My Analysis: U.S. Landfalls And Activity In The Atlantic

[Swimdude]

Correlation Between Activity And U.S. Landfalls?


This section shows the year, followed by the number of storms that year, followed by total number of landfalls, and finally, what percent of storms made landfall in the U.S. Please note that this information does not include tropical depressions, but DOES include Subtropical systems.

1851 – 6 – 3 – 50%
1852 – 5 – 3 – 60%
1853 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1854 – 5 – 3 – 50%
1855 – 5 – 1 – 20%
1856 – 6 – 3 – 50%
1857 – 4 – 2 – 50%
1858 – 6 – 1 – 16.6%
1859 – 8 – 2 – 25%
1860 – 7 – 3 – 42.9%
1861 – 8 – 4 – 50%
1862 – 6 – 0 – 0%
1863 – 9 – 2 – 22.2%
1864 – 5 – 0 – 0%
1865 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1866 – 7 – 2 – 28.6%
1867 – 9 – 2 – 22.2%
1868 – No Data Available
1869 – 10 – 4 – 40%
1870 – 11 – 3 – 27.3%
1871 – 8 – 6 – 75%
1872 – 5 – 2 – 40%
1873 – 5 – 4 – 80%
1874 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1875 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1876 – 5 – 2 – 40%
1877 – 9 – 3 – 33.3%
1878 – 12 – 4 – 33.3%
1879 – 8 – 6 – 75%
1880 – 11 – 6 – 54.5%
1881 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1882 – 6 – 4 – 66.7%
1883 – 4 – 1 – 25%
1884 – 4 – 1 – 25%
1885 – 8 – 5 – 62.5%
1886 – 12 – 7 – 58.3%
1887 – 19 – 6 – 31.6%
1888 – 9 – 6 – 66.7%
1889 – 9 – 6 – 66.7%
1890 – 4 – 1 – 25%
1891 – 10 – 3 – 30%
1892 – 9 – 3 – 33.3%
1893 – 12 – 7 – 58.3%
1894 – 7 – 3 – 42.9%
1895 – 6 – 4 – 66.7%
1896 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1897 – 6 – 4 – 66.7%
1898 – 11 – 5 – 45.4%
1899 – 9 – 5 – 55.6%
1900 – 7 – 3 – 42.9%
1901 – 12 – 6 – 50%
1902 – 5 – 3 – 60%
1903 – 10 – 2 – 20%
1904 – 5 – 3 – 60%
1905 – 5 – 2 – 40%
1906 – 11 – 5 – 45.4%
1907 – 5 – 3 – 60%
1908 – 10 – 3 – 30%
1909 – 11 – 7 – 63.6%
1910 – 5 – 2 – 40%
1911 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1912 – 7 – 5 – 71.4%
1913 – 6 – 3 – 50%
1914 – 1 – 1 – 100%
1915 – 5 – 4 – 80%
1916 – 14 – 8 – 57.1%
1917 – 3 – 1 – 33.3%
1918 – 5 – 2 – 40%
1919 – 3 – 2 – 66.7%
1920 – 4 – 3 – 75%
1921 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1922 – 4 – 1 – 25%
1923 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1924 – 9 – 3 – 33.3%
1925 – 2 – 2 – 100%
1926 – 11 – 4 – 36.4%

***Note: When analyzing this data, one must consider that areas East of about 50W may not have been adequately monitored for storms. The technology was simply not available. The 1927 map shows the first signs of spreading the tracking of storms all the way to the coast of Africa. But even the well-known 1933 map doesn’t seem complete and no tracks begin before 40W. Keep this in mind as we analyze the data later on.***

