Based on Hi-res imager and cuban radar there is some support that the convection forming North of Haiti may indeed be the final center re-formation. If this is the cas this is very disconcerning and means a lot less time fealing with eastern Cuba.
Here is the latest imagery about 9 minutes old..This is very disconcerning if this is the center reformation.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
New center possibly forming further North
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tampastorm
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Brent
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bucman1 wrote:What does that mean for the track ,intensity??
If it misses Cuba, it could explode in the Florida Straits and then hit SE Florida while doing so.
Last edited by Brent on Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
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Brent
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I dunno, the Guantanamo Radar shows something though.
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... >ype=JPG
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... >ype=JPG
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caneman
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flyingphish
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It would be disconcerting because the storm would probably continue to slowly intensify, however it would probably interact with Florida sooner at points south of the current track projection.
I guess the worst possible scenario would be for this thing to dodge most of Cuba and then meander up along the Fl. W.coast. just offshore, but if it dodges most of Cuba..a landfall in Dade or Monroe county is not a crazy proposition.
I guess the worst possible scenario would be for this thing to dodge most of Cuba and then meander up along the Fl. W.coast. just offshore, but if it dodges most of Cuba..a landfall in Dade or Monroe county is not a crazy proposition.
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Dean4Storms
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THat far out the radar will be seeing the MLC and above, not the LLC. As Recon found earlier this storm is tilted toward the NE by about 25-35 miles if not further by now. The LLC is still on NHC track just to the west of that tip of Haiti about 30 miles or so. That is why the convection is stretched in that direction. If this continues Ernesto could become decoupled and really lose some steam.
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Re: New center possibly forming further North
Trying to follow the precise movement of a tropical storm with IR imagery is like trying to catch a rattlesnake by the tail. Without the benefit of an eye, it's extremely difficult.
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Dean4Storms wrote:THat far out the radar will be seeing the MLC and above, not the LLC. As Recon found earlier this storm is tilted toward the NE by about 25-35 miles if not further by now. The LLC is still on NHC track just to the west of that tip of Haiti about 30 miles or so. That is why the convection is stretched in that direction. If this continues Ernesto could become decoupled and really lose some steam.
To play devil's advocate, right before recon left the storm the storm was not nearly as tilted as u say it is now....and it probably isn't tilted much right now either....
But I still think the center is somewhere near the western tip of Haiti.
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stormspotter
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As I stated earlier today....
Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.
Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.
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I'm going with Scenario #2.
If the storm grazes Eastern Cuba, a turn to the WNW seems unlikely and a trip up the Bahamas would be more likely; well east of the Florida coast or at least leaving Florida on the weaker side if it does reintensify
Besides dissapation (not exactly impossible); this is the best scenario for Florida through Texas.
Maybe a miss of the U.S. completely!
Lets hope so..
If the storm grazes Eastern Cuba, a turn to the WNW seems unlikely and a trip up the Bahamas would be more likely; well east of the Florida coast or at least leaving Florida on the weaker side if it does reintensify
Besides dissapation (not exactly impossible); this is the best scenario for Florida through Texas.
Maybe a miss of the U.S. completely!
Lets hope so..
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