GOM System (Ex 95L)

[Stormcenter]

Read below.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEW PTS IN THE 70S. THE PROBLEM IS
THIS MOISTURE DOES NOT REACH VERY HIGH OVER SE LA. BUT THE FARTHER
EAST ONE GOES THE DEEPER THE MOISTURE PROFILE. HERE FAVORABLE RH
LEVELS FOR RAIN ONLY REACH ~850MB. BUT BY THE TIME ONE REACHES
PASCAGOULA THE PROFILE REACHES ~650MB. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE IS
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AGAIN
TODAY SINCE THE ONLY FORCING IS BUOYANCY FROM HEATING.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STALLED FRONT AN
UPPER LOW AND A STRONGLY INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO
FLA WILL MOVE WEST WHILE THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST WILL STAY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE GA/AL/TN BORDERS IS
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO FLA CAUSING A STRONGLY
DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT WHERE THE TWO RELATIVE FLOWS SPLIT. THIS IS
HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. IT IS ALSO CAUSING AN
AREA OF VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER AND AROUND 28N 88W. THIS IS
WHERE SH/TS CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE THIS AREA SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND EVEN CREATE A
CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATION WITH IT EVENTUALLY. PLACEMENT OF
CIRCULATION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. NO MATTER WHERE
OR IF A CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE
UPPER LOW CREATING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW.THE FRONT MOVING INTO ARK AND TENN WILL EVENTUALLY GET HERE BY WED
WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING VERY DRY AIR DOWN ON ITS
WEST SIDE BASICALLY SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN FOR WED(MAY HAVE POP
NUMBERS TOO HIGH ATTM FOR WED). BUT BY WED NIGHT THINGS CHANGE AS
A DEEP WALL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA STARTING EARLY THURSDAY.

[rockyman]

I've been watching this area in the Gulf since yesterday...Conditions appear favorable for development...the area due south of Pensacola shows a little turning.

[Stormcenter]

Nice size blob in the GOM.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[rockyman]

NAM is liking it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 506/5.html

[rockyman]

NOGAPS also shows Gulf development:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/62.html

[Portastorm]

Accuwx's JB was referring to this in his morning chat as opening a new "can of worms" in the Gulf but I wasn't sure what he was on about. Obviously, THIS is it! Interesting ...

[KatDaddy]

Home-brew?????

[skysummit]

Over the weekend, the NWS Nola talked about a few MCSs moving across the gulf from east to west that we would need to watch for development. This must be one of them.

[SouthFloridawx]

Good find stormcenter!

EDIT:

Most of the models are showing some low level vorticity in the GOM. I see the track, differs somwhat.

The NAM and the NOGAPS are trying to close up a low in the GOM around the 17th.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 1.zoom.png
NAM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/62.html
NOGAPS

[Stormcenter]

Even though the NHC doesn't mention it in the 11:30am outlook I would still keep an eye on this area (GOM) not so much today but in the next few days. IMO

[Jim Cantore]

NAM is liking it:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 506/5.html

Not anymore, now it predicts nothing.

Heres a tip, the NAM isnt exactly the greatest model with the tropics.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Good area to watch, but as I have learned from this season, I am not going to get too excited until this starts to look more organized.

[tailgater]

Pressures high, but down .08 from this time yesterday
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots of convection firing this afternoon:

[HouTXmetro]

[Derek Ortt]

just a blob, no big deal

[beachbum_al]

All I know it is hot, humid, and miserably hot down here. I think I will agree with Derek and go ahead and enjoy my weekend at the Gulf while watching the big old speed boats race up and down the Gulf of Mexico in Orange Beach.

[Stormcenter]

All I know it is hot, humid, and miserably hot down here. I think I will agree with Derek and go ahead and enjoy my weekend at the Gulf while watching the big old speed boats race up and down the Gulf of Mexico in Orange Beach.

Just stay away from that "blob".

[Stormcenter]

It's a rapidly growing "blob".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[HouTXmetro]

this is the "Big" One.


Alicia 83, run for the hills