CrazyC83's Ernesto Forecast (5th forecast issued)

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

[Brent]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

I finally figured out your nickname!

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

I finally figured out your nickname!

It happened several times the past few years though!

[senorpepr]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

With all due respect... consider yourself slapped by a smoked salmon. Where is your meteorological reasoning for that sort of... stuff.

(I see your "meteorological reasoning", but c'mon...)

[6SpeedTA95]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

ummm 175mph? why that hight?

[sevenleft]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

I finally figured out your nickname!

It happened several times the past few years though!

It isn't 2005 anymore.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

ummm 175mph? why that hight?

I see it going over an explosively deep and warm pool of water in a low shear environment then...

[6SpeedTA95]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

ummm 175mph? why that hight?

I see it going over an explosively deep and warm pool of water in a low shear environment then...

TCHP and SST's are reasonable but I dunno that they're that good and given the interaction with dry air and the high pressure system I just dont see that happening at least not until well into the GOM. I dont even see it happening then, but that'd be the only real shot I'd think.

[senorpepr]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

I finally figured out your nickname!

It happened several times the past few years though!

Right.

Since 1995 we've had 170 named storms. Of those 170 named storms... six became category five. That's about 3.5%. To predict a tropical depression to become a category five when, statistically, there is a 3.5% chance (but really it's much less)... it's just crazy.

[Andy_L]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Yes, I think this may be a stretch and beyond most people's imaginations. However, I see this system going over some of the warmest waters out there and a decrease in shear. Hence, I feel this will become a monster storm and an extremely dangerous situation. Days 3 to 5 see rapid intensification. The track is to the left of the NHC's track.

Current - 13.2/63.9 - 1007mb - 35mph
12 hrs - 13.6/66.0 - 1000mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.4/69.1 - 991mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.0/71.8 - 988mb - 70mph
48 hrs - 15.9/73.6 - 980mb - 75mph
60 hrs - 16.5/75.8 - 979mb - 80mph
72 hrs - 17.1/78.6 - 976mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 18.8/82.4 - 947mb - 125mph
120 hrs - 20.6/86.6 - 904mb - 175mph

With all due respect... consider yourself slapped by a smoked salmon. Where is your meteorological reasoning for that sort of... stuff.

(I see your "meteorological reasoning", but c'mon...)

hahahahahahahahahahaha Thanks Senor....Pepsi outa the nose and against the monitor!!!!!!!

[Rainband]

175?? why not 200?? Reminds me of the Movie Coming to America when he was having money wired and he asked if it wasn't enough. She said 200,000 and she said why not ask for a cool million.

[Regit]

This thread is nearly identical to the "Tropical Storm Katrina" threads from last year, as well as the early Wilma threads.

Think about it for a second.

[Droop12]

People forget that last year was far from normal. A normal season hardly ever consist of a Cat 5. Remember before it got active the last few years, they were rare, now every depression which forms is a soon to be Cat 5.

[Beam]

Jesus man, were you the director of "Category 7: End of the World" or something? Grow a brain, okay?

[SouthFloridawx]

Jesus man, were you the director of "Category 7: End of the World" or something? Grow a brain, okay?

While I don't share this persons enthusiasm, you do have a right to make your own prediction. Anyway who knows it could come true you never know.

[Bailey1777]

55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.

[mike815]

wow geez get it right im the director of cat 7 and thank all of u. it was a fantastic film it was soooo great im not making another one

[Beam]

Okay, after re-reading my post I think came off as somewhat harsh up there, but still, a Category Five requires perfect, or very-near-perfect conditions. This thing is facing a far from perfect enviroment in the days ahead. I'm sure it'll be a hurricane, maybe even a category three, but I highly doubt the freakin' bottom is going to fall out. Don't let anything that transpired in the 2005 season affect your forecast reasoning. It's just common sense.

[Cyclenall]

wow geez get it right im the director of cat 7 and thank all of u. it was a fantastic film it was soooo great im not making another one

Who makes those movies anyways? I wonder how many weather fans wrote to them to please stop making them.

55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.

Instead of using the DUMM model, try the DRUM model. That model takes the tropical cyclone to landmass where drums are sold.

[Beam]

55N-100W 999MPH. Based off the DUMM model.

Instead of using the DUMM model, try the DRUM model. That model takes the tropical cyclone to landmass where drums are sold.

Nothing personal man, but that was pretty weak. Don't quit your day job ;)