Ernesto
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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HurricaneHunter914
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Ernesto
The slower he moves, the more of a chance he has to intensify right?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I would reaalllllyy like to stay away form forecasting in this forum, so let me kind of answer your question, but kind of skirt it too...
I think that there are a lot of factors at play here including:
1) The strength of ridging over the SE us/Fla
2) The strength and timing of a trough that comes along and weakens that ridge
3) Where Ernesto decides to develop a center.
The last issue is the most interesting one to me right now. Ernesto has reformed centers several times so far. If I were in Fla, I would be watching for where the center eventually shows up. If it shows up waaay to the west or east (vs current forecast), that throws a lot of the current forecast thinking for a loop.
This is why you are seeing so many people in the "talking tropics" forum trying to identify a center of circulation. It indicates that (1) the system still has organization (or is regaining it, and may be strengthening and (2) it provides some information reagrding the eventual track.
Hope this helps. Sorry I didn't directly answer your question. Not sure if the Mods have a point of view on whether we should be doing forecasting here???
I think that there are a lot of factors at play here including:
1) The strength of ridging over the SE us/Fla
2) The strength and timing of a trough that comes along and weakens that ridge
3) Where Ernesto decides to develop a center.
The last issue is the most interesting one to me right now. Ernesto has reformed centers several times so far. If I were in Fla, I would be watching for where the center eventually shows up. If it shows up waaay to the west or east (vs current forecast), that throws a lot of the current forecast thinking for a loop.
This is why you are seeing so many people in the "talking tropics" forum trying to identify a center of circulation. It indicates that (1) the system still has organization (or is regaining it, and may be strengthening and (2) it provides some information reagrding the eventual track.
Hope this helps. Sorry I didn't directly answer your question. Not sure if the Mods have a point of view on whether we should be doing forecasting here???
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