1927 – 7 – 1 – 14.3%
1928 – 6 – 3 – 50%
1929 – 3 – 2 – 66.7%
1930 – 2 – 1 – 50%
1931 – 9 – 2 – 22.2%
1932 – 11 – 5 – 45.4%
1933 – 21 – 7 – 33.3%
1934 – 11 – 5 – 45.4%
1935 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1936 – 16 – 7 – 43.8%
1937 – 9 – 4 – 44.4%
1938 – 8 – 4 – 50%
1939 – 5 – 3 – 60%
1940 – 8 – 4 – 50%
1941 – 6 – 4 – 66.7%
1942 – 10 – 3 – 30%
1943 – 10 – 4 – 40%
1944 – 11 – 4 – 36.4%
1945 – 11 – 4 – 36.4%
1946 – 6 – 4 – 66.7%
1947 – 9 – 7 – 77.8%
1948 – 9 – 4 – 44.4%
1949 – 13 – 3 – 23.1%
1950 – 13 – 4 – 30.8%
1951 – 10 – 1 – 10%
1952 – 7 – 2 – 28.6%
1953 – 14 – 7 – 50%
1954 – 11 – 4 – 36.4%
1955 – 12 – 5 – 41.7%
1956 – 8 – 2 – 25%
1957 – 8 – 5 – 62.5%
1958 – 10 – 2 – 20%
1959 – 11 – 6 – 54.5%
1960 – 7 – 4 – 57.1%
1961 – 11 – 3 – 27.3%
1962 – 5 – 1 – 20%
1963 – 9 – 1 – 11.1%
1964 – 12 – 5 – 41.7%
1965 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1966 – 11 – 2 – 18.2%
1967 – 8 – 2 – 25%
1968 – 8 – 3 – 37.5%
1969 – 18 – 3 – 16.7%
1970 – 10 – 3 – 30%
1971 – 13 – 5 – 38.5%
1972 – 7 – 3 – 42.9%
1973 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1974 – 11 – 2 – 18.2%
1975 – 9 – 1 – 11.1%
1976 – 10 – 4 – 40%
1977 – 6 – 1 – 16.7%
1978 – 12 – 2 – 16.7%
1979 – 9 – 5 – 55.6%
1980 – 11 – 2 – 18.2%
1981 – 12 – 2 – 16.7%
1982 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1983 – 4 – 2 – 50%
1984 – 13 – 2 – 15.4%
1985 – 11 – 8 – 72.7%
1986 – 6 – 2 – 33.3%
1987 – 7 – 2 – 28.6%
1988 – 12 – 4 – 33.3%
1989 – 11 – 4 – 36.4%
1990 – 14 – 1 – 7.1%
1991 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1992 – 7 – 2 – 28.6%
1993 – 8 – 2 – 25%
1994 – 7 – 3 – 42.9%
1995 – 19 – 5 – 26.3%
1996 – 13 – 4 – 30.8%
1997 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1998 – 14 – 7 – 50%
1999 – 12 – 5 – 41.7%
2000 – 15 – 2 – 13.3%
2001 – 15 – 3 – 20%
2002 – 12 – 8 – 66.7%
2003 – 16 – 4 – 25%
2004 – 15 – 9 – 60%
2005 – 28 – 8 – 28.6%

Wow that took forever! Anyway, from just typing in the numbers and glancing over them, there doesn’t seem to be much of a trend at all. But I’d like to see if a high or low % landfall rate correlates directly or indirectly with an active season. To do this, let’s take the top ten years with the highest % landfall, as well as the bottom ten years, with the lowest % landfall.

1914 – 1 – 1 – 100%
1925 – 2 – 2 – 100%
1873 – 5 – 4 – 80%
1915 – 5 – 4 – 80%
1947 – 9 – 7 – 77.8%
1871 – 8 – 6 – 75%
1879 – 8 – 6 – 75%
1920 – 4 – 3 – 75%
1985 – 11 – 8 – 72.7%
1912 – 7 – 5 – 71.4%

In the top 10 “landfalling years”, we see that they’re spread out quite evenly since records have begun. Note that the average number of storms during these years was 6. [Note that this data might be skewed due to the season that had only one storm and one landfall, thus, 100% landfall rate.]


1862 – 6 – 0 – 0%
1864 – 5 – 0 – 0%
1990 – 14 – 1 – 7.1%
1951 – 10 – 1 – 10%
1963 – 9 – 1 – 11.1%
1975 – 9 – 1 – 11.1%
1853 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1973 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1991 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1997 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%

Looking at the bottom of the food chain, you might notice that the years are fairly spread out as well. Perhaps a bit more into the 20th century, but nothing significant. Note that the average number of storms during these years was 8.5.


One more bit of analysis before we’re finished. I also thought it might be interesting to see if the percentage of storms making landfall has increased over the years. So here’s the averages, in chunks of 30 years. Note that I skipped data for 1868, as it is N/A, so I tacked on 1855 at the beginning of the first 30 years.

1855-1885 = 40.323%
1886-1915 = 51.697%
1916-1945 = 45.850%
1946-1975 = 30.000%
1976-2005 = 31.930%

Any correlation?

You tell me. Because if it’s there, I don’t see it!

Hope y'all enjoyed that!!

Swimdude

This project was inspired by this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88036

[jasons2k]

awesome, thanks for this

[chris_fit]

Nice Work!

[senorpepr]

Have yourself a cookie for the hard work. Way to go -- good job.

[MWatkins]

Hey Swim! Good to see some numbers driven work!

The only thing I would mention is the percentage of ovserved to landfall events has probably gone down due to satellite technology and to a lesser extent aircraft recon...we are seeing more storms now so we are observing more than just the storms close to the trades or land.

However...the percentages you've come up with here are still useful because they can be applied to determine how much we may have underestimated TC activity in the pre satellite era.

Nice post...

MW

[Acral]

Great post .. thank you!!!

[AussieMark]

1995 – 19 – 5 – 26.3%
1996 – 13 – 4 – 30.8%
1997 – 8 – 1 – 12.5%
1998 – 14 – 7 – 50%
1999 – 12 – 5 – 41.7%
2000 – 15 – 2 – 13.3%
2001 – 15 – 3 – 20%
2002 – 12 – 8 – 66.7%
2003 – 16 – 4 – 25%
2004 – 15 – 9 – 60%
2005 – 28 – 8 – 28.6%

if u look at the current Active phase 1998 and 2004 have a high percentage for active seasons