East Coast of Fla to ?

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DROliver

East Coast of Fla to ?

#1 Postby DROliver » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:20 am

It looks like Ernesto is a little right of the models and projected path as it makes landfall in Cuba based on recon fix VDM.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Also what role will this upper level low have on Ernesto?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Increase shear?

Induce a more north to north-north east track?

Ernesto's historical trend has been to the right of model conus and with the above factors the outcome of a possible Florida east coast storm is quickly increasing as is any threat to the SE U.S. coast.

Some questions:

Could Ernesto be left behind by the short wave?

Base on Ernesto heading at the present time will he have enough left to regain strength in the Atlantic?

Of course as I post this Ernesto will head west and get into the GOM
:eek:
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HURAKAN
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:22 am

I'll be ready to answer your questions by Thursday. :lol:
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#3 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:23 am

HURAKAN wrote:I'll be ready to answer your questions by Thursday. :lol:


yeah, you will have plenty of time to ponder it all when you have no juice.. :lol:
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:26 am

jlauderdal wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I'll be ready to answer your questions by Thursday. :lol:


yeah, you will have plenty of time to ponder it all when you have no juice.. :lol:


Ernesto has been so crazy that all past expectations are now history. Every moment we get something new.
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#5 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:29 am

That approaching trough looks pretty strong so out to sea seems like the most likely answer. Hope it arrives early.
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#6 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:32 am

Well with 4 days left till a possible impact on SE VA per the NHC track, rather than hope that the track is wrong im putting my hurricane plan in effect :eek:
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DROliver

#7 Postby DROliver » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:37 am

NASA is now rolling the shuttle back due to Ernesto.
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#8 Postby hiflyer » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:39 am

Dr O...so far it is still N and E of track even after the 5am from what I can see. Watching the vapor it is already trying to feed off the N coast of Cuba which should encourage additional N bias. After that....

FYI channel 4 mia cbs is now streaming
http://cbs4.com/
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#9 Postby cinlfla » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:59 am

DROliver wrote:NASA is now rolling the shuttle back due to Ernesto.




Ok when Nasa rolls the shuttle back you know your not just having an afternoon thunderstorm.
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