Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Thunder44]

Looks pretty good this morning. It's large with lots of convection and there seems to be a mid to low-level spin near 8.5N and 37W moving west. This will probably be an invest soon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[ronjon]

The CMC also develops this wave and brings it into S FL/Bahamas in 6 days. This one looks to be the next investigation.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

After getting past the SAL area this wave has now juiced up and looks better than 96L last night.

[Thunder44]

The CMC also develops this wave and brings it into S FL/Bahamas in 6 days. This one looks to be the next investigation.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Looks to be too fast in movement. The NOGAPS develops it as well but it much slower and dissapates it by 144hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

This is also the wave that the GFS was developing all of last week and then gave up on. This season is getting weird by the day. If this doesn't go on too develop I'll be convinced that this season is headed for a bust.

[jlauderdal]

This is also the wave that the GFS was developing all of last week and then gave up on. This season is getting weird by the day. If this doesn't go on too develop I'll be convinced that this season is headed for a bust.

i would like to play poker with you since you fold so easily...

[bob rulz]

It looks like it lost some convection.

Also, how do you guys read those models? I don't see anything on them...just colors.

[Lowpressure]

It looks like it lost some convection.

Also, how do you guys read those models? I don't see anything on them...just colors.

Check last sat pics on other thread, this looks good. I do not see that it has lost anything at all, just consolidating from its original elongated structure.

[stormernie]

What you are seeing is some dry air in the apparent low vicinity, once this works out probably around 50 or 55W than we will see development. The northern extension seems to be racing toward the west while the lower is moving at a slower pace. This may help down the road to mix out the dry air.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is also the wave that the GFS was developing all of last week and then gave up on. This season is getting weird by the day. If this doesn't go on too develop I'll be convinced that this season is headed for a bust.

I agree with you 100%. I'm giving the central wave and the eastern wave(the one just coming off the coast) to develop(one or the other), before I call it a bust.... Yea, I know, some will reply "wait until September", then it will be "wait until October"... lol

I'm not worried about that coming to fruition though. I'm pretty positive the wave that came off the coast of Africa will develop. If it doesn't, then this season has a mind of it's own regardless of climatology....

[Hyperstorm]

This wave that we have been following since it came off Africa several days ago has not becomed very organized yet. It looks like its close encounter with the ITCZ and what appears as some SAL intrusion has delayed development. This ITCZ merger typically causes systems to develop more slowly as there is a fight for moisture. I think of it as having a western Pacific tropical cyclone developing from a monsoon trough.

During the past 24 hours, however, the wave itself has developed an established upper-level outflow pattern. I had mentioned that development of this system could happen as early as Tuesday, but it seems to be developing slower than thought. Remember, the longer it takes to develop the higher the chances of it getting closer to the Americas.

I'll still be watching it because its persistance over the Atlantic suggests this system is capable of bursting as soon as it consolidates...

[gatorcane]

This wave that we have been following since it came off Africa several days ago has not becomed very organized yet. It looks like its close encounter with the ITCZ and what appears as some SAL intrusion has delayed development. This ITCZ merger typically causes systems to develop more slowly as there is a fight for moisture. I think of it as having a western Pacific tropical cyclone developing from a monsoon trough.

During the past 24 hours, however, the wave itself has developed an established upper-level outflow pattern. I had mentioned that development of this system could happen as early as Tuesday, but it seems to be developing slower than thought. Remember, the longer it takes to develop the higher the chances of it getting closer to the Americas.

I'll still be watching it because its persistance over the Atlantic suggests this system is capable of bursting as soon as it consolidates...

Thanks Hyperstorm for the insight, could be one of those "stealth" waves that wait until getting closer to the US to take off.

[Thunder44]

I no longer think this will be an invest today. It doesn't look good as it did earlier this morning. It appears to entrenched too much in the SAL to develop now. It's also heading towards an area of higher shear east of the islands:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

May need to be watch when it gets into the Carribean though.

[Sanibel]

This one has flattened again after suggesting organization earlier this morning.

It is fully in the SAL still and will probably become nothing.

[SouthFloridawx]

The CMC also develops this wave and brings it into S FL/Bahamas in 6 days. This one looks to be the next investigation.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Looks to be too fast in movement. The NOGAPS develops it as well but it much slower and dissapates it by 144hrs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

This fast motion would seem to indicate an strong area of high pressure to the North. I am wondering if the models picking up on a weakness is a little under done. This is going to be important to the evolution of 96L.

[bvigal]

12z surface map has now added a low on this wave

(Imageshack very slow for me right now.)

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is the system we need to watch...Its 1st in line

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this is the system we need to watch...Its 1st in line

Yep if there is a surface low associated with a wave it does need to be watched.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think this is the system we need to watch...Its 1st in line

Yep if there is a surface low associated with a wave it does need to be watched.

Still has the look to be a player come 60-70 west IMO...Could catch us off guard.

[stormchazer]

I wonder too, if the invest behind develops and moves more NW, will this help the environment around this feature and impede the effect of the SAL. I think it is worth watching, especially with the MJO pulse entering the Atlantic Basin.