of someone else. If so, my apologies.

[cheezyWXguy]

so you guys are saying that it is normal to have this much wind shear, and that things will change come mid august???, and if you look at the steering current patterns in the atlantic, will this hurricane season of 2006 likely be a east coast threat or a gulf coast threat???

You tend to ask this question a lot...once a gain...no one has a crystal ball...no one can answer your question perfectly and you need to lay back a little.

can someone please respond I just asked a question

Also, i dont mean any disrespect either, and I know you want an answer, but you need to be a little less impatient. People can take your posts with the wrong idea and think youre trying to be disrespectful or rude. So just please wait a little longer than 15 minutes to write an impatient post...people wont always be here to answer youre questions

[willjnewton]

I am sorry, I still love you all,you may lock this thread

[cheezyWXguy]

no problem will...we love you too

[Downdraft]

Sorry Willie but asking the same question over and over just to get a thread starting and then requesting it be locked is getting old.

[Stephanie]

so you guys are saying that it is normal to have this much wind shear, and that things will change come mid august???, and if you look at the steering current patterns in the atlantic, will this hurricane season of 2006 likely be a east coast threat or a gulf coast threat???

That's exactly what wxman57 and the others are saying will!

We can keep this open will. It's no problem.

[Swimdude]

I'm actually interested in the subject as well. I've heard the media raving in both directions - towards a heavy Gulf Coast season, and a heavy East Coast season as well. It should be interesting to see how it turns out. So far, we're pretty even!

[brunota2003]

I can tell you this, we most likely will not know until the end of the season after all is said and done...

[Jim Cantore]

Just keep this in mind, things can change overnight, this is why I dont like to predict long range (past 72-96 hours)

[beachbum_al]

As far as I am concern it can stay quiet. I want my fall break in Oct.

[NC George]

With respect to the gulf coast/east coast question, it will be one of the three following choices:

a) both
b) neither
or
c) one or the other

Will, do you have a bet on this or something? I have a burning desire to know why you have a burning desire for us to answer the question you ask every day. Lastly, where are you located? If you'll notice, most of us have our location listed with our avatar.

I expect an answer within 15 minutes!

[HurricaneJoe22]

will, hello. where are you? come on, answer the question. if u answer the question we will love you a lot.