Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

[rockyman]

Here's a link to the old thread...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=500

[rockyman]

If anyone wants to add/change the title...let me know and I'll change it

[Steve]

>>Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.

<---- (Debby biting off more than she can chew)

FWIW, any time any discussion has the name "Stewart" associated with it, you know they know what they're doing.

Steve

[PTPatrick]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

OMG is that and eye winking at us...

Just kidding...looks like some of the storms are dying down, which is a blessing

[chrisnnavarre]

>>Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.

<---- (Debby biting off more than she can chew)

FWIW, any time any discussion has the name "Stewart" associated with it, you know they know what they're doing.

Steve

Reminds me of that movie "The Naked Gun" when Frank Drebin was standing in front of the exploding fire works factory and yelling "There's nothing here to see", "There's nothing here to see"!

[Droop12]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

OMG is that and eye winking at us...

Just kidding...looks like some of the storms are dying down, which is a blessing

Haha, It almost looks like an eye, but we wont go there since its a cluster of storms.

[skysummit]

On Rainbow imagery, you can see a MLC quite clearly.

[Stormavoider]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

OMG is that and eye winking at us...

Just kidding...looks like some of the storms are dying down, which is a blessing

Haha, It almost looks like an eye, but we wont go there since its a cluster of storms.

It does have "the look" of a tropical system.

[chrisnnavarre]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

OMG is that and eye winking at us...

Just kidding...looks like some of the storms are dying down, which is a blessing

Haha, It almost looks like an eye, but we wont go there since its a cluster of storms.

It does have "the look" of a tropical system.

Looks like one to me too. I wonder if there are any ship reports from that area coming in.

[Stormavoider]

I posted one a while back with 1009.5 mb pressure.

Update:
SHIP S 2200 13.20 -77.70 191 234 60 15.5 - - - - 29.81

[chrisnnavarre]

I posted one a while back with 1009.5 mb pressure.

Update:
SHIP S 2200 13.20 -77.70 191 234 60 15.5 - - - - 29.81

Thanks,

I think this buoy will also be critical as this moves a tad to the NW.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Stormavoider]

Is there any recent model guidance out on this?

[ConvergenceZone]

all we know is it will hit somewhere within the gulf right now, but it's really up in the air where it will hit...

[Stormavoider]

I don't think we even "know" that.

[Grease Monkey]

What we do know is that it definitely contains moisture.

[SouthFloridawx]

all we know is it will hit somewhere within the gulf right now, but it's really up in the air where it will hit...

It has to form first... Lets see if the convection persists cause that is key in developing a surface low.

[Bailey1777]

It looks like it's still firing off some deep convection.

[carve]

I just went to a visible loop on this and zoomed in..yes it seems the thundestorms have weakened...but it looks like there is a definate circulation forming..any comments would be appreciated.

[wxman57]

Someone asked in the previous thread if I thought it would be a storm by the morning. Definitely NOT. It may be an invest by the morning IF convection persists overnight. Systems like this can develop quickly if convection persists. Earliest I could see a TD would be maybe late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

As for movement, I had said that there appear to be two scenarios. Central Mexico (SW Gulf) to TX/MX Border or SE LA to FL. High pressure should be over central to east Texas, so the upper TX coast to mid LA coast may be protected, maybe even farther eastward.

It's really hard to say with any confidence where this might go. Not until it actually forms will I have a better idea. The slower it forms, the more westward it would go.

[wxman57]

I just went to a visible loop on this and zoomed in..yes it seems the thundestorms have weakened...but it looks like there is a definate circulation forming..any comments would be appreciated.

I can see an MLC near 14.5N/80.2W. No evidence of anything at the surface.