18z GFS just coming out. It initialized ernesto perfectly.

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

H-18

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

h-24

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024l.gif


H-30

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_030l.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just a little more north...In which is likely with the fact there is a weakness to the north. Then the high build to the north after 24 hours. Should pull it more westward just north of Cuba.

[Vortex]

Loop through 30 hours. This is the 18z GFS just rolling in

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

H-42 Approaching south florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_042l.gif

[Scorpion]

If it goes north of Cuba it has more opportunity to strengthen.

[Stratusxpeye]

GFS has been onto this track for ahile even a few days ago. Everyone said its crazy but it continues its shift to the east even more. Coming into florida around or just west of key largo area. interesting.

[Droop12]

Yep, not inducing fear but thats the same area where the 1935 Labor day storm blew up from a TS to a Cat 5 in no time. Again, not fear mongering, Im just pointing out the fact that the waters are warm and ripe for strengthening before a landfall. Who woulda thought 48 hours ago that Miami was a potential target?

[Vortex]

18z GFS indicates a direct hit on South florida. Here is the loop through 60 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

This would be a very bad scenario. We could be dealing with an intensifying storm headed for one of the most populated parts of the US coastline in a short amount of time. Let's hope this doesn't pan out! I can hear insurance rates rising already, AGAIN!

[Vortex]

Loop through H-72. Should this verify the whole state may suffer.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_lu.shtml

[Scorpion]

Yes, could be a Cat 2 going up S FL. Very bad.

[SouthFLTropics]

Also, let's not forget that even if this thing is only a Cat 1 coming in it would most likely be in an intensification stage. Many that witnessed Katrina approaching Broward last year as a tropical storm were caught off guard when all of a sudden it was a Cat 1 hurricane. Still many didn't think too much of that until it hit and they saw that even a Cat 1 storm while it is intensifying is pretty frightening...The moral of the story is this...even if it is only a tropical depression when it comes off of Cuba, South Florida better not let their guard down!

BTW, this track is starting to look very much like 1979 David all over again.

SouthFLTropics

[jabber]

Did you catch the end of the loop... what comes from the west at 2. florida. Scary.

[johngaltfla]

Not to thread drift, but that second one scares the hell out of me ALOT.

[O Town]

Did you catch the end of the loop... what comes from the west at 2. florida. Scary.

Yes! That looks awful. It way too far out I know but still a scary sight.

[jusforsean]

Did you catch the end of the loop... what comes from the west at 2. florida. Scary.

Could you pls explain???? Tks I am weather impaired:)

[JPmia]

Did you catch the end of the loop... what comes from the west at 2. florida. Scary.

Could you pls explain???? Tks I am weather impaired:)

It is showing a storm hitting the East coast of FL...way into the future and should not be taken seriously at all!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

That is one amazingly terrifying forecast, at the beginning and the end.

[jusforsean]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml o.k. i see it on this loop i think yeah scary!!!!!!!!

[weatherwindow]

just a fyi note....that twin seafla hit scenario in that run is not unprecedented ...1928 aug cat 2(near jupiter) and the sept cat 4(palm beach/lake o)......rich