Tropical Storm Ernesto - Florida Impact Fcst#2 *unnoficial*

[Evil Jeremy]

once again, eccelent. what program do you use?

[sweetpea]

Great forecast Kevin. Not sure I like it coming out over Palm Coast though. Hopefully Cuba will destroy Ernesto. My husband had to go to home depot this afternoon for supplies for work this week (he is a carpenter) he said there were some people there already getting plywood, batteries and stuff. Nice to know people here are paying attention. We all remember Chalrie, Frances and Jeanne hitting here on the way out of the state.

[johngaltfla]

Kevin if that verifies, when I get power and internet back, I'll email you pics of the eye from ground zero. Something I've always wanted to do, but know better than to do it. If it's a 2 over me, I'll run out, snap a few pics when the eye passes over and post links to them.

Nice work Kevin, you really impress me with your posts and forecasts.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Kevin, now you're scaring me, that track goes right over Sanford.

[wxmann_91]

Kevin,
Great map and analysis. Fantastic job and keep up the good work!

[jamima]

great job kevin but I have a question. By the looks of your graphic us in cape coral should feel cat 2 force winds,is this correct? I know its just your opinion but I was just curious to see if I was reading it right. Thanks

[crazycajuncane]

Something good might happen for Ernesto... if he stays over land long enough he'll lose a lot of strength and depending on how long it takes to get it's act together.... it may only jump back to Category 1 status.... if that! This scenario you map out is not good for Florida, but better than a Cat. 4 or 5 headed towards Houston or New Orleans.

[MysticOne]

Very Good Job Kevin!

I don't like the track, but your logic seems reasonable and your graphics are superb! I guess time to get prepared and then just wait and see!

You have major potential and I know that you shall be very successful in your career! Keep up the good work!!

[secretforecaster]

WONDERFUL job Kevin!
And to think I am meeting some friends down in Orlando this weekend. I wonder if I should go down earlier to avoid driving through Tropical Storm conditions. I just wonder if all their flights will get canceled...

[VeniceInlet]

Kevin a little constructive criticism. Your forecasts tend to just place the storm and predict the intensity, and describe the predicted impact county by county without explaining how or why you came to your conclusions. If you go to the pro area and read Derek Ortt's or Jay (NEXRAD)'s forecasts they contain more meteorological information rather than just explaining what results will happen county by county if the storm comes in where you think it will.

I appreciate you are a student and want to learn. I have read your forecasts the last couple of years for a lot of the storms and I think you tend to make the same kind of assumptions for each storm without meteorological theory to back up your assumptions about why it will come in where it does and why you have forecasted the intensity you have. You also seem to "want" storms to come to your area of Florida and forecast them as such. In my opinion, forecasts would be more impressive if you would include the meteorological reasons behind your conclusions.

Just my two cents as an impartial observer. I'm going to give you strokes because you are a student and apparently have a lot of enthusiasm, interest and drive, but I feel you need to step it up a notch to gain some real credibility as a forecaster. You're ready to start moving up to the next step, I think. I hope you will see this post as constructive. When I see people basing decisions on what you're saying (instead of reading the pro met forum), I think it's especially important for you to think about the impact of what you're posting.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think the hurricane force winds will be as widespread as you've shown. IMO, they should probably be restricted to the coast being as Ernesto is only forecast to be a Cat. 1 at landfall. Strong TS force winds should then continue along it's path inland, but most areas should only recieve weak TS force winds as this does not appear to be a very large storm.

Remember: Orlando only recieved TS force winds (with gusts to hurricane force) during the much stronger (and larger) hurricane Frances and Jeanne, and only borderline Cat. 1/2 conditions with Charley. I think it is doubtful they would feel Cat. 1 force winds from a much weaker Ernesto, especially since it will likely only be a Charley-sized storm and is forecast to pass north of the city.

BTW: Even though I disagree with a few of the above points, I do want to say that you do make very nice maps. The time and detail you put into them is very evident.