Time to Revise Those 2006 Season Predictions!

[wxman57]

Bored? Want something to do?

Dr. Gray and NOAA get to revise their seasonal predictions, why can't we? Those of you (and there were many) who predicted 20+ named storms this year just might be thinking that you'd overestimated the number a tad. You think? My numbers were 15/8/4.

So, what were your original numbers, and what are your revised numbers for the season? I have a good idea what I'd change, but I want to see your numbers first.

If you want, break it down by month. How many named storms, hurricanes, majors in August? September? October? November?

Note: This is not an "official" revision. Just for run.

[hurricanedude]

mine were 13/5/3
im sticking with it

[LarryWx]

Mine that were set at 9/4/2 in 6/06 are remaining the same.

[whereverwx]

My numbers are 14/7/4, and when I first made my prediction, I stated that my numbers may be a little high. If anything, I would drop the numbers down to 13/5/3, based on the current pattern. And here is “monthly break down:”

August – 2/1/0
September – 5/3/2
October – 2/1/1
November – 1/0/0

I noticed that after every hyperactive year (such as 1996 and 1934), the numbers of named storms were significantly lower.

1995 had a total of 19 named storms. 1996 only had 13.
1933 had a total of 21 named storms. 1934 only had 11.

One difference with the year after is that the ratio of named storms to hurricanes was much higher. In 1996, 9 out of the 13 stroms that had developed became hurricanes. In 1934, 6 out of the 11 storms that had developed became hurricanes, but of course that was in the pre satellite and recon era. So the real numbers may never be known.

[bob rulz]

What about 2004 and 2005? 2004 had 15 storms, and then look at what happened in 2005? It doesn't always work that way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so I could go 12/3/1...But I'm going to play it safe in think that it will pick up inline with 1998. So I will go with 12/4/2 for my offical revise. I'm not sure about this season. It go bust hard when that dry cap finally breaks.

[cycloneye]

1-Cycloneye=16/9/4=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 3/28/06
2-Meso=19/9/5
3-Team Ragnarok=17/7/4 (Preliminary) 18/7/4=(Final) 5/4/06
4-Ixolib=21/11/5
5-weatherwoman132=24/10/5 (Preliminary) 19/10/6=(Final) 5/19/06
6-Matt-hurricanewatcher=13/5/2=(Preliminary) 15/7/3=(Final) 5/5/06
7-Yarrah=15/9/4
8-webke=17/9/4
9-angelwing=26/10/5=(Preliminary) 27/11/6=(Final) 4/21/06
10-CHRISTY=22/11/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/31/06
11-King-6=19/11/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 3/23/06
12-skysummit=17/11/4
13-feederband=22/13/6
14-raindaze=21/11/4
15-CapeVerdeWave=16/9/6=(Preliminary) 16/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
16-Weatherfreak000=24/9/6
17-alicia-w=21/16/5
18-HurricaneGirl=21/12/6
19-CrazyC83=18/11/7=(Preliminary) 20/12/7=(Final) 5/4/06
20-Andrew92=18/10/6
21-Hurricane Hunter 914=18/9/6=(Preliminary) 20/12/8=(Final) 5/28/06
22-vbhoutex=19/11/6= (Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/9/06
23-southerngale=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/9/06
24-Opal Storm=19/10/6=(Preliminary)18/9/6=(Final) 5/7/06
25-HURAKAN=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 19/11/6 (Final) 4/27/06
26-Bob R=16/8/4
27-ROCK=17/9/4
28-KWT=22/15/5=(Preliminary) 19/12/6=(Final) 5/24/06
29-Milankovitch=15/8/4
30-fact789=20/10/3=(Preliminary) 20/10/4=(Final) 5/30/06
31-GeneratorPower=30/17/7
32-boca_chris=22/11/5=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 4/11/06
33-boca=17/9/4
34-Calamity=14/7/4
35-Steve=15/9/4
36-pelican13=16/8/4
37-hurricanefloyd5=20/10/6
38-x-y-no=18/11/6
39-storm4u=24/17/9=(Preliminary) 23/13/6=(Final) 5/11/06
40-mike815=18/8/5
41-JamesFromMaine2=22/13/5
42-Hurraicaneman=16/10/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 4/27/06
43-Audrey2Katrina=16/7/3
44-aaaaaa=30/15/10
45-TampaFl=18/8/6
46-Hybridstorm_November2001=25/15/7
47-swimaster20=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/9/5=(Final) 5/22 06
48-RatteMan=20/13/5=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/30/06
49-Scorpion=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/10/5=(Final) 5/16/06
50-Brunota2003=25/15/9
51-WindRunner=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/7/3=(Final) 5/15/06
52-wxwatcher91=17/10/6
53-johngaltfla=23/12/5
54-jason0909=15/7/4
55-george r 1961=20/10/5
56-Brent=17/9/5
57-southfloridawx2005=19/9/6=(Preliminary) 19/9/6=(Final) 3/28/06
58-weatherwindow=19/11/7
59-O Town=20/10/5
60-Trey=18/11/5
61-stacyp=11/5/2
62-CajunMama=19/8/3
63-Ivan14=18/9/6
64-f5=20/10/5
65-windycity=17/8/5 (Preliminary) 17/10/4=(Final) 4/3/06
66-NCHurricane=20/10/5=(Preliminary) 19/10/5=(Final) 5/22/06
67-wxman22=20/10/4
68-Stephanie=16/8/4
69-docjoe=20/14/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/14/06
70-therock1811=20/10/5
71-drezee=15/9/4
72-James=17/7/4
73-ohiostorm=19/10/6
74-100feettstormsurge=19/11/5=(Preliminary) 22/12/6=(Final) 5/30/06
75-lester88=23/12/5
76-EFrancis=25/11/4
77-thefixed=23/12/7=(Preliminary) 21/10/6=(Final) 5/31/06
78-Pearl River=19/15/6
79-wayne56=19/13/7
80-benny=15/8/4
81-StormScanWx=18/10/4=(Preliminary) 19/11/5=(Final) 3/31/06
82-Vortex=18/9/5
83-reader12=17/11/4
84-JtSmarts=17/10/5
85-Extremeweatherguy=18/9/4=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/19/06
86-canetracker=17/9/5
87-FlSteel=19/12/7
88-Johnny=19/10/5
89-TexasStooge=17/8/4=(Preliminary) 17/9/4=(Final) 3/22/06
90-NONAME=22/15/6
91-dixiebreeze=15/7/4
92-BayouVenteux=16/9/5=(Preliminary 16/9/4=(Final) 4/19/06
93-Jack8631=19/9/4
94-JPmia=21/14/6
95-ivanhater=19/11/7=(Preliminary)19/11/7=(Final) 5/7/06
96-The European=20/11/6
97-AussieMark=15/8/5=(Preliminary 14/7/4=(Final) 5/31/06
98-StormsFury=18/11/5
99-The Cycloman PR=15/9/4
100-mikeanthony1965=20/12/5
101-luvwinter=19/10/6
102-stormchazer=18/16/4
103-MGC=15/9/4
104-Rainband=20/14/8=(Preliminary) 20/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
105-wxmann 91=16/10/7=(Preliminary) 14-8-5=(Final) 5/11/06
106-Hurricane Floyd=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 17/9/5=(Final) 5/9/06
107-Jax=21/10/3
108-Isu2001=20/9/4
109-HouTXmetro=23/12/7
110-cheezywxman=22/11/6
111-terstorm1012=16/9/4
112-Recurve=26/12/5=(Preliminary) 23/11/3=(Final) 5/14/2006
113-EDR1222=14/6/3=(Preliminary) 14/7/4=(Final) 5/2/06
114-jdray=19/10/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/2/06
115-zoeyann=21/12/5
116-pojo=19/12/6
117-LSU_Weatherguy=16/12/7
118-Cookiely=19/10/6
119-cinlfla=18/13/7
120-Beer980=20/11/5
121-LaPlaceFF=22/11/5
122-Tampa Bay Hurricane=16/12/9
123-Evil Jeremy=19/11/7 (Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/22/06
124-Tstormwatcher=19/10/5
125-coriolis=21/10/5
126-meteorologyman=27/14/7=(Preliminary) 30/20/12=(Final) 5/18/06
127-jusforsean=24/14/7
128-Downdraft=18/9/6
129-Camille_2_Katrina=12/5/2
130-Destruction5=18/11/5
131-Trader Ron=16/9/4
132-28 Storms=20/10/7
133-Tommedic=22/11/6
134-Windtalker1=23/12/8
135-Josephine96=19/10/6
136-Truqunzn=29/16/10
137-senorpepr=18/10/5
138-CronkPSU=21/14/4
139-YankeeGirl=18/11/5
140-Canelaw99=18/7/3
141-mempho=22/16/11
142-WeatherEmperor=18/8/5
143-RQSTR=23/14/9
144-Air Force Met=18/10/5
145-deltadog03=20/13/6
146-baw_es=15/11/5
147-magwitch=28/15/6
148-thunderchief=17/10/5
149-BiloxiBacon=14/7/4
150-m_ru=27/17/10
151-dhweather=16/11/5
152-Old-TimeCane=19/8/5
153-chadtm80=18/11/5
154-jschlitz=17/12/6
155-T genius=18/8/4
156-fwbbreeze=17/7/5
157-Stratusxpeye=17/12/5
158-wlfpack81=18/11/7
159-raisinsnacks=15/7/3
160-Thunder44=18/10/4
161- Regit=22/13/6
162-Pebbles=17/9/4
163-drudd1=20/14/7
164-apocalypt-flyer=19/11/6
165-Weather Watcher=19/8/4
166-P.K.=18/12/6
167-Loring=18/9/4
168-vacanechaser=17/12/6
169-skywarn=19/12/7
170-PTrackerLA=19/10/6
171-mvtrucking=20/9/4
172-Wnghs2007=18/12/6
173-wxman57=15/8/4
174-Hyperstorm=14/9/4
175-GalvestonDuck=17/10/4
176-milwaukeebrian=19/11/5
177-rainshine=19/9/6
178-Aquawind=15/9/5
179-wz247=20/11/6
180-Maxibide=16/12/5
181-Tampa God=21/15/7


This is the official storm2k poll that I did starting on March 15 and closed on May 31rst.Interesting the spread of the numbers.Let's see which member(s) will come the most close to what in reallity the 2006 season will end up. No changes can be made to the poll.But anyone can post at the wxman57 thread any revised numbers.

[whereverwx]

What about 2004 and 2005? 2004 had 15 storms, and then look at what happened in 2005? It doesn't always work that way.

Well, 2004 was active, but it wasn’t “hyperactive.” I’m mainly looking at years where over 17 or so named storms developed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I can't remember thing right now. In my eyes and head hurt. Darn it.

[StormScanWx]

Original Numbers---19/11/5

Revised Numbers---9/3/1

Just my opinion.

[wxmann_91]

13/7/4

Although most hyperactive years are followed by quieter years, that's pretty much logic. However, my theory is that MAYBE (too lazy to bold that but remember that) active cycles both start and end with a major hyperactive season.

1950-1969 (1950 had the most majors before 2005, and 1969 was as active as 1995)

1995-2005?

Hmmm... again JUST A THEORY. Probably not true and my prediction's not based on that.

EDIT: This was my original: 14-8-5

My updated prediction would have 10 more NS, 7 more canes, and 4 more majors.

[skysummit]

Original: 17/11/4

Revised: 14/7/3

[wxman57]

Thanks for posting the original list, cycloneye. Amazing how high the predictions were. Median must be close to 18-19 named storms. Fortunately, the tropics have no memory of what happened in 2005. Seasons with 17 or more named storms are quite rare.

[JonathanBelles]

original: 20/10/4
revised: 10/5/2

[willjnewton]

I will say 13/6/0 storms for overall for this season and whats wxmans57 revised predictions again???

[skysummit]

Will..so you're saying we won't even have at least 1 Cat 3?

[ROCK]

17/9/4 original


10/5/2 revised.......better get going soon or I'll busting these numbers as well....

[Brent]

56-Brent=17/9/5

Yeah... I think I busted. I'm thinking more like 13/7/3 now, with a Major Hurricane by Labor Day... If that doesn't happen, then those numbers will be high.

Ugh.

[boca]

original 17/9/4

now 8/3/1

[DESTRUCTION5]

Was 17/9/5 staying close 16/8/4....Still think the sh** is about to hit the Fan